So, there we have it...the Fed's downgraded economic outlook for the U.S. today confirmed Standard & Poor's recent credit rating downgrade. Apart from holding rates low for the next two years for the benefit of the banks with the likely net result of higher inflation to be brought about by a rise again in equity, oil and commodity prices, I don't see any net benefit for the average American...economic growth has slowed, consumer spending has slowed, the housing market remains depressed, unemployment has grown, and the national debt continues to accelerate at enormous rates. As I mentioned in yesterday's post below, fixing these problems lies with America's politicians. So far, I haven't seen any evidence that they've done the job that they were elected to do...and, so far, I don't have any confidence that they'll actually solve anything that produces quantifiable results before the next federal election. Why do I say that? Because they have not been able to work together to produce something meaningful for the average American since the last election...in fact, things have gotten worse. That's how I see the truth of the matter.
How do I translate today's actions by the Fed and the markets' reactions into how I continue to daytrade the TF? Also, how will I know if the plunge in price on the YM, ES, NQ & TF from July to yesterdays lows was simply the "C" of an ABC correction on the overall uptrend since the March 2009 lows, or if it is the first leg down and the beginning of a new downtrend on the Daily charts?
Paris Cafe
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Monday, August 08, 2011
Volatility in the Russell 2000 Index...
I was just about to sign off for the night when
I noticed this...here's a chart of the RUT...each candle represents one yearly
quarter...the current candle began July 1...it has fallen the same amount so
far that it did from April 2, 2007 to October 2008...1 1/2 years' worth of time
then compared to one month this time...looks like major horizontal support
is around 550...can you say "Volatility is up!" Good nite!
Xmas came early...
My post of June 23 refers: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/xmas-666.html
Xmas came early this year for the TF...it hit its target of 666 today and closed lower...
Xmas came early this year for the TF...it hit its target of 666 today and closed lower...
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Japan's Nikkei 225 Futures Index (NKD) at March 2009 Levels
Japan's Nikkei 225 Futures Index (NKD) opened down tonight at 9150 and is currently trading at 9125...a level that it was trading at by the end of March 2009 as shown on the Weekly chart below. A solid break and hold below this level, and below the pivot point of the March 14, 2011 weekly candle at 9092, would have me concerned about any short-term value in this futures index...I wouldn't be surprised to see the YM, ES, NQ & TF follow a further move downward (from tonight's open and lows so far) if that were to happen on the NKD.
Happy Friendship Day
Will see if the futures markets are feeling friendly when they open tonight...
Friendship Day: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Friendship_Day
Arbor Day: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbor_Day
Friday, August 05, 2011
Who's squeezing who?
Cyclical bull market ready to quit?
Or time for Mr. Market to be picked up...
And recharged?
As a daytrader, it pays for me to be flexible...
With eyes wide open...
Because right now either the Bulls or the Bears could be squeezed...
So I won't jump into a trade unless it meets my 1:2 risk/reward ratio and sets up according to my trading method...keeping in mind that volatility is up and the potential exists for further large and wild intraday swings, along with some further intermittent low liquidity gapping sprinkled in for good measure throughout the day.
Here's what I'll be keeping an eye on next week...as well as judging market response to next Tuesday's FOMC report from the Fed (as well as the Fed's language in the report...do I hear any "intellectual honesty" in the message?)...current prices on these various charts are either at or near a level of support or resistance of one form or another...
Or time for Mr. Market to be picked up...
And recharged?
As a daytrader, it pays for me to be flexible...
With eyes wide open...
Because right now either the Bulls or the Bears could be squeezed...
So I won't jump into a trade unless it meets my 1:2 risk/reward ratio and sets up according to my trading method...keeping in mind that volatility is up and the potential exists for further large and wild intraday swings, along with some further intermittent low liquidity gapping sprinkled in for good measure throughout the day.
Here's what I'll be keeping an eye on next week...as well as judging market response to next Tuesday's FOMC report from the Fed (as well as the Fed's language in the report...do I hear any "intellectual honesty" in the message?)...current prices on these various charts are either at or near a level of support or resistance of one form or another...
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Thursday's Plunge...YM, ES, NQ & TF
I will simply post a series of chartgrids of YM, ES, NQ & TF in various timeframes with a brief comment on each tonight, as well as a couple of other charts.
