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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Friday, August 16, 2019

US 10-Year Treasury Yields Near 60-Year Lows

* See UPDATE below...

Once again, US 10-Year Treasury yields are approaching 60-year historical lows set in mid-2012 and mid-2016, as shown on the following monthly chart.


Shown on the next shorter-term monthly chart are the Rate-of-Change (ROC) and Average True Range (ATR) indicators (in histogram format and with an input value of one period).

Should this rate continue to fall, and, in particular, if it breaks and holds below the previous lows, I'd say that US equity markets would weaken considerably. In that regard, watch for accelerating larger spikes on both histograms for confirmation of further yield drops. Otherwise, watch for large sustained spikes to confirm a serious turnaround to the upside...with US equities strengthening.


* UPDATED August 18...

This Zero Hedge article outlines why negative rates do not bode well for world economies, markets and more...

Source: ZeroHedge.com


In this regard, the following daily chart of the MSCI World (ex USA) Index shows that price has dropped, once again, to just above the 1800 level.

The MACD histogram and RSI indicators are hinting that price is attempting to stabilize on this short-term timeframe and may reverse its decline that began in early July.


The following monthly chart of the MSCI World, Global (incl USA) Indexes shows that price is stuck at a triple-top formation, after failing to break out and hold above an all-time high set in January 2018.

The RSI, MOM and ROC indicators have yet to make a new swing high above those also set in January 2018.

In summary, keep an eye on both of these indices and short and longer term timeframes, along with their indicators, as well as US 10-Year Treasury yields and ROC and ATR indicators, for clues that world markets may, finally, be paying attention to negative effects of negative bond yields.