WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

***2024***
* Wed. Dec. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, February 26, 2018

Volatility/Index Ratio Death Cross Retests

In my 2018 Market Forecast post I had identified important major support levels with respect to the Volatility/Index ratios of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices as follows:
  • SPX:VIX Ratio -- 200
  • NDX:VXN Ratio -- 350
  • RUT:RVX Ratio -- 80

Since that date, these indices corrected by around 10% and their corresponding volatility ratios have produced a bearish moving average Death Cross formation on the daily timeframe, as price plunged below those major support levels.

As can be noted on the following three daily ratio charts, these support levels are represented by the blue horizontal line. The only ratio whose price is still below is the SPX:VIX ratio.

The Death Cross level is represented by the red horizontal line. The RUT:RVX ratio and the NDX:VXN ratio have come the closest to retesting this line, while the SPX:VIX ratio is still well below.

If we're to witness a resumption of an equity bull market, these ratios will need to break and hold above their Death Cross levels, and create a whole new uptrend on this daily timeframe, since the last two-year uptrend has been thoroughly decimated by this correction. No doubt that will take some time, so we'll likely see more volatile swings in the SPX, NDX and RUT in the meantime. Otherwise, failure to break above their crossovers, will likely produce another leg down on rising volatility.