WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach Picnic

Beach Picnic
Enjoy your Memorial Day long weekend!

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary - 4-15-11

RVX (CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index) is approaching low levels reached pre-Sept. '08:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/f301ff69-2a59-41bb-875c-2534b6f418d5

Sugar hit & closed near lower Reg Channel on Weekly chart:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/d04e017a-8e1c-4c0d-95ac-68ae62a189f8

N.B. This chart is a 3-candle/day chart (the last candle finished Apr. 15)...Copper trying to find support @ 4.255 (still above 50sma):     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/2c6d13f4-2a22-439f-a091-b20e0c73b840

Weekly chart of Oil...finished back down & within upper area of uptrending regression channel:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/0c3ee6d1-a522-4a98-a90d-44af5d60864e


Gold has surpassed GS' target of 1480 which they announced on Mar. 17:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/aff3cbf4-63b2-45f2-8637-ca828da84018

John Murphy of StockCharts.com mentioned on April 17/11 that over the last week Energy & Materials have reversed from being the strongest to the two weakest sectors and that Staples & Healthcare have reversed to the two strongest...and that "it doesn't necessarily mean that a major top is forming, but does suggest that market sentiment has turned more defensive which usually suggests a market correction or a period of consolidation"...one ETF I'll be glancing at from time to time over the next while for a possible clue on any sector rotation is PHO for a breakout of either 20.61 or 18.68 on high volume:    
http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/b9c0b6c0-5290-45d0-89f1-b4beeb8275b5

ADVN/DECN Issues...60 min chart shows a pop up and close outside of the declining Regression Channel...note that the beginning of this channel was drawn from the highest close at the beginning of this last monthly Opt. Exp. period to the lowest close at the end (March to April/11)...this is the highest close outside the channel since the end-of-day close on March 30:    http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/073d7670-8316-450b-88d4-9435816a5520
                                ...The close on March 30 for the TF was 838.70 which was the highest daily close since the major market turnaround in March/09...Friday's close for the TF was 834.00...in and around these 2 price levels are a variety of Pivot Points for various timeframes: The Daily PP for Monday is 830.00...The Weekly PP for this coming week is 829.90...OPEX PP for May is 827.90...The Monthly PP is 818.40...the Quarterly PP is 817.50...other Pivot Points which are further away are: June OPEX PP is 799.40...1/2 Yearly PP is 720.50...Yearly PP is 718.60. Additionally there are a variety of Volume Profile POC levels on various timeframes which are in and around these 2 price levels: 824.30 for the March-April Opt. Exp. period, 846.00 for the month of April so far, 827.40 for the week just ended and 829.70 for Friday, April 15.

Daily chart of TF shows Volume Profile for the Monthly Opt. Exp. period which expired on Apr. 15...Opt. Exp. POC ended @ 824.30 (heavy red line)...price bounced @ confluence of 50sma, bottom of uptrending regression channel, Fib retrace & Fib fan lines):     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/6de0be6d-4498-4c76-b3ae-a5022bd376e6

Hourly chart of TF shows an ending on the week of a retrace up to a confluence level of a Fib extension & Fib fan lines:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/b928a9c0-a655-4968-8d52-d06589dd9018

Another hourly chart of TF shows the same ending on the week of a retrace into a confluence vicinity of other Fib lines:   http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/81ff6ece-edc6-4a63-a51f-68945d1f7989

CONCLUSIONS:  imo, the Daily bull uptrend is not over yet for TF as it is still within its most recent uptrending Regression Channel and has not yet made a lower swing low...but the low of 813.40 set on April 14 still needs to be confirmed as a higher daily swing low...price ended into some intraday Fib confluence resistance just below a 50% retracement from its high set on April 6 to its low set on April 14...additionally, TF ended just above sideways chop area shown on this 4 hourly (market hours only) chart:    
http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/9d121547-76d9-46bc-9518-fc24598b1ac9 ...further downside potential exists down to at least 800.00 (and still not violate its prior daily swing low of  770.20), but any major reversal on it below that level & on YM, ES & NQ would likely have to have to include commodities, currencies, ETFs, foreign ETFs, bonds...barring any catastrophic event in Japan...for now the NKD is high-basing on its Daily chart below its gap:     http://www.screencast.com/users/strawberryblonde/folders/Jing/media/1008b3a0-ffe5-4bcf-837f-b1b36bcdeb4e

I'll be watching to see how next week unfolds...and try and guage whether further intraday weakness develops below the 50% retracement level, or whether increased strength gathers above that area (835.80), generally, as well as keeping an eye on the above markets.