WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Beach

Beach

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. July 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. July 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains
with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Macro & Micro Views of World Markets, Commodities, & Currencies

I'm showing a comparison, in graph format, of the percentages gained/lost of a variety of world market indices, commodities, currencies, and U.S. ETFs.

The first graph in each category shows the percentages gained/lost from March 2, 2009 to November 13, 2014.

The second graph in each category shows the percentages gained/lost Year-to-Date.

U.S. Major Indices




9 Major U.S. Sectors + Homebuilders ETF




Germany, France + PIIGS




Emerging Markets + BRIC Countries




Canada, Japan, UK, Australia + World Index




Commodities




Currencies




Commodities, Lumber, Homebuilders, USD + U.S. Bonds




OBSERVATIONS:
  • Transportation and Utilities are favourites this year, while Small-Caps are flat for the year (but remain strong from the beginning of March 2009).
  • The "defensive" sectors are more in favour this year, while Energy and Homebuilders have lost ground.
  • Although most of Europe is under water for this year, Germany and Ireland still hold substantial gains from the beginning of March 2009...Greece is the weak link in this group.
  • Although Russia is under water for this year, it still holds a fair amount of gains from March of 2009, while emerging markets are flat for the year...and China has finally made some gains for the year.
  • Although a substantial amount of profit-taking has occurred in the UK, Australia and overall World markets, their gains are still substantial from March, 2009...although Japan is leading in this category from the beginning of March 2009, its gains have slowed for this year.
  • The only commodity that has made any gains for this year is the Agricultural ETF...although WTIC crude oil and Brent crude oil have taken substantial losses this year, they still hold substantial gains from the beginning of March, 2009.
  • The only currency to have made any gains for this year is the U.S. $, but it remains flat from the beginning of March, 2009, as does the Euro, while the Aussie $ remains in the lead.
  • The Homebuilders ETF and Lumber have certainly outpaced the gains from the beginning of March 2009 when compared with Commodities, U.S. Bonds, and the U.S. $...meanwhile, U.S. Bonds and the U.S. $ have been favoured this year.

CONCLUSIONS:

I'd say that, unless confidence returns in the housing sector, along with Lumber and Copper, as well as Small-Caps and the "riskier" sectors, we'll see reduced rates of returns in any continued bull market in the U.S. as it remains in a "tentative and "defensive" mode, or we may even see a substantial market slump until these markets can prove that a meaningful sustainability is possible (without support from the Fed). In any event, these categories may remain subdued or choppy until other world markets (Europe, Japan, Brazil, and China), including commodities, pick up.