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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
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Events

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Feb. 8-12 ~ Shanghai Index closed for Chinese New Year holiday
* Feb. 8-10 ~ Hong Kong Index closed for Chinese New Year holiday
* Wed. Feb. 10 @ 10:00 am ET ~ Yellen testifies on Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before House Financial Services Committee
* Thurs. Feb. 11 @ 10:00 am ET ~ Yellen testifies on Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before Senate Banking Committee
* Wed. Feb. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. March 4 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Sun. March 13 ~ Daylight Saving Time begins for U.S. & Canada...click here for world times
* Tues. Mar. 15 ~ 2-day FOMC Meeting Begins
* Wed. Mar. 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement & Forecasts & @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* March 25 ~ U.S. markets & other world markets closed for Good Friday holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Monday, March 26, 2012

Pending Home Sales Still Declining

My post of February 23rd contained data showing a decline in Existing Home Sales and in the Purchase Price of Homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Data released on March 23rd also showed a decline in New Home Sales, as shown on the graph below.


Data released on March 26th shows a further decline (into negative territory) of Pending Home Sales, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect...renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction," this declining data, along with the declines noted above, do not confirm what the stock markets have been doing.

The stock (and commodity) markets have been going up since 2009, while Existing, New, and Pending Home Sales have basically been stagnant at their 2009 low levels...this is a huge negative divergence.

This is obviously an area that has never been resolved by the Fed's QE 1&2 and Operation Twist programs, nor by the politicians (Republicans and Democrats), since the 2007/08 financial crisis began.