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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

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IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...

Friday, March 27, 2015

Big Caps Fizzle While Nasdaq and Foreign Markets Sizzle

The following Year-to-Date Percentage Gained/Lost graphs are presented without individual comment to, simply, show where money has flowed in a variety of world markets since January of this year (until Friday's close).

This year, the majority of the money has flowed into the Nasdaq, Biotech, Homebuilders, Healthcare, the U.S. Dollar, U.S. Bonds, Silver, Russia, China, Japan, Australia, Germany, France, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. The Dow 30, S&P 100, and S&P 500 Indices have remained, basically, flat, while Dow Utilities, Dow Transports, and Nasdaq Transports are down on the year, and Small Caps have made some minor gains.

U.S. MAJOR INDICES




U.S. MAJOR SECTORS + Biotech



U.S. MAJOR SECTORS + Homebuilders



MAJOR EU COUNTRIES



EMERGING MARKETS + BRICs



CANADA, JAPAN, BRITAIN, AUSTRALIA + MAJOR WORLD MARKET INDEX



COMMODITIES



COMMODITIES + LUMBER + HOMEBUILDERS + USD + US BONDS



MAJOR CURRENCIES



The following 1-Year percentage gained/lost chart shows the trend of the S&P 500 Index compared to the U.S. Dollar. They were, generally, in an uptrend until January of this year, whereupon the USD continued its gains, while the SPX consolidated in a large sideways range. From the beginning of March, the spread between them accelerated to the greatest extent seen over this one-year period, and they have been making some large volatile moves since then.

Whether this points to a capitulation and shift of money flow from the USD and into SPX (or whether we see a major correction in the SPX, with money flowing back into the USD) remains to be seen...it may be worth tracking the spread between these two to gauge such a shift in sentiment.


Furthermore, inasmuch as Europe has made such extensive gains, so far this year (compared with U.S. markets), we'll see whether this pace continues, or whether some money is taken off the table soon. You can see on the following 1-Year percentage gained/lost chart that the spread between the German DAX and the Euro has reached an extreme level...in fact, the next chart, which begins in January 1999, shows this anomaly to be highly exaggerated and unprecedented.

The German DAX may, in fact, be well overdue for a major correction...another spread to watch closely over the near term.