Inflation...Transitory Or Permanent? HINT: Bubblegum

* See UPDATES below...

I don't wish to be rude or flippant, but it seems that the big takeaway from the question/study of economic inflation theory -- Is it 'transitory' or permanent? -- is that:

1. Economic theory is irrelevant.
2. There are factors affecting inflation.
3. But these factors are unpredictable.
4. So, inflation projection could go up or down on a variety of modelling scenarios.

My 2 cents' worth...The days of buying "Dubble Bubble" bubblegum with FREE Comics & Fortunes for 1 cent during the 1920's are long gone...Check out Walmart's price now...

So, I'd say that inflation will keep rising over the coming months and years. The U.S. National Debt is not going to shrink or disappear; rather, it's accelerating, thanks to out-of-control spending by Washington and the White House. Check out the cost of bubblegum this time next year, and see.

Bubblegum...a good inflation gauge, no? 😏

By the way, at what level does inflation become a national security threat?

P.S.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE June 16...

The Fed seems to be waking up to the notion that inflation may not, in fact, be 'transitory' as they've been vigorously proclaiming for the past several months...although, "two rate hikes by the end of 2023" may be too little, too late.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE June 25...

To bolster the idea that inflation may not be 'transitory,' there's this...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 13...

Yes, inflation is still here...and supersized...as per CPI data released today...

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 14...

More inflation-confirming numbers (PPI & Core PPI) released today...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 21...

N.B. Read more on inflation here and more on national security here.

SB's "Weekend Bits & Bites" 😏

Stay cool...😎

Isn't it about time that Joe switched from 'club-flavoured' ice cream...

Source: ZeroHedge

...to this?

If not in President Macron's 'G7 old-cronies club,' at least former President Trump was loyal to and achieved many victories for the American people during his four years in office. (Perhaps Macron was still smarting from the slap on the face he received the other day by a fellow countryman.😒)

The Trump administration accomplishments can be found, in their entirety, at this archived link...an impressive feat during only a four-year presidency.

* UPDATE June 16...

The Geneva, Switzerland U.S./Russia 'sunglasses' summit took place today between President Biden and President Putin...where it was merely a 'talk about more talks.'

So, what gifts did Putin get from Biden?...sunglasses, a pipeline to Europe, sanctions lifted, a return of Russian diplomats to the U.S., a list of 16 U.S. critical infrastructure entities that are 'off-limits' to cyberattack by Russia (does that mean that everything else not on the list is OK to be attacked?...bizarre!), and the opportunity to answer dozens of questions from reporters and spew his propoganda on international TV for 55 minutes at the conclusion of the summit without challenge by Biden, because he wasn't at that solo press conference! Why not, Joe?

What gifts did Biden get from Putin?...nothing...and the 'privilege' of being the 'second act' to Putin in his 20-minute scripted solo press conference that followed, taking pre-screened questions from only 5 reporters...and the humiliation of being the 'bridesmaid,' not the 'bride.'

 

Media Bias? 😒

You be the judge...

Versus...

More "Icky" Faux Pas Political Moments By VP Harris

TGIF...

This report from Fox News...

"Users on Twitter roasted Vice President Harris for passing out cookies made in her likeness to reporters on a plane while travelling to meet with the President of Guatemala."

A bit narcissistic, no? Imagine if former President Trump had done that. 😏

Another rather "icky" loss-of-cool moment was committed by Kamala Harris on the international scene -- President Biden's appointed 'Border Czar' -- who, embarrassingly (for Biden), has, conveniently, blamed the countries of immigrant origin for their failed policies, rather than own up and admit that her own President caused it on Day One of his administration (by the way, why is she -- and Biden -- refusing to visit the border?).

At what point does Joe Biden's 'open border' policy and resultant illegal immigration surge become a national security threat and a dereliction of duty?

As soon as he took office in January he reversed all the policies of the previous administration...that were working to keep illegal immigration down. He also recklessly abandoned the completion and funding of the southern border wall, leaving all the wall materials spread out on the ground along the border to rot...thus killing hundreds of construction jobs and jeopardazing the lives of U.S. Border Guards and American citizens (especially along the border) in the process.

Since February, over 170,000 illegal immigrants have crossed the U.S. southern border per month, who've been apprehended (and likely that many more who have not) from dozens of foreign countries. Among them have been known terrorists, murderers, human traffickers (who are turning their victims into slaves, according to FBI Director Wray), rapists, gang members, drug smugglers/cartels, etc. 

So, modern-day slavery is back in the U.S.A., thanks to Biden's immigration and border policies.

Source: ZeroHedge

Too bad Biden doesn't put as much priority on defending his own borders, as he does that of Ukraine's...

Source: ZeroHedge

This is definitely another "icky" and "sticky" issue for Kamala...and Joe...and a serious (and preventable) threat for all Americans and the U.S. economy.

* UPDATE July 11...

It gets worse.

