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Japan in Fall

Japan in Fall


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"Silence is one of the hardest arguments to refute."
--Josh Billings

Saturday, February 02, 2013

Weekly Regression Channels on the E-Mini Futures Indices

Price can continue to rise for quite some time to their +1 Regression Channel deviation level (solid pink), according to these Weekly line charts of the YM, ES, NQ & TF.

Of course, they could also drop to the -1 deviation level, but I think that's very unlikely, especially since the markets have been reassured by the Fed that they'll continue to provide monetary support for, what appears to be, some time to come yet.

No doubt, they (the Market Makers) will take advantage of that opportunity, while it's available...BUT, I'd suggest they'd better be quick about it (and do so convincingly, since the markets are at multi-year resistance highs and the "recovering" economy is still fragile and subject to global and domestic "surprises"), IF they hope to attract money from the sidelines (lest those potential investors become forever disinterested in the markets and find a "new game in town," if they haven't done so already).


***UPDATE February 5: The Department of Justice has just announced in a news conference today that it has filed a civil lawsuit against U.S. Credit Rating Agency, Standards & Poor's, alleging that it engaged in a scheme to defraud investors by inflating securities that misrepresented their true credit risks prior to the financial crisis. You can read more about this in this Bloomberg article and in this ZeroHedge article. We'll see if this is just the beginning of DOJ lawsuits that may come forward against other rating agencies and/or market participants.

It's precisely situations like this that do not instill confidence in investors. Market Makers have their work cut out for them this year to convince investors that "buying equities is the only game in town."  I, therefore, submit that any moves up this year are bound to be slow, choppy, and weighed down by negative (foreign and domestic) news announcements.