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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

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ECONOMIC EVENTS

 UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

***2025***
* Wed. Sept. 17 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Friday, June 11, 2021

Media Bias? 😒

You be the judge...


Versus...


More "Icky" Faux Pas Political Moments By VP Harris

TGIF...

This report from Fox News...

"Users on Twitter roasted Vice President Harris for passing out cookies made in her likeness to reporters on a plane while travelling to meet with the President of Guatemala."

A bit narcissistic, no? Imagine if former President Trump had done that. 😏


Another rather "icky" loss-of-cool moment was committed by Kamala Harris on the international scene -- President Biden's appointed 'Border Czar' -- who, embarrassingly (for Biden), has, conveniently, blamed the countries of immigrant origin for their failed policies, rather than own up and admit that her own President caused it on Day One of his administration (by the way, why is she -- and Biden -- refusing to visit the border?).

At what point does Joe Biden's 'open border' policy and resultant illegal immigration surge become a national security threat and a dereliction of duty?

As soon as he took office in January he reversed all the policies of the previous administration...that were working to keep illegal immigration down. He also recklessly abandoned the completion and funding of the southern border wall, leaving all the wall materials spread out on the ground along the border to rot...thus killing hundreds of construction jobs and jeopardazing the lives of U.S. Border Guards and American citizens (especially along the border) in the process.

Since February, over 170,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the U.S. southern border per month, who've been apprehended (and likely that many more who have not) from dozens of foreign countries. Among them have been known terrorists, murderers, human traffickers (who are turning their victims into slaves, according to FBI Director Wray), rapists, gang members, drug smugglers/cartels, etc. 

So, modern-day slavery is back in the U.S.A., thanks to Biden's immigration and border policies.

Source: ZeroHedge

Too bad Biden doesn't put as much priority on defending his own borders, as he does that of Ukraine's...

Source: ZeroHedge


This is definitely another "icky" and "sticky" issue for Kamala...and Joe...and a serious (and preventable) threat for all Americans and the U.S. economy.


* UPDATE July 11...

It gets worse.

It seems like VP Harris thinks most Americans are stupid, including Blacks...how does she think they've been able to vote all these years?

When will she, President Biden and other Democrats stop insulting voters?

Better yet, when will Americans stop supporting and enabling these politicians...and reject their constant accusations of 'racist,' etc.? Because, it sounds like they don't like Americans and America very much from their constant denigrating rhetoric.

So much for Biden's hollow promise of 'unity.'



* UPDATE September 8...

Damning news just in about VP Kamala Harris...really makes you question her judgement and motives...



* UPDATE October 12...

Cringe-worthy White House 'fake press productions' involving VP Kamala Harris and President Biden are NOT impressing anyone. Instead, they're being widely ridiculed.

The 2022 and 2024 elections can't come soon enough! 😕



U.S. SPX Index vs. Brent Crude Oil/Russian RTSI Index/German DAX Index

What do all of these have in common?

First of all, take a look at the monthly comparison chart below of Brent Crude Oil, Russia's RTSI Index, and Germany's DAX Index.

From around April 2015, these three have traded virtually lockstep, with varying degrees of strength on their upward push from around April 2020.

While the DAX has rallied to new all-time highs, the RTSI is trading around major (long-term) resistance, and Brent is approaching major (long-term) resistance around 80.00.

The Balance of Power (BOP) (pertaining to Brent) is nearing its all-time historical high, as the buyers are currently in control.

We may see a final spike upwards in Brent towards 80.00, dragging the RTSI and DAX Indices along with it, before they all, either take a pause and consolidate, or pull back.

However, look for a possible deviation during such a spike by either or both the RTSI and DAX, potentially signalling that buying is weakening in Brent

Keep an eye on the Brent BOP to confirm either scenario.


Price on the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is nearing its +10 standard deviation on its long-term uptrending regression channel, at approximately 4300. Minor support sits around 4200.

The SPX:VIX Ratio is shown in histogram format in the bottom portion of the chart. Price on this ratio is just below its all-time historical high...representing major resistance. 

As you can see, it's had great difficulty breaking and remaining above the 250 level. It's first level of support is 200...followed by 150 and 100, respectively. 

A drop and hold below 200 could see the SPX drop to around 4200. A drop and hold of the ratio 5 MA below 200 could send the SPX sharply below 4200...in short order. 

Keep an eye on this ratio and 5 MA for clues as to direction and strength of the SPX.


