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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

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NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Beware of the "Abe" Rhetoric

As I reported in this recent post on Japan's Nikkei Futures Index, price has entered "froth" (major resistance) levels seen in the beginnings of the 2007/08 financial crisis. As of tonight (Tuesday), price has held above the "line-in-the-sand" level of 16,666 and is now trading at 17,325, as shown on the Weekly chart of NKD below.

Beware of speculation that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may be "considering dissolving parliament to shore up support," as reported today in this Bloomberg article. This report may have simply been released to stir up emotions in the market place to lure short-sellers into the mix at these critical levels.

Volumes spiked on November 4th after retreating from a high of 17,480 set on the 3rd and have been subdued since that day (including today). Watch for a climb and hold above 17,480 to the next confluence resistance level of 18,365...if we see a build in volumes approaching that level, we may see a continued push above resistance...if not, or if volumes decline, this may signal that a formidable decline is imminent somewhere in between 16,666 and 18,365 down to, potentially, 15,000, 13,700, or 12,600 (or even lower). In any event, we may see increased volatile and large overnight and intraday swings occurring in between those levels for awhile until a firm direction is established.

In my opinion, a rejection of the Nikkei at these levels is a rejection of Japan's economic recovery and Prime Minister Abe's policies...negative effects of such a rejection may very well spill over into the U.S. and European markets.

No doubt, markets will be awaiting any "new" news or promises from the upcoming joint Fed-ECB conference in Washington on November 13th. UPDATE November 13th: no new news, as reported by Nasdaq.com.