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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
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IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Back to the "Mean"

Where is Oil headed? A clue may lie in the AUD/USD forex pair Weekly chart.

As you can see from the three Weekly charts below of the Commodities ETF (DBC), AUD/USD, and Oil, the Aussie $ closed above 1.03 on Tuesday, and price now sits just above a confluence of its mid-Bollinger Band ("mean"), the 50 sma (red), and a price apex level of 1.0274 (which also happens to sit near the left shoulder of a potential large and unwieldy Head & Shoulders formation). It's important that this confluence level hold as support in order that the Aussie $ may continue upward to, potentially, its upper Bollinger Band or higher.

Price on Oil sits just below a Fibonacci confluence level of 90.18 and just above the bottom of a large uptrending channel. Should the Aussie $ continue to rally, we may see Oil reach its "mean" at 94.89 (which is also a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the mid-Bollinger Band, and the 50 sma) or continue higher to, potentially, its upper Bollinger Band.

Furthermore, it wouldn't hurt to see DBC hold above its mid-Bollinger "mean" and continue its trek up to its confluence level of 27.47 or higher in support of these moves.

A failure to move higher on one of these three could well negatively influence the others...worth watching all of them to see if any weakness develops.