CONCLUSIONS:

So, keep an eye on possible spikes in Brent towards the 80.00 level and the SPX towards 4300 before we see any kind of pause and consolidation of all of the above markets, or a sharp, swift pullback.

No doubt, these markets will react following the outcome of President Biden's meeting on June 16 with President Putin in Geneva, Switzerland, so we could very see a run-up until then.

Therefore, I'd say that, in the near term, the common denominator is Geneva's meeting, the outcome of which may be the catalyst for a sharp, swift change in direction for the SPX, RTSI, DAX and Brent.

We'll see what happens.

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Money Flow In Markets Year-To-Date

* See UPDATE below...

The following graphs show which segments of the markets have been the most favoured year-to-date.


With Gold flat for the year, it makes me wonder about the timing of President Macron's remarks today, and whether he has a particular buyer waiting in the wings ready to snap Gold up at 'bargain' prices. 🤔

It's currently sitting just above a minor support level of 1900, with major support lower at 1800, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Any buying spree may not happen until Gold dropped to1800, but we'll see if there's any pick up in interest anywhere in between minor and major support any time soon.

Perhaps we'll see some large holder of Bitcoin suddenly dump his/her shares, resulting in a plunge to 20,000 (see my post of May 20 for details), in order to fund a large purchase of Gold

However, this is just wild speculation on my part, but worth watching both of these, nonetheless.

Source: ZeroHedge


* UPDATE June 15...

In light of the obversations/scenario described in the following article, maybe my speculation about a 'buyer on tap' for Gold (the IMF?), as well as Bitcoin's possible demise, was not so wild after all. But, such a 'plan' is not without hurdles, complicated by a multitude of variables and players, as you'll see...and may take many months or years to achieve. 

Although, to cut through all of these hurdles in the near term, such a plan may include a 'non-political middle-man buyer-and-holder of Gold'...one who is also holding a sizable chunk of Bitcoin. If world-wide stagflation or a recession is on the horizon and if a borrowing drought from banks becomes rampant world-wide, perhaps a cartel of major banks will become this 'middle player.' 

In fact, such an interim move by a 'banking cartel' may stem the bleed from the fallout of an ugly scenario that I posited in my post of April 10.

Hint...who's talking up Bitcoin, while dissing Gold these days...in a lead up to this possibility?

In any event, I'll leave my wild speculation as a wild speculation...for now...until I see such a 'plan' begin to materialize, which may, first, show up in intermittent volatile price action on their respective charts.

Source: ZeroHedge

Monday, May 31, 2021

Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary: A Decade of Posts 🎂

April 18, 2011 marked the birth of my Blog

Thank you to all who've visited my site and for your kind E-mails since then...they've been great!

As well, many thanks to the editors of the following sites who've generously published my articles over the years...(and to the creators of many other sites who provide a link to mine)...

I'll see if I can keep it going for another decade...cheers and good trading! 🍹😊

 © Strawberry Blonde's Market Summary

"Monday's Musings"...Sign Language 😏


Thursday, May 27, 2021

Biden's Bloated Spending Spree

U.S. taxpayers will have to cough up more of their earnings over the coming years under President Biden's unending bloated spending spree (including his proposals outlined in his Fiscal Year 2022 Budget, which was unveiled on Friday, May 28...U.S. equity markets remained gridlocked on the news).

As if their existing $225,310 debt per taxpayer, together with increasing inflation burdens, wasn't enough! 😕

When will taxpayers say enough is enough and demand more fiscal responsibility, accountability and transparency from their lawmakers...especially their President, if he can unstuff the ice cream from his mouth long enough to answer serious questions?




Monday, May 24, 2021

"Monday's Musings"...Politics Can Be "Icky" 😏

Oops...U.S. VP Harris caught 'red-handed' during this "icky" faux pas moment with South Korean President Moon...


Sunday, May 23, 2021

Will Biden's Systemic Race and Gender Discrimination Agenda Harm U.S. Markets?

It seems that President Biden's agenda and policies (executive orders, executive actions, and partisan laws passed by congressional Democrats) are rife with systemic race and gender discrimination...towards white males...and the courts are ruling against that, as described below pertaining to COVID-19 relief. 

No doubt, there are, and/or will be, many other court cases in the works pertaining to other situations where discrimination policies have been enacted.

