* See UPDATE below...
Scary but true...
Wake up, America!
Only 32 days until the midterm elections on November 8th. 😕
* UPDATE Oct. 12...
No doubt there are many others in the White House and in Congress that belong to this exclusive "whatdidIsayyesterdayandwhatdoIsaytoday" club! 😕
Again...who's actually in charge, with their faculties fully intact? 🤔
Check out the price action on the following monthly charts of the Commodity ETF (DBC) and the Agriculture ETF (DBA).
During intraday trading today, they are both hovering over their major support levels...25.00 for DBC and 20.00 for DBA.
With Crude Oil prices on the rise, once again, I anticipate that we'll see these major support levels hold, and prices on these two ETFs rise, as well.
If they hold, the first upside target price for DBC is 30.00, or higher, and for DBA is 24.00, followed by 30.00.
Watch for an increasing ATR on both of these to depict increased buying volatility [I've shown it in histogram format and the input value as one period (one month) to amplify that activity and confirm the long position].
Furthermore, rising commodity and agriculture prices may go hand-in-hand with rising US 10-Year Yields, so keep an eye on the next major resistance level of 4.00%, as shown on the following monthly chart of US10YT.
A break and hold above 4.00% may, eventually, push it higher to 5.00%, or beyond...depending on how aggressively the U.S. Fed raises interest rates in the coming months.
* See UPDATES below...
I last wrote about Crude Oil (CL) in my post of August 16.
At that time, I mentioned that it was trading in a "Chaos Zone" in between 80.00 and 100.00.
The monthly chart below shows that CL is trading above 80.00 and is still trapped in that zone.
Joe Biden's energy policy, which hamstrings the oil and gas industry in the U.S., while favouring ESG policies, is totally out of touch with current domestic and foreign economic realities and will, ultimately, cause oil and gasoline prices to rise further (Oil to, potentially, 147.27, or higher), as described in my article.
The following ZeroHedge report refers.
As you can see, Biden has foolishly been squandering America's valuable SPR oil supply (to manipulate the price of oil and gasoline in the lead-up to the mid-term elections in November), with only 22 days of supply left.
N.B. Furthermore, this next article describes, in (excellent) detail, why renewable energy sources (wind and solar) are costly, unreliable, and can't ever provide enough heat energy in the winter...and why fossil fuels and/or nuclear energy will still be required to meet all of America's (and the world's) energy needs.
CONCLUSIONS:
All of this proves that Joe Biden's reckless energy policy has been blown apart, along with his credibility and abilities as a leader, thereby destroying America's former status of being energy independent (created by former President Trump), in the process.
His Trillions of dollars' worth of spending have spiked the U.S. National Debt above a record high of $31 Trillion.
He's painted himself into a corner and compromised America's national security, as well as the prosperity of Americans, in the process. He does not deserve to continue as President.
Look for a "red wave" to occur in the November elections, with Republicans winning back the House and Senate, etc.
* UPDATE Oct. 6...
Why does Joe Biden favour making (expensive) fossil fuel energy deals with dictators and communist leaders, rather than his own oil and gas producers in America...e.g. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia (a previous oil supplier), and China (for wind and solar energy products)?
It (he) makes no sense! 😕
* UPDATE Oct. 7...
More idiotic 'wrongthink' from Joe Biden, as described in the report below.
Why has he been hellbent on weakening the U.S. in all aspects, from domestic policies to foreign affairs (e.g., Afghanistan), since he took office on January 20, 2021, when he cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline and gutted the U.S. oil and gas industry on DAY ONE? 🤔
I repeat, ad nauseam...It (he) makes no sense! 😕
Aaand...YES...he really is 'taking Americans for a ride!' 😑
WTI Crude Oil (CL) closed out a very strong week at Friday's after-hours' high of 93.30...and above the "Chaos Zone" mid-point of 90.00.
* UPDATE Oct. 12...
If price on the WTIC:OVX Ratio can rally and hold above the 200 MA at 1.9354, if the RSI holds above 50.00, and if the bullish crossovers hold on the MACD and PMO, we could see WTI Crude Oil bolt for 100.00, or higher.
Is anyone else tired of TV experts pundits repeatedly proclaiming spinning that the Fed is going to pivot (pause and reverse rate hikes) earlier, rather than later (as Fed Chairman Powell has repeatedly vowed) ...every time that markets make a new low?
Sheesh! 🤔
P.S. By the way, it seems to me that the UN has gotten "too big for its britches"...which wants to surveil global market traders'/investors' trades and control money flow and prices in world markets.
So, does this involve penalties, too? 🤔
* See UPDATES below...
