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Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Re-test of 98 in Store for U.S. Dollar?

The U.S. Dollar is back above the major support level of 95 after a brief break below, as shown on the Daily chart (cash index) below. As I mentioned here and here recently, I believe a large move is coming, one way or the other, in currencies. The RSI indicator is back above the 50 level, hinting that bulls are back in charge of $USD.

A re-test of 98 is not out of the realm of possibilities next and will be the first major resistance level that will need to be overcome to convince traders to pile in on this trade...assuming price breaks back (and holds) above the declining 50 MA around 96 immediately above today's (Tuesday's) close...coincidentally, there is a confluence of major resistance at the 96 level -- formed by a Fibonacci fanline and mid-Bollinger Band intersect -- as shown on the next Weekly chart of the U.S. $ Futures Index. Watch for the RSI to stay above the 50 level  (on the cash index) to confirm such a rally...as well, we'll need to see a higher high on the RSI at the 98  price level as a sign of bull conviction for any sustainable move higher.