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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
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*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Political Editorial: Trump Impeachment and US 2020 Election

The following is presented without prejudice.

When I step back from and disregard the daily hyperbolic political reports/accusations and quest by US Democrats and the majority of media pundits to investigate and impeach President Trump (which has been going on since before he was sworn in on January 20, 2017), I think that any negative fallout against him from that attempt will be mitigated and cannibalized by at least five major factors:
  1. at the moment, approximately 60% of Americans are against impeachment,
  2. there may be grave repercussions for Democrats when the long-awaited and soon-to-be-released DOJ IG's report on FISA abuse under the Obama administration leading up to and post-2016 presidential election is made public,
  3. there may be even more damaging repercussions for Democrats once the DOJ's review and report on the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation under the Obama administration is eventually made public,
  4. the reputation of Democrats' current front-runner 2020 presidential candidate, former Obama Vice President Joe Biden, will, no doubt, be negatively impacted as they proceed with an impeachment process over the Ukraine issue, and
  5. the lurch to the extreme far-left by Democrats and the 2020 Democrat candidates as they embrace and attempt to enforce their Green New Deal doctrine (GND) and socialist agendas will blow up the US National Debt and personal debt of every American to an unsustainable and unattainable level. In short, the US would be bankrupt! This Fox News TV headline caught my attention on Friday...it looks like their GND and socialist policies may not be so attractive for donors.

As of 7:00 pm ET today (September 29), the US National Debt stands at $22,634,538,392,628...by the time you read this, it will be higher. Debt per citizen stands at $68,641 and debt per taxpayer is $183,625.

Who can afford to suddenly pay off that amount, let alone anything outrageously higher, as Democrats are promising to implement with their election agendas?


At the moment, and as I understand things, the only thing that Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced is that a so-called "formal impeachment inquiry" is underway by a variety of Democrat House Chairmen/women and their committees. Exactly who is investigating what and why is unclear. Articles of Impeachment have not yet been drafted and Ms. Pelosi has not called for a formal vote of the entire House to begin impeachment hearings based on those articles.

So, unless and until that is done, these investigations are entirely one-sided, inasmuch as Republican committee members are hamstrung and unable to subpoena their own witnesses in order to conduct thorough, transparent, bona fide, bi-partisan, and fair impeachment hearings. 

The longer she drags out her "inquiry" process without calling for a full House vote will highlight Democrat mal-intent and subvert due process of Presidential rights in their rush to overturn the results of the 2016 election...and convey the message to the 63 million supporters who voted for Trump (Hillary's "basket of deplorables") that their vote was not legitimate and didn't matter.

Instead, it looks like a politically-motivated smear campaign is being waged against the President to:
  • try and damage his chances of being re-elected in 2020, rather than formally impeach him under Constitutional law,
  • pivot/divert attention away from Factors #2, #3 and 4, and
  • try and muddy the details and implications of implementing their socialist election policies/agenda

Furthermore, the promises made by Democrats (who ran and won in previously-held Republican districts in the 2018 midterm election) to work across the aisle with Republicans and the President on a variety of issues has now been exposed as empty and false political rhetoric.

At the end of the day, people (voters) care about jobs, housing, health, family, national and personal security, the rule of law, liberty, freedom and their rights...not day-to-day over-blown and under-delivered political crises.

At the moment, I don't see any better (and affordable) alternatives being seriously presented to the American people on any of those issues by Democrats than are currently being provided by the Trump administration and Republicans.

In the meantime, the chances that any beneficial legislation (for all Americans) can be passed on a bi-partisan basis in the House and Senate until after November 3, 2020 are nil.

BOTTOM LINE: 
How does this affect the US equity markets?

In the long run and based upon the above-noted five mitigating factors, I don't see that any further political impeachment rhetoric will have much of an overall impact on equity markets (barring the revelation of any, as yet unknown, major negