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Thursday, January 14, 2016

Beige Book Report of 01/13/16: Not A Rosy Picture For U.S.

The following information is from Nasdaq.com...you can see that this latest Beige Book report does not paint a rosy picture for the U.S. economy.

Unless we see new, stimulative fiscal policy emanating from the U.S. Government this year (which is unlikely because of the upcoming Presidential election on November 8th), I'm not expecting any kind of drastic improvement this year. So, expect more volatility, without a clear trend in the markets, until then.

2016 Economic Calendar
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Beige Book 
Released On 1/13/2016 2:00:00 PM For 1/13/2016 2:00:00 PM
The Beige Book is not painting a picture of overwhelming strength for the U.S. economy, especially for a Federal Reserve that has begun to lift interest rates. Growth in consumer spending is described as no better than slight to moderate with holiday shopping held down especially by weakness in apparel sales. Auto sales are described as mixed with activity beginning to drop off from prior strength.

And the Beige Book is not picking up indications of price strength. On the contrary, price pressures are described as minimal and wage pressures as flat to moderate. Agriculture is another weak area, with farm incomes stressed by both flooding and by drought and with prices low and falling. The latter also reflects in part weak global demand and the strong dollar, two factors that are also behind what is described as weakening in the manufacturing sector.

One area of strength is real estate, both residential and commercial. Moderate gains in house prices and commercial rental rates are cited. But this report offers far more for the doves than the hawks and could justify perhaps doubts whether the Fed will implement four rate hikes this year as planned.