It's an odd position for Joe Biden to take, considering he is a white male...as are many in his administration. How long will his white male (and female) voters' loyalty last? And, why is he dividing America...in direct contravention of his "unity" speech that he gave when he was sworn in as President? 😕

Finally, how long will U.S. markets remain strong and solid if the President weakens the country, particilarly its economy and national security, as well as the well-being and morale of his citizens, with his divisive and punitive actions? 

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a precarious spot, as I outlined in my post of May 21, so Biden should immediately change course and abide by his sworn oath to protect and unify, not destroy, the country and strengthen it in the process.

Source: The Hill


Friday, May 21, 2021

SPX: Rock Solid?

Looks like a bearish diamond formation is revealing an apex around the 4150 level on the SPX, as shown on the following daily chart.

A break and sustained hold below could send the SPX tumbling to 4000, or lower to its next support level at 3700.

Any convincing sustained move higher, will be dependent upon the SPX:VIX ratio meeting the following conditions (daily ratio chart below):

  • the ratio price retakes and holds above the 50 MA
  • the RSI retakes and holds above the 50.00 level
  • the MACD and PMO form and hold new bullish crossovers
However, achieving those conditions may not be so easy, inasmuch as the recent uptrends have been broken on the RSI, MACD and PMO indicators.

So, the SPX could be in for more chaotic whip-saw swings until it breaks and holds above or below the entire large diamond pattern and forms a new trend in either direction.


Thursday, May 20, 2021

BITCOIN Trapped In The Jaws Of The Alligator

* See UPDATE below...

Further to my post of April 10 (and subsequent updates therein), BITCOIN dropped below the lower moving average of the William's Alligator on Thursday to a low of 35,198 (after plunging around 45% from its April 14 high of 64,374), as shown on the following weekly chart. All three moving averages (offset into the future) are curling down... signalling further weakness ahead on this timeframe.

A drop and hold below 35,000 could send price plummeting to 30,000, or even lower to 20,000.

Volatility has spiked and is still rising to new highs in this "klepto-currency," as represented by the ATR indicator (shown in histogram format with a value of one period).

As I write this post in Thursday's overnight trading session, price has bounced back up into the Alligator's jaw (AKA its chaos zone...in between the upper and lower MAs). I expect to see large whip-saw swings in both directions until traders decide whether to "love or leave" BITCOIN once and for all. However, their allegiance in either scenario may be "transitory," to borrow the Fed's current characterization of "inflation."

Watch for the upper moving average to move below the middle one as a clue that the first downside target (30,000) may, in fact, be hit.

Otherwise, BITCOIN will need to break and hold above the entire Alligator formation, if it's going to move to new highs with any conviction.


May 20

* UPDATE May 24...

BITCOIN hit a low of 31,397 in Sunday night trading...nearling reaching its 30,000 first target.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Did China Unleash COVID-19 As A Bioweapon Of War Against The U.S.?

* See UPDATES below...

Judge for yourself...

Source: ZeroHedge

Why would China brag about deliberately causing such a world-wide catastrophe when their own vulnerable Shanghai Index is perched at a precarious level, above which it hasn't been able to hold for any length of time since 2007?

By the way, did any of the global leaders realize that China had launched a "biological war," as declared?

More importantly, are any more such "wars" imminent? If so, how will global leaders deter such an assault from the Communists?

Perhaps if President Biden's military/national security personnel learn to clap on demand, they'll figure out a way to win, or even prevent, the next "bio-war." 😏

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE May 22...

Interesting COVID-19 virus origin update from Fox News host, Tucker Carlson...

Source: Fox News

* UPDATE May 28...

Whoops...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE May 29...

More whoops...

Source: ZeroHedge

*** Even more stunning...and disturbing reports are noted below...

2% Target For US10YT

I last wrote about the US10YT in my post of April 8.

Since then, it retested the 1.50 level, reversed, and is now attempting to extend its rally in an effort to reach 2.00, or higher, as shown on the following weekly chart.

As long as it holds above the upper moving average of the William's Alligator (1.58), I'd say there's a good chance it will reach that level. The Balance of Power has shifted back to Buyers. I'd like to see the Awesome Oscillator turn green to confirm that support for a higher yield is sustainable.

Keep an eye on inflation for clues, as I've described in detail in my post of May 13 (and subsequent updates noted therein)...inasmuch as longer-term inflation will, no doubt, have an impact on 10-year treasury yields...particularly, as the Fed is beginning to admit that it may not, in fact, be "transitory," as they've been trying to peddle.

May 19


-- ZeroHedge