Cat Latte
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Black Gold...
The question for Oil is whether it will pay attention to confluence resistance or not...if so, perhaps it will retrace to form a right shoulder and, subsequently an IH&S, as shown on the Daily chart below.
How the day ended for the Financials sector...
P.S. to my earlier post today...
Bulls or bears in control? A picture is worth a thousand words:
Make it 2 pictures:
OK, I'll settle for 3 pictures:
Bulls or bears in control? A picture is worth a thousand words:
Make it 2 pictures:
OK, I'll settle for 3 pictures:
MS is the weak bank in the Financials sector so far today...
MS is leading this morning's decline in the Financials sector so far this morning, as shown on the 1-day 1-minute percentage comparison chart below.
An important price level to watch is 15.00, as shown on the 4-hour chart below, as it flirts with near-term support around 15.50...roughly the neckline of a downward-sloping H&S neckline.
An important price level to watch is 15.00, as shown on the 4-hour chart below, as it flirts with near-term support around 15.50...roughly the neckline of a downward-sloping H&S neckline.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Zeroing in on Copper
At the moment, the 50 sma (red) on the Daily timeframe is holding price down on Copper, as shown on the chart below.
A closer look at the one-hour chart below, shows a confluence of Fibonacci and trendline resistance at 3.54...at the time of writing this post in after-hours trading, price reached up towards this level and fell back to near-term support...a further drop could send price back down to 3.45...otherwise, a move and hold above 3.54 could see price reaching 3.60 or 3.62. Volumes were elevated today, so a major move may be imminent.
A closer look at the one-hour chart below, shows a confluence of Fibonacci and trendline resistance at 3.54...at the time of writing this post in after-hours trading, price reached up towards this level and fell back to near-term support...a further drop could send price back down to 3.45...otherwise, a move and hold above 3.54 could see price reaching 3.60 or 3.62. Volumes were elevated today, so a major move may be imminent.
Euro and 1.35
The EUR/USD forex pair is back down to the 1.35 level...if it breaks and holds below, price could ultimately drop to 1.33, then 1.30, as shown on the two Daily charts below...otherwise, we may see price advance to 1.40ish.
As a potential confirmation of direction, I'll keep an eye on the European financials sector, EUFN...price is currently sitting on support just below Fibonacci confluence resistance, as shown on the Daily and 4-hour charts below.
Will the TF see 900.00?
What a trendless mess...price on the TF is precisely here (see 4-hour chart below)...where to next? I don't know, except I'd say that 737.00 and 746.50 are important levels in the short-term...if price can make it above 746.50 and remain above, we could see price test 781.00ish or higher. If price falls and remains below 737.00, we could see a return to 691.00ish, or so.
It appears to be forming a large upward-sloping IH&S pattern...if it is, and if it plays out, the potential target is around 900.00ish...160.00 points above its current level.
It appears to be forming a large upward-sloping IH&S pattern...if it is, and if it plays out, the potential target is around 900.00ish...160.00 points above its current level.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Financials cradled at support so far today...
The Financials sector, XLF, and banking stocks (GS, JPM, C, BAC & MS) are currently being propped up so far today at near-term support as shown on the Daily chartgrid below.
They are currently below today's opening price, but have been holding their own, so far, as shown on the 1-day 1-minute comparison chart below.
The YM, ES, NQ & TF are high-basing near Friday's highs as shown on the Daily chartgrid below.
European Industrial Production was down as reported in the monthly figures today...as can be seen on the chart below, it fell below its lowest level in 2010 down to 2009 levels.
The EUR/USD is much weaker than the Major Indices today, as shown on the Daily chart below...something I'll watch for is whether the U.S. equities markets are de-coupling from the Euro or not over the next days.
The Commodities ETF, DBC, is trading near Friday's lows, similarly to the Financials, as shown on the Daily chart below...will look for further clues of either firming at these support levels, or a weakening over the next days.
They are currently below today's opening price, but have been holding their own, so far, as shown on the 1-day 1-minute comparison chart below.
The YM, ES, NQ & TF are high-basing near Friday's highs as shown on the Daily chartgrid below.
European Industrial Production was down as reported in the monthly figures today...as can be seen on the chart below, it fell below its lowest level in 2010 down to 2009 levels.
The EUR/USD is much weaker than the Major Indices today, as shown on the Daily chart below...something I'll watch for is whether the U.S. equities markets are de-coupling from the Euro or not over the next days.
The Commodities ETF, DBC, is trading near Friday's lows, similarly to the Financials, as shown on the Daily chart below...will look for further clues of either firming at these support levels, or a weakening over the next days.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
India & Hong Kong...signalling weakness to come?
The Indian Bombay Stock Exchange Index traded contrarily to other countries on Friday with a gap down, as shown on the Daily chart below...it's sitting just below recent horizontal and trendline support, with indicators downward-sloping...another one to watch...will see what next week brings.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also traded contrarily to the world markets with a gap down on Thursday and a failure on Friday to fill the gap, as shown on the Daily chart below...it's sitting just above horizontal support but below recent rising trendline support, with indicators downward-sloping...another one to watch.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also traded contrarily to the world markets with a gap down on Thursday and a failure on Friday to fill the gap, as shown on the Daily chart below...it's sitting just above horizontal support but below recent rising trendline support, with indicators downward-sloping...another one to watch.
A preview of the future...