Grid #1 shows Weekly line charts with a regression channel overlayed which begins at the March 2009 lows. Price is currently trading after-hours (in relation to this channel) as follows:
YM = just above -1 deviation level
ES = just below the -1 deviation level
NQ = about 30% above the -1 deviation level
TF = just below the -1 deviation level
We'll see whether or not price stabilizes at this level...if not, they could eventually drop to the -2 deviation level.
Grid #2 shows Weekly charts with 2 sets of Fibonacci retracement levels overlayed...the first begins at the March 2009 lows and the second begins at the July 2010 lows. Price has reached a fib confluence "zone" on YM, ES & TF, while NQ is still showing relative strength on this grid. If price doesn't stabilize at this level, the next confluence zone is around the 38.2% level on the larger fib retracement.
Grid #3 shows 3-Day charts about which I've had several posts this week. The current candle began today and will end next Monday, the day before the Fed meeting concludes and reports at 2:15p.m. EDT. YM finally broke and closed the day below its March low and made a new closing low (on the Daily timeframe) for 2011. Whether or not NQ follows suit to make a new closing low for the year remains to be seen...as does whether or not the 4 e-minis will eventually reach their H&S targets.
Grid #4 shows a 4-hour timeframe with 2 regression channels...my latest post on this was yesterday. All 4 e-minis broke and closed below the -2 deviation level of the longer uptrending channel. YM, ES & TF also closed below the -2 deviation level of the shorter downtrending channel, signalling extreme weakness, and NQ is currently trading just above this level. All 4 e-minis are displaying extreme weakness on this timeframe. It remains to be seen as to whether price will stabilize or continue their high-volume drops.
Grid #5 shows Daily charts of several Volatility Indices. The VIX, VXV, VXO and RVX closed above the March 2011 highs today. We'll see if volatility continues to rise and if the VXN follows suit.
The last chart shows a Daily timeframe of Japan's Nikkei 225 Futures Index, the NKD. I've written a number of posts about this index because, for the most part, it has traded almost hand-in-hand on an intraday basis with the above 4 e-minis since the earthquake. Price closed below a critical level of support of 9320 today...this level was established after price bounced following the panic selling which happened after the earthquake in March this year. We'll see if this level now serves as resistance and whether the sell-off continues tomorrow.
Grid #1 shows Weekly line charts with a regression channel overlayed which begins at the March 2009 lows. Price is currently trading after-hours (in relation to this channel) as follows:
YM = just above -1 deviation level
ES = just below the -1 deviation level
NQ = about 30% above the -1 deviation level
TF = just below the -1 deviation level
We'll see whether or not price stabilizes at this level...if not, they could eventually drop to the -2 deviation level.
Grid #2 shows Weekly charts with 2 sets of Fibonacci retracement levels overlayed...the first begins at the March 2009 lows and the second begins at the July 2010 lows. Price has reached a fib confluence "zone" on YM, ES & TF, while NQ is still showing relative strength on this grid. If price doesn't stabilize at this level, the next confluence zone is around the 38.2% level on the larger fib retracement.
Grid #3 shows 3-Day charts about which I've had several posts this week. The current candle began today and will end next Monday, the day before the Fed meeting concludes and reports at 2:15p.m. EDT. YM finally broke and closed the day below its March low and made a new closing low (on the Daily timeframe) for 2011. Whether or not NQ follows suit to make a new closing low for the year remains to be seen...as does whether or not the 4 e-minis will eventually reach their H&S targets.
Grid #4 shows a 4-hour timeframe with 2 regression channels...my latest post on this was yesterday. All 4 e-minis broke and closed below the -2 deviation level of the longer uptrending channel. YM, ES & TF also closed below the -2 deviation level of the shorter downtrending channel, signalling extreme weakness, and NQ is currently trading just above this level. All 4 e-minis are displaying extreme weakness on this timeframe. It remains to be seen as to whether price will stabilize or continue their high-volume drops.
Grid #5 shows Daily charts of several Volatility Indices. The VIX, VXV, VXO and RVX closed above the March 2011 highs today. We'll see if volatility continues to rise and if the VXN follows suit.