It seems like VP Harris thinks most Americans are stupid, including Blacks...how does she think they've been able to vote all these years?

When will she, President Biden and other Democrats stop insulting voters?

Better yet, when will Americans stop supporting and enabling these politicians...and reject their constant accusations of 'racist,' etc.? Because, it sounds like they don't like Americans and America very much from their constant denigrating rhetoric.

So much for Biden's hollow promise of 'unity.'

Link to tweet & video

* UPDATE September 8...

Damning news just in about VP Kamala Harris...really makes you question her judgement and motives...

Source: The Post Millennial

* UPDATE October 12...

Cringe-worthy White House 'fake press productions' involving VP Kamala Harris and President Biden are NOT impressing anyone. Instead, they're being widely ridiculed.

The 2022 and 2024 elections can't come soon enough! 😕

Source: ZeroHedge

U.S. SPX Index vs. Brent Crude Oil/Russian RTSI Index/German DAX Index

What do all of these have in common?

First of all, take a look at the monthly comparison chart below of Brent Crude Oil, Russia's RTSI Index, and Germany's DAX Index.

From around April 2015, these three have traded virtually lockstep, with varying degrees of strength on their upward push from around April 2020.

While the DAX has rallied to new all-time highs, the RTSI is trading around major (long-term) resistance, and Brent is approaching major (long-term) resistance around 80.00.

The Balance of Power (BOP) (pertaining to Brent) is nearing its all-time historical high, as the buyers are currently in control.

We may see a final spike upwards in Brent towards 80.00, dragging the RTSI and DAX Indices along with it, before they all, either take a pause and consolidate, or pull back.

However, look for a possible deviation during such a spike by either or both the RTSI and DAX, potentially signalling that buying is weakening in Brent. 

Keep an eye on the Brent BOP to confirm either scenario.

Price on the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is nearing its +10 standard deviation on its long-term uptrending regression channel, at approximately 4300. Minor support sits around 4200.

The SPX:VIX Ratio is shown in histogram format in the bottom portion of the chart. Price on this ratio is just below its all-time historical high...representing major resistance. 

As you can see, it's had great difficulty breaking and remaining above the 250 level. It's first level of support is 200...followed by 150 and 100, respectively. 

A drop and hold below 200 could see the SPX drop to around 4200. A drop and hold of the ratio 5 MA below 200 could send the SPX sharply below 4200...in short order. 

Keep an eye on this ratio and 5 MA for clues as to direction and strength of the SPX.

CONCLUSIONS:

So, keep an eye on possible spikes in Brent towards the 80.00 level and the SPX towards 4300 before we see any kind of pause and consolidation of all of the above markets, or a sharp, swift pullback.

No doubt, these markets will react following the outcome of President Biden's meeting on June 16 with President Putin in Geneva, Switzerland, so we could very see a run-up until then.

Therefore, I'd say that, in the near term, the common denominator is Geneva's meeting, the outcome of which may be the catalyst for a sharp, swift change in direction for the SPX, RTSI, DAX and Brent.

We'll see what happens.

Money Flow In Markets Year-To-Date

* See UPDATE below...

The following graphs show which segments of the markets have been the most favoured year-to-date.

With Gold flat for the year, it makes me wonder about the timing of President Macron's remarks today, and whether he has a particular buyer waiting in the wings ready to snap Gold up at 'bargain' prices. 🤔

It's currently sitting just above a minor support level of 1900, with major support lower at 1800, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Any buying spree may not happen until Gold dropped to1800, but we'll see if there's any pick up in interest anywhere in between minor and major support any time soon.

Perhaps we'll see some large holder of Bitcoin suddenly dump his/her shares, resulting in a plunge to 20,000 (see my post of May 20 for details), in order to fund a large purchase of Gold. 

However, this is just wild speculation on my part, but worth watching both of these, nonetheless.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE June 15...

In light of the obversations/scenario described in the following article, maybe my speculation about a 'buyer on tap' for Gold (the IMF?), as well as Bitcoin's possible demise, was not so wild after all. But, such a 'plan' is not without hurdles, complicated by a multitude of variables and players, as you'll see...and may take many months or years to achieve. 

Although, to cut through all of these hurdles in the near term, such a plan may include a 'non-political middle-man buyer-and-holder of Gold'...one who is also holding a sizable chunk of Bitcoin. If world-wide stagflation or a recession is on the horizon and if a borrowing drought from banks becomes rampant world-wide, perhaps a cartel of major banks will become this 'middle player.' 

In fact, such an interim move by a 'banking cartel' may stem the bleed from the fallout of an ugly scenario that I posited in my post of April 10.

Hint...who's talking up Bitcoin, while dissing Gold these days...in a lead up to this possibility?

In any event, I'll leave my wild speculation as a wild speculation...for now...until I see such a 'plan' begin to materialize, which may, first, show up in intermittent volatile price action on their respective charts.

Source: ZeroHedge