What the living room of the future could look like (courtesy of www.infographiclist.com):
Click this link to see a larger picture:
http://infographiclist.com/2011/11/12/the-living-room-of-the-future-infographic/
Click this link to see a larger picture:
http://infographiclist.com/2011/11/12/the-living-room-of-the-future-infographic/
Friday, November 11, 2011
A Whole Lotta Charts...
Tonight's post shows a number of markets on the verge of a major push higher...many of them face considerable overhead resistance...time will tell if they will be successful or not...their Daily charts are as follows:
The US$ is sitting in a confluence zone of crossed regression channel lines and 50 sma (red)...near-term support lies at 76.70, followed by 76.00...will see how this trades on an inverse relationship to the above instruments.
In addition to the US$, the corresponding USD/CAD forex pair is showing a similar drop in price to prior support...it may be headed to the middle of an uptrending channel at around 1.0070.
We'll see what stories emanate from Europe next week and which way the wind blows these markets.
Again, I'll keep a close eye on the Financials...the 1-day 1-minute percentage comparison chart of the banks to XLF shows that JPM finished down on the day from the open, whereas the others finished up...one to watch, perhaps?
The US$ is sitting in a confluence zone of crossed regression channel lines and 50 sma (red)...near-term support lies at 76.70, followed by 76.00...will see how this trades on an inverse relationship to the above instruments.
In addition to the US$, the corresponding USD/CAD forex pair is showing a similar drop in price to prior support...it may be headed to the middle of an uptrending channel at around 1.0070.
We'll see what stories emanate from Europe next week and which way the wind blows these markets.
Again, I'll keep a close eye on the Financials...the 1-day 1-minute percentage comparison chart of the banks to XLF shows that JPM finished down on the day from the open, whereas the others finished up...one to watch, perhaps?
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Weak French & Italian Industrial Production Levels
As can be seen on the two graphs below, the monthly French and Italian Industrial Production Levels that were reported today are sharply weaker than the prior month's levels...something to watch over the coming months to see if this level worsens.
As described by www.ForexFactory.com, "It's a leading indicator of economic health -- production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings."
As described by www.ForexFactory.com, "It's a leading indicator of economic health -- production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings."
Does America want a stable oil supply or not?
With the increasing need of America for oil imports, today's decision by President Obama to delay the approval of Trans Canada's Keystone XL Oil Pipeline Project until the first quarter of 2013 (after the presidential election in 2012), along with a partnership with a stable and reliable oil supplier (with the potential to create 20,000 jobs and billions of dollars of investment to the U.S. economy) makes no sense...especially with the growing volatility in the Middle East. This approval had originally been promised by the end of this year.
Trans Canada has said that if this pipeline has to be significantly re-routed, it could kill the project. In terms of cost-effectiveness and environmental protection issues, the proposed route was the best that was presented in the study.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trans Canada looks for other markets to which it can sell its surplus oil, since stopping production or stockpiling is not an alternative. A spokesman from the Prime Minister of Canada's office said that "...our government will continue to promote Canada and the oil sands as a stable, secure, and responsible source of energy for the world."
Below are a series of charts of Oil covering four different timeframes (one-month Options Expiry period, Monthly, Weekly, and Daily). As can be seen, there is a rising channel resistance level around 100.00...however, price did break above that level early this year to reach a high of 114.83, which would mark the next level of resistance if 100.00 is broken...the next resistance level is the all-time high of 147.27 reached in July 2008.
With today's decision, it's my opinion that the price that America pays for crude oil will remain under the influence of the turmoil in the Middle East.
The Daily chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF below show that price action today closed above near-term support, which is gaining importance, and is a level to watch.
I'll continue to keep a close eye on Financials since that sector remains weak, as the XLF and banks remained in negative territory from today's open as shown on the one-minute one-day percentage comparison chart below...with BAC the weakest.
Trans Canada has said that if this pipeline has to be significantly re-routed, it could kill the project. In terms of cost-effectiveness and environmental protection issues, the proposed route was the best that was presented in the study.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trans Canada looks for other markets to which it can sell its surplus oil, since stopping production or stockpiling is not an alternative. A spokesman from the Prime Minister of Canada's office said that "...our government will continue to promote Canada and the oil sands as a stable, secure, and responsible source of energy for the world."
Below are a series of charts of Oil covering four different timeframes (one-month Options Expiry period, Monthly, Weekly, and Daily). As can be seen, there is a rising channel resistance level around 100.00...however, price did break above that level early this year to reach a high of 114.83, which would mark the next level of resistance if 100.00 is broken...the next resistance level is the all-time high of 147.27 reached in July 2008.
With today's decision, it's my opinion that the price that America pays for crude oil will remain under the influence of the turmoil in the Middle East.
The Daily chartgrid of the YM, ES, NQ & TF below show that price action today closed above near-term support, which is gaining importance, and is a level to watch.
I'll continue to keep a close eye on Financials since that sector remains weak, as the XLF and banks remained in negative territory from today's open as shown on the one-minute one-day percentage comparison chart below...with BAC the weakest.
Delightful Xmas Gift...
With Xmas approaching, this Advent Calendar for your computer holds the promise of delight for each of the 24 days leading up to Xmas day (I ordered one last year, and it was lovely)...makes a nice gift for others on your list, too...just click on the link below for a demo of this year's calendar and for further information:
http://www.jacquielawson.com/advent/london?source=jl514
http://www.jacquielawson.com/advent/london?source=jl514
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