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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...




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Thursday, June 29, 2017

Volatility Heats Up...Summer Selloff Ahead?

The following three ratio charts compare the strength of the NDX, RUT, and SPX with their respective Volatility Index.

The following NDX:VXN ratio chart shows that NDX is sitting in a precarious spot at a rising trendline, but well below what is now major resistance. All 3 technical indicators are still in "SELL" mode, as rising volatility outstrips price performance.

Compare that to where the RUT:RVX ratio is sitting...just above major support, but all three technical indicators are signalling weakness in the RUT, with the potential of rising volatility. We'll see if Small Caps get hit by sellers next.

Similarly, the SPX:VIX ratio is sitting just above major support, but all three technical indicators are signalling weakness in the SPX, also with the potential of rising volatility. We'll see how Large Cap stocks fare over the coming days/weeks.

Although volatility is much higher on the NDX at the moment (no doubt driven by the recent selling in the Tech FAANG stocks), it's still outperforming Small Cap and Large Cap stocks in percentages gained year-to-date, as shown on the comparison chart below. However, if it breaks and holds below the rising trendline mentioned above, we could see quite a selling domino effect occur in all equities.

The last chart grid shows that all five FAANG stocks are immersed in their respective consolidation zones, but have fallen to either their 50-day moving average or price support levels. If these break and hold below support, this could, indeed, confirm overall weakness in equities and begin a summer selloff in earnest.