I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of October 17. At the time, volatility was creeping higher, as the SPX was making new highs.
As of 2:00 pm today (Wednesday), volatility has continued to rise, as the ratio dropped to just above the critical 200 "New Bull Market" level, as shown on the following SPX:VIX Monthly ratio chart.
The following 60-Day 60-minute ratio chart shows that, although one gap up has been filled, there are two unfilled gaps remaining, dating back to September 11.
A new "SELL" signal has just triggered on the Weekly ratio, as shown below.
The SPX nearly reached a potential target of 2600 on Monday, as shown on the following Daily chart, where it will encounter major resistance in the form of a +2 deviation level of a very long-term regression channel, as I outlined in my above-mentioned post.
Keep an eye on these charts, especially the 60-Day 60-minute, to see if the prior gaps are filled, and whether the ratio drops and holds below 200. If so, expect volatility to increase as weakness sets in on the SPX. If not, the SPX may try, again, to reach 2600, before such a scenario may develop.
In any event, the SPX may whipsaw until after the next Fed meeting concludes on November 1, before it, either continues to advance to new highs, or we see a pullback, and gap fills on the intraday ratio.
Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. May 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Fri. May 14 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Retail Sales Report & Core Retail Sales Report
* Wed. May 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. June 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 4 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. June 16 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.