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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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Thursday, January 28, 2016

Thurs. Jan. 28/16: Possible Bull Trap Today

*SEE UPDATES BELOW...

As at the time of writing this post (9:45 am ET), the Daily Heikin Ashi candles on the E-mini Futures Indices (YM, ES, NQ, TF & NKD) are hinting that today's rally may be a bull trap...I'll post an update after today's close.


*UPDATE (after Thursday's close):

Here's how these E-mini Futures Indices closed today. The Daily Heikin Ashi candle chartgrid below shows a lack of conviction or strength, at this time, on the part of buyers. In months past, we'd normally see a V-shaped bounce on this type of candle chart, with a decent rally following...but such is not the case now.


A look at the Weekly Heikin Ashi Candle chartgrid below shows, that on a weekly basis, no reversal pattern is yet seen.

I'll post another update after tomorrow's close to see how this week's candle closes.


I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of January 13th. The Monthly ratio chart below of SPX:VIX shows that price bounced a bit since then, and is now stuck in, what I've called the "Uncommitted Zone."

Until we see a move (with conviction) above (which stays above) the 100 Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand level, we'll continue to see whippy, volatile moves, which lack direction...or even see the next major plunge in the SPX and equities, in general. The Momentum indicator is still below zero on this timeframe...I'll need to see it pop above (and stay above) zero on any rally to confirm buyer conviction.

I'll post another update after tomorrow's close to see how this month's candle closes.


***N.B. This stunning announcement Thursday evening by the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates into negative territory immediately sent world markets and currencies roiling overnight...Japan's Nikkei Index made several harrowing round-trip spikes, totaling approximately 2,180 points! I'll post more on the effects on markets after Friday's close.


*UPDATE (as of Friday @ 10:30 am ET):

World markets rallied overnight and North American equities continue the bounce, as noted below (more later)...

Source: www.indexq.org

*N.B. See my next UPDATE at this link.