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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Back to the "Mean"

Where is Oil headed? A clue may lie in the AUD/USD forex pair Weekly chart.

As you can see from the three Weekly charts below of the Commodities ETF (DBC), AUD/USD, and Oil, the Aussie $ closed above 1.03 on Tuesday, and price now sits just above a confluence of its mid-Bollinger Band ("mean"), the 50 sma (red), and a price apex level of 1.0274 (which also happens to sit near the left shoulder of a potential large and unwieldy Head & Shoulders formation). It's important that this confluence level hold as support in order that the Aussie $ may continue upward to, potentially, its upper Bollinger Band or higher.

Price on Oil sits just below a Fibonacci confluence level of 90.18 and just above the bottom of a large uptrending channel. Should the Aussie $ continue to rally, we may see Oil reach its "mean" at 94.89 (which is also a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the mid-Bollinger Band, and the 50 sma) or continue higher to, potentially, its upper Bollinger Band.

Furthermore, it wouldn't hurt to see DBC hold above its mid-Bollinger "mean" and continue its trek up to its confluence level of 27.47 or higher in support of these moves.

A failure to move higher on one of these three could well negatively influence the others...worth watching all of them to see if any weakness develops.