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Friday, July 15, 2011

Is this "dinosaur" tradable?...

How would you trade this "dinosaur?" This 30 min chart of the TF kind of reminded me of one today...




So what's next?...

"I used to be indecisive...now I'm not sure."
Author--Anonymous

How would you trade this "dinosaur?" Each candle represents a one-month Options Expiry period on the chart of the TF below...the current candle closed today...


I leave you with this "mirror image"...notice any similarities?...kissing cousins?...


Careful you don't get "eaten" by the hungry MM's tossing lines over both sides of the "boat" on a "fishing" expedition! We're at the "mouth" of this nasty creature now!

BTW, for those of you who like statistics, here are a few Pivot Points (potential support and resistance levels) that are in effect for the TF (price closed today at 828.50):
Monday's Daily PP = 826.10
Next week's Weekly PP = 831.50
July's Monthly PP = 814.90
July - August 1-Month OPEX PP = 819.70
July - September 3-Month OPEX PP = 806.20
July - September 3rd-Quarter PP = 821.50
July - December 2nd Half of Year PP = 827.20 (R1 for the 1st 1/2 was 856.80 and hit last week)
January - December Yearly PP = 718.60 (R1 for 2011 is 858.70...this level was hit last week)
*Note the confluence of all but the last one...these are important levels for their respective time periods and worth watching to gauge relative strength and weakness over the coming weeks and months. I would also add that the 1st half of the year's R1 level has been hit, as well as the entire year's R1 level, so, for now, it could be said that this e-mini futures index is in positive territory for 2011...however, the fact that the majority of the PP levels are so close to each other reflects the fact that overall value has not continued to increase during the first half of the year...hence the large consolidation as shown on the second chart above.

In addition, here are a couple of VWAP levels (Volume Weighted Average Price) currently in effect:
Weekly VWAP as it ended today = 831.30
Monthly VWAP as it ended today = 836.30
*This week's VWAP has shown relative weakness compared to the month's VWAP, and the volumes are higher than the first week of July.

Finally, here are a couple of Volume Profile POC levels (Point of Control) currently in effect:
Weekly POC for this week = 832.50
Monthly POC for the month of July = 837.90
*This week's POC has also shown relative weakness compared to the month's POC.

In conclusion and from these stats, I would venture that near-term support lies at 806.00ish and near-term resistance at 838.00ish for the TF. A fall below 806.00, and, subsequently, below 800.00 on increasing and sustained volumes could spell trouble for the bulls.

"They told me I was gullible and I believed them."
Author--Anonymous