Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts and comments in my Blog (posted in Eastern Time) represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of markets...
*World Indices *U.S. Indices *Futures *U.S. Equities & Sectors *ETFs *Commodities *Forex
...an expanded version of the "Observations" section in my private Daily Trading Journal.

*** N.B. to my readers: Although I stopped trading in July 2013, I still take a peek at the markets now and then and post the occasional article here on my Blog.

Paris

Paris

Important Updates on World Market Index

*** N.B. Important updates (the latest one is May 22nd) on World Market Index found at this link...

EVENTS

UPCOMING ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Mon. May 25 ~ U.S. Holiday: Memorial Day...markets closed
* Fri. May 29 @ 8:30 am ET ~ GDP + last trading day of the month
* Wed. June 3 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book
* Tues. June 16 ~ 2-Day FOMC Meeting begins
* Wed. June 17 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Announcement + 2:30 pm ~ Fed Chair Press Conference + FOMC Forecasts

Monday, March 26, 2012

Pending Home Sales Still Declining

My post of February 23rd contained data showing a decline in Existing Home Sales and in the Purchase Price of Homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Data released on March 23rd also showed a decline in New Home Sales, as shown on the graph below.


Data released on March 26th shows a further decline (into negative territory) of Pending Home Sales, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect...renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction," this declining data, along with the declines noted above, do not confirm what the stock markets have been doing.

The stock (and commodity) markets have been going up since 2009, while Existing, New, and Pending Home Sales have basically been stagnant at their 2009 low levels...this is a huge negative divergence.

This is obviously an area that has never been resolved by the Fed's QE 1&2 and Operation Twist programs, nor by the politicians (Republicans and Democrats), since the 2007/08 financial crisis began.