The following monthly comparison chart illustrates the lock-step movements of Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) since September 2001.
Neither one recovered from the fall from their lifetime highs set in April 2007...right before the 2008/09 financial crisis.
They're both trading at or near their lifetime lows...just above zero.
No matter what pundits and bank executives say, and notwithstanding the fact that they were on the List of 29 Banks Deemed 'Too Big To Fail' by the G20 Financial Stability Board (published in November 2011), exactly how solvent are these banks, since charts don't lie?
Perhaps they funded one-too-many ESG company, or Bitcoin...the top 100 ESG companies are listed here.
The following monthly chart compares the Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) with the Euro (EUR/USD).
With some minor variations since October 1989, these currencies have traded in similar trajectories, as well. The Euro has experienced much more volatility and wild swings, while swings in the Franc have been tighter and more muted.
We'll see if the divergence of the lower monthly swing high set in the Euro in December 2020, versus the higher swing high of the Franc (leading to the sharp decline of the Euro below parity with the USD and to a lower swing low), will, eventually, drag the Swiss Franc below parity and a new swing low, as well.
Such a scenario [a CHF plunge to a new swing low (below its large sideways trading range) and hold below USD parity] could spell the downfall of Credit Suisse and, potentially, Deutsche Bank.
The following ZeroHedge article offers some insights relative to problems at Credit Suisse.
* UPDATE Oct. 5...
So, has CS bottomed? We'll see what happens.
Either way, their chart is portraying severe weakness...presumably reflecting credit risk, which is not something that should be ignored in the face of an impending global recession.
* UPDATE Oct. 14...
So, this latest news is interesting...
Keep an eye on CHF/USD and on CS for developments.
At the moment, they are both down on the day, while CHF/USD is down on the month and CS is slightly off its October low.
BUT...no Fed panic...yet...
* UPDATE Nov. 23...
So far, the cash exodus from Credit Suisse in Q4 has been massive and historic...with no end in sight.
Its stock, CS, has plunged, once again, to 3.83 this morning, retesting September's low, with virtually no support below, except last month's record low of 3.70.
* See UPDATE below...
Further to my posts of September 30 and September 24, the following will summarize SPX market action for the month of September, Q3 and year-to-date.
Please refer to the following three charts...namely, the yearly, quarterly and monthly timeframes for the SPX.
YEARLY TIMEFRAME:
A bearish engulfing candle has formed, so far, this year on the yearly chart, and it has a range of 1,234.49 points...the second largest on record, after the 2020 range. It closed at a new low in 2022 and well below its yearly pivot point of 3996.12.
The SPX:VIX ratio, shown at the bottom of the chart in histogram form, is sitting just above an important major support level of 100.00, and has fallen below both 5 and 20-year MAs...depicting extreme bearishness on this timeframe.
QUARTERLY TIMEFRAME:
Note the long upper spike on the Q3 candle, where it faked a bullish reversal, before falling to a new quarterly low close for 2022...and well below its quarterly pivot point of 3831.68.
The SPX:VIX ratio, shown at the bottom of the chart in histogram form, is sitting just above an important major support level of 100.00, and has fallen well below both 5 and 20-quarter MAs (which are about to form another bearish crossover)...depicting extreme bearishness on this timeframe.
MONTHLY TIMEFRAME:
Note the long upper spike on the September candle, where it faked a bullish reversal, before plunging and closing at a new low for 2022...and well below its monthly pivot point of 3763.01.
The SPX:VIX ratio, shown at the bottom of the chart in histogram form, is sitting just above an important major support level of 100.00, and has fallen well below both 5 and 20-monthly MAs (which formed another bearish crossover in April)...depicting extreme bearishness on this timeframe.
PIVOT POINTS FOR OCTOBER:
The following Pivot Point Calculator depicts the Pivot Point, 3 Resistance Levels, and 3 Support Levels for the month of October (taken from the data of the September candle)...which are possible upside and downside targets.
Note that the S2 target is in line with the first major support level of 3200, mentioned in my post of September 30, while S3 sits just above the next major support level of 2800, also mentioned therein.
CONCLUSIONS:
Finally, until President Biden drastically changes course from his 'Big Government Tax & Spend' agenda, and unleashes the oil and gas industry by dropping his overly-restrictive and punitive regulations, trade with caution, as I expect high volatility and large intraday swings to continue!
* UPDATE Oct. 10...
If JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon's projection is correct, a further 20% drop on the SPX (from 3600) would send it down to around 2880...and in line with the S3 target mentioned above...or 2800 on a downside overshoot.
While it may not hit that level this month, 2800 is a major price support level shown in my article of September 30...and a possible eventual target.
