Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. July 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. July 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events
IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains
with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Gridlock in Washington and the Impact on Equity Markets
It looks like everyone is tired and unable to do what they were elected to do.
If everyone's tired, how will this failure affect the progress of any other political items that President Trump has on his agenda?
And how will this affect equity markets for the remainder of the year? The SPX has looked pretty tired since March.
It's anyone's guess, I'd say...
Notwithstanding what I wrote on July 16th which describes new "BUY" signals in the SPX and the World Market Index, the last chart posted in that article (see Monthly chart of SPX below) shows that price is currently up against major resistance, formed by a long-term Fibonacci fanline (40%) and dating back to 1990, and is approaching an external Fibonacci retracement level of 200% at 2485 (taken from the highs of 2007 to the lows of 2009).
So, in the shorter term, we could see a "bull trap" occur prior to a decline in equity markets.
Combine this with today's announced failure of healthcare reform and the Fed's gradual removal of the low-rate punch bowl, and you can take your pick as to short-term market direction -- up, down, or sideways -- mixed signals in equity markets.
* P.S. July 24th...
However, inasmuch as the natural tendency of markets, in general, is to go up, I'd give slightly more weight to a continued advancement to the upside in today's politically uncertain environment...but, at a slower pace and with, perhaps, a bit more volatility than has been experienced, of late.
In this regard, keep a close watch on the SPX:VIX ratio, as a drop and hold below 250 will see volatility increase, and a drop and hold below 200 could see a panic selloff ensue in equities.