The last chart shows a Daily timeframe of Japan's Nikkei 225 Futures Index, the NKD. I've written a number of posts about this index because, for the most part, it has traded almost hand-in-hand on an intraday basis with the above 4 e-minis since the earthquake. Price closed below a critical level of support of 9320 today...this level was established after price bounced following the panic selling which happened after the earthquake in March this year. We'll see if this level now serves as resistance and whether the sell-off continues tomorrow.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
3-Day Candles close today...YM, ES, NQ & TF
Yesterday's post below refers. The last red candle on the 3-Day chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF began on Monday and closed today...the next candle has begun in after-hours trading. As can be seen on the chart below, ES & TF both closed below their respective H&S "necklines" on this timeframe on high volumes...the necklines are based on closes, rather than prior swing lows, as explained in my post on June 27:
http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/ym-es-nq-tf3-day-candles.html
In the event that these H&S formations eventually actualize, the potential downside targets would be:
YM = 10537 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 1168 points)
ES = 1158 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 107.75 points)
NQ = 1953.50 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 237.25 points)
TF = 684.20 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 93.90 points)
Depending on whether or not we've seen a near-term low established by today's bounce into the close and whether or not the buying pressure continues, I've drawn Fibonacci retracements on the 3-Day chartgrid below (beginning from the year's high to today's low). Should the rally continue, the 40% retracement levels are:
YM = 12116
ES = 1285
NQ = 2322.50
TF = 795.10
In the case of YM, ES & TF, these retracement levels are near the green horizontal lines (which represent the high of the green candle which began on June 20 and from which the last rally ensued for all 4 e-minis).
However, sustained buying will have to firstly occur (and hold) above the last red 3-Day candle's pivot point (PP) which is as follows:
YM = 11916
ES = 1264.50
NQ = 2317
TF = 775.40
Below is an updated 4-hour chartgrid with 2 regression channels...I also made reference to these charts in my post below. Currently, YM is trading just above the -2 deviation level of the larger uptrending channel, ES is trading just below, TF is trading just below, and NQ is trading just above the -1 deviation level. It will be important for these e-minis to trade (and hold) above their -2 deviation levels in order to preserve the integrity of this uptrending channel on this intraday timeframe.
http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/06/ym-es-nq-tf3-day-candles.html
In the event that these H&S formations eventually actualize, the potential downside targets would be:
YM = 10537 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 1168 points)
ES = 1158 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 107.75 points)
NQ = 1953.50 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 237.25 points)
TF = 684.20 (range from yellow to red horizontal lines = 93.90 points)
Depending on whether or not we've seen a near-term low established by today's bounce into the close and whether or not the buying pressure continues, I've drawn Fibonacci retracements on the 3-Day chartgrid below (beginning from the year's high to today's low). Should the rally continue, the 40% retracement levels are:
YM = 12116
ES = 1285
NQ = 2322.50
TF = 795.10
In the case of YM, ES & TF, these retracement levels are near the green horizontal lines (which represent the high of the green candle which began on June 20 and from which the last rally ensued for all 4 e-minis).
However, sustained buying will have to firstly occur (and hold) above the last red 3-Day candle's pivot point (PP) which is as follows:
YM = 11916
ES = 1264.50
NQ = 2317
TF = 775.40
Below is an updated 4-hour chartgrid with 2 regression channels...I also made reference to these charts in my post below. Currently, YM is trading just above the -2 deviation level of the larger uptrending channel, ES is trading just below, TF is trading just below, and NQ is trading just above the -1 deviation level. It will be important for these e-minis to trade (and hold) above their -2 deviation levels in order to preserve the integrity of this uptrending channel on this intraday timeframe.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
3-Day Candles...update on YM, ES, NQ & TF
My post of July 29 refers: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/07/3-day-candles-on-ym-es-nq-tf.html
Here's an update on this 3-Day chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF...the current candle will close tomorrow. The comments noted in my previous post still apply. One thing I would add of note is the high volumes traded so far on the current candle, particularly on TF.
Furthermore, my post of July 28 refers: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/07/ym-es-nq-tf-slipping.html
Below is an updated 4-hour chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF with those 2 regression channels (which were mentioned in my post) overlayed on the charts. The failure of ES & TF today to hold price above the -2 deviation level of the longer-term uptrending regression channel weakens any argument in favour of a return by these 2 e-minis to the +2 deviation level...the longer they remain below, the stronger the argument becomes. YM is currently trading around this -2 deviation level, while NQ is trading below the -1 deviation level.
The -2 deviation levels are as follows:
YM = 11800ish
ES = 1260ish
NQ = 2220ish
TF = 774ish
Whether or not price returns to and holds above these levels on ES & TF, and whether YM & NQ hold above these levels, depends on tomorrow's directional sentiment and momentum. I'll be watching the US$, VIX, VXN, RVX, Gold futures, $TNX, XLF, Advance/Decline Issues, Up/Down Volumes (which registered a new 90-day low level on the sell side today), Cummulative TICK, as well as the 3-Day candle closes. Perhaps these will give clues as to whether or not the markets are rolling over or whether this is another set-up for a bear squeeze.
