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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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Spring

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
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* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Oil's Slippery Ride

Further to my post of July 17th, once again, Oil finds itself testing rising channel support on the Weekly chart below. At the moment, it's trading in between the 50 sma (red) and the 200 sma (pink) in an attempt to break out of this range either to the upside or the downside. Its recent rally didn't quite make it all the way up to the "mean" (mid-Bollinger Band).


However, price on the Commodities ETF (DBC) and the AUD/USD forex pair Weekly charts below did manage to rally up to push slightly beyond their "mean", but pulled back to it on DBC and just above on AUD/USD in Monday's action.


A failure to hold the channel support on Oil and the "mean" on DBC and AUD/USD could well send all of these back down to their lower Bollinger Band or lower. A move lower could negatively influence equities.

In this regard, 64.00 to 72.50 represents an important confluence zone for the SPX:VIX ratio pair....price closed just above 72.50 on Monday. A break and hold above 72.50 would send the SPX higher to, potentially, the last swing high, or higher, while a break and hold below 64.00 would send it lower to, potentially, the June lows, or lower...worth watching to gauge either a strengthening or further weakening in equities.