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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

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IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Forecasting the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index...My Dumb Luck?

My post of April 5, 2014 refers.

The following Daily chart of the ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index) shows what happened from that date up to the present. The ensuing swings overshot my projected targets a bit, and it took a bit longer for the "FROTH" level around 2100 to be reached, but price action generally followed the path that I forecast a year ago...price has been consolidating, basically, below that level since December 2014. Additionally, volatility did become the "name of the game" over those weeks and months, as I had anticipated.


As can be seen on the next Daily chart of the ES, 2100 represents a double Fibonacci confluence major resistance level that will have to be solidly overcome and held before bulls can resume any kind of sustainable uptrend. A break and hold below 1992 could see bears take the ES down to 1813, or lower. Until we see a solid break one way or the other, I expect volatile swings to continue in both directions to plague both the bulls and the bears.