Prices on the following Daily chartgrid of variousVIX's are currently within a resistance zone, and, most notably, below the March 16 high...it will be interesting to see whether volatility picks up on these indices, and whether or not this high is taken out with conviction if these e-mini futures markets continue to drop at their current pace...even though TF broke and closed below January's, March's and June's low today (the Daily triple bottom), the RVX didn't return the favour in reverse.
Here's an update on this 3-Day chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF...the current candle will close tomorrow. The comments noted in my previous post still apply. One thing I would add of note is the high volumes traded so far on the current candle, particularly on TF.
Furthermore, my post of July 28 refers: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/07/ym-es-nq-tf-slipping.html
Below is an updated 4-hour chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF with those 2 regression channels (which were mentioned in my post) overlayed on the charts. The failure of ES & TF today to hold price above the -2 deviation level of the longer-term uptrending regression channel weakens any argument in favour of a return by these 2 e-minis to the +2 deviation level...the longer they remain below, the stronger the argument becomes. YM is currently trading around this -2 deviation level, while NQ is trading below the -1 deviation level.
The -2 deviation levels are as follows:
YM = 11800ish
ES = 1260ish
NQ = 2220ish
TF = 774ish
Whether or not price returns to and holds above these levels on ES & TF, and whether YM & NQ hold above these levels, depends on tomorrow's directional sentiment and momentum. I'll be watching the US$, VIX, VXN, RVX, Gold futures, $TNX, XLF, Advance/Decline Issues, Up/Down Volumes (which registered a new 90-day low level on the sell side today), Cummulative TICK, as well as the 3-Day candle closes. Perhaps these will give clues as to whether or not the markets are rolling over or whether this is another set-up for a bear squeeze.
Prices on the following Daily chartgrid of variousVIX's are currently within a resistance zone, and, most notably, below the March 16 high...it will be interesting to see whether volatility picks up on these indices, and whether or not this high is taken out with conviction if these e-mini futures markets continue to drop at their current pace...even though TF broke and closed below January's, March's and June's low today (the Daily triple bottom), the RVX didn't return the favour in reverse.
Gold...1660-1670?
My post of May 1 refers: http://strawberryblondesmarketsummary.blogspot.com/2011/05/case-for-gold-target-of-1660-1670.html
Below is an updated shot of the Daily chart of Gold futures. It has basically remained in uptrend since November 2008. It's currently still on track for a potential upside target of 1660-1670...particularly if the Dow breaks and holds convincingly below 12000.
Below is an updated shot of the Daily chart of Gold futures. It has basically remained in uptrend since November 2008. It's currently still on track for a potential upside target of 1660-1670...particularly if the Dow breaks and holds convincingly below 12000.
Monday, August 01, 2011
Current OPEX Candle...YM, ES, NQ & TF
Here's how the current Options Expiration candle is shaping up on this chartgrid of YM, ES, NQ & TF (this candle began July 16 and will close on OPEX Friday, August 19):
So far, NQ is still the strongest and is basically basing at the highs of this consolidation and just below the 38.2% Fibonacci fan line (which begins at the January 2003 low)...currently this percentage level is at 2400ish and is serving as near-term resistance on this timeframe. It remains to be seen as to which side of the 2011 consolidation range will be solidly broken and possibly re-tested, before a trend is re-established on these 4 e-minis...currently a balancing act.
So far, NQ is still the strongest and is basically basing at the highs of this consolidation and just below the 38.2% Fibonacci fan line (which begins at the January 2003 low)...currently this percentage level is at 2400ish and is serving as near-term resistance on this timeframe. It remains to be seen as to which side of the 2011 consolidation range will be solidly broken and possibly re-tested, before a trend is re-established on these 4 e-minis...currently a balancing act.
Japan's NKD fails to hold 10,000 yet again...
Japan's Nikkei 225 Futures Index, NKD, has fallen 300 points so far from today's high of 10,050 after failing for a fourth time since May to hold above the important 10,000 level as can be seen on the Daily chart below. I've written numerous posts on this index since it broke below this level after the earthquake in March. I'm wondering if it will test its intraday spike down to 9465 that was made on July 18 or at least to a rising trendline level of 9600ish. At the moment it is sitting on its 50sma (red) and a near-term level of support.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)