What's really changed since Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on August 5, 2011?
One year has passed, and the SPX has gone from a low of 1074.77 on October 4, 2011 to a high of 1426.68 yesterday (Tuesday), as shown on the Daily chart below. A double top has formed at major resistance.
The credit rating has not been upgraded. The Fed also downgraded the economic outlook at their meeting on August 9, 2011, as mentioned in my post of August 9th. The Fed remains committed to holding long term interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Europe's economic condition has weakened. The global economies have slowed. And, finally, the U.S. National Debt continues to rise (unabated) to all-time highs each second. The Fiscal Cliff looms.
Who is convinced that economic and fiscal conditions have improved since then? The only ones, so far, have been the buyers above the yellow arrows. No doubt they will begin to take profits at current levels and re-think their positions after the next FOMC meeting in September. A drop and hold below June's lows of this year would confirm that their sentiment has changed.
Welcome and thank you for visiting!
The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
please read my full Disclaimer at this link.
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Mon. Feb. 19 ~ U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day Holiday
* Wed. Feb. 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. Mar. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. Mar. 9 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. Mar. 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. March 21 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. May 2 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events