Dow 30 Index Hits 26,000 as U.S. Stocks Gain $7.8 Trillion in Value Since 2016 Election

* See UPDATES below...

TODAY'S NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS:

• the Dow 30 Index spiked above 26,000 briefly today (Tuesday), as shown on the following Monthly chart
• the S&P 500 Index spiked briefly above 2800, as shown on the following Monthly chart
• the Nasdaq Composite Index spiked briefly above 7300, as shown on the following Monthly chart
• ...amid reports that measurements of the Wilshire 5000 Index indicate that U.S. stocks gained roughly $7.8 Trillion in value since the November 8, 2016 Presidential election, as shown on the Daily chart below.

As I mentioned in my post of January 11 regarding the Dow, major support sits at 25,125 and major resistance lies at 26,702 (two external Fibonacci retracement levels)...anything can happen in between in the coming weeks.

As an aside, the President is in "excellent health," as reported in a lengthy and detailed White House press briefing today by his Physician, following a complete physical exam last week by Dr. Jackson and a team of 12 specialists, which should reassure markets...if anyone was previously concerned (other than some media pundits and "arm-chair psychiatrists" who have repeatedly questioned his fitness, ad nauseam...it's time to report the "real" news, folks, not imaginary news based on pure speculation and hypotheticals...Americans deserve honest, unbiased news, based on facts).

Watch the full White House Press Briefing (including Dr. Jackson's report and interview)...

And, a bit of humour thrown into the mix...

* UPDATE January 17 @ 12:55 pm ET...

Will GE Ever Recover?

GE looks to be in trouble, as it has failed to hold onto gains made after the 2008/09 financial crisis and has fallen well below longer-term major support.

However, it has just risen above a major price and Fibonacci retracement resistance level (18.66), as shown on the following Monthly chart. It will need to hold above this level and gain strength to reach its next (price) resistance level around 21.40, and, ultimately, its next Fib level at 26.65, or higher.

Watch for any increases in volumes on such a rally to confirm a potential comeback. Otherwise, it may just be a temporary dead-cat bounce.

Will U.S. Banks Outperform the S&P 500 Index in 2018?

* See UPDATE below...

The following Monthly chart of the Financial Sector (XLF) shows that it has been on a strong rally since mid-2017. It's approaching major resistance around the 30.00-31.00 level (prior all-time high and double Fibonacci retracement levels).

The following Monthly chartgrid of XLF and five of the major U.S. bank stocks (GS, C, JPM, BAC & MS) shows, at a glance, which of these stocks has, either, outperformed and made a new all-time high, or, underperformed XLF.

The following Monthly ratio chart of XLF:SPX shows that price broke out above its first major resistance level of 0.0103 (confluence of price and its 40% Fibonacci retracement level) at the end of 2017.

The next major resistance is around 0.0115 (confluence of price and its 50% Fibonacci retracement level).

Given what I said in my post of January 12 ("...the SPX may see some whip-saw action in the coming days/weeks..."), XLF may continue to outperform the SPX for, potentially, some time -- perhaps the first couple of quarters this year -- until we see further clarity of the Fed's intentions (short and longer term) regarding interest rate increases, as well as further developments in the November U.S. mid-term Congressional election, by the third quarter.

If so, keep an eye on whether:

•  XLF can continue its push to spike through, and hold above, 31.00, 
• GS and JPM continue to maintain their upward momentum, 
• C, BAC and MS can strengthen their upward climb (all three have a long way to go to reach their prior all-time highs), and 
• the XLF:SPX ratio can hold above 0.0103 and climb higher

* UPDATE January 21...

Continuing to watch XLF vs SPX...

Will the XLF:SPX ratio hold above its Friday closing price of 0.0105 (now near-term support, as shown on the daily chart below)? This is a new key level, along with its longer-term major support level of 0.0103, as noted above.

Keep an eye on the RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators to see if they remain newly-bullish in support of a push higher for XLF.

SPX & XLF Monthly Price Comparison chart

SPX & XLF Weekly Percentage Comparison chart
(gains since Nov. 8, 2016 Presidential election)

XLF:SPX Daily Ratio chart

Volatility Rises as Major Indices & Sectors Extend Their Gains

As can be shown on the following Year-to-date percentage gained/lost graphs, U.S. Major Indices and Sectors extended their gains into Friday's close, except for Utilities and Consumer Staples.

However, they did so on rising volatility, as shown on the following SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart.

As I mentioned in my post of December 30, it will be important for price on this ratio to remain above 280 in support of a convincing argument that favours the entry of the SPX into a new bull-market phase, as shown on the following Monthly ratio chart. However, there's not a lot of wiggle room, since major resistance looms overhead at 300 (the upper edge of a long-term rising channel). So, the SPX may see some whip-saw action in the coming days/weeks...two levels to watch on this ratio.

It looks as though all 3 technical indicators are about to align and form a "SELL" signal on the daily timeframe. Watch for the RSI to drop and hold below 50, for a bearish crossover to form and hold on the PMO, and for the recent bearish crossover to hold on the MACD. Plus, if price holds below 280, we could see some weakness creep in on the SPX. Otherwise, we could see volatility drop, once more, while the SPX continues to rally.

SPX:VIX Ratio DAILY

SPX:VIX Ratio MONTHLY

Where's the Resistance on the Dow 30 Index?

* See UPDATE below...

Since the December 8, 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the Dow 30 Index has gained around 42.57%, as of 2:00 pm ET today (Thursday). It also crossed above a new all-time high of 25,500, as shown on the two Daily charts below.

The following Monthly chart shows that price is trading in between support (25,125) and resistance (26,702), namely two external Fibonacci retracement levels.

Of course, anything can happen in between these levels, but they may play an important role in the days/weeks ahead...ones to watch, especially 25,125.

P.S. The Dow made further gains this afternoon and closed up 205 points at 25,574, bringing gains since the election to 42.97%, as shown on the Monthly and Daily charts below.

* UPDATE January 12...

And, to close out the week, the Dow just kept on spiking ever higher, to close at a new high of 25,801.95...bringing its gains since the election to 44.24%.

U.S. Markets Make Titanic Gains Post-2016 Presidential Election

* See UPDATE below...

Since November 8, 2016, the following percentage gained/lost graphs show that, to date,

• 8 of 9 Major Indices increased 27.31 - 41.58%, while the 9th posted gains of 4.71%
• 6 of 9 Major Sectors gained 26.09 - 44.69%, while the remaining 3 gained 8.93 - 12.37%

It looks like someone was anticipating an improved economic future from the election results and bet heavily on U.S. markets to propel them to these gains...judging by the spike in volumes made on the Dow 30 Index every week, since then, and not seen since the financial crisis of 2008/09 (weekly charts below).

For further details on where markets have been and where they may be headed, check out my 2017 Market Wrap-Up and my Market Forecast for 2018.

* UPDATE January 5...

After the Dow 30 gained another 220 points by today's close, here's an updated view of gains made since the 2016 election...

Dow Hits Another New Milestone...25,000

Further to yesterday's post, the Dow 30 Index hit 25,000 today, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indices extended their rally above their Big Round Numbers, as shown on the following Daily charts.

We'll see if this breakout above December's consolidation zone lasts.

Meanwhile, volatility remains near record-level lows, as shown on the following Monthly chart of the VIX...

...and this year's breakout outpaces volatility, as shown on the following Daily ratio chart of SPX:VIX.

"Big Round Numbers" List: Two Down...One To Go

* See UPDATE below...

Further to my post of December 18, the S&P 500 Index hit 2700 today, making the "Big Round Numbers" list (the Nasdaq Composite Index hit 7000 that day and is trading well above today).

We're still waiting for the Dow 30 Index to hit 25,000, but it's well within striking distance...only 124 points to go (see Monthly charts below).

* UPDATE January 4 @ 12:00 noon ET...

The Dow 30 Index hit 25,000 today, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indices extended their rally above their Big Round Numbers, as shown on the following Daily charts.

We'll see if this breakout above December's consolidation zone lasts.

Meanwhile, volatility remains near record-level lows, as shown on the following Monthly chart of the VIX...

...and this year's breakout outpaces volatility, as shown on the following Daily ratio chart of SPX:VIX.

Happy New Year 2018

Thank you to everyone who visited my Blog in 2017 and to those who sent me thoughtful and encouraging emails...I really appreciated them. 😊

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A reminder that my Market Forecast for 2018 can be found here. 👀

May everyone be blessed with good health, wealth, peace and happiness in 2018...Happy New Year!

A Friend in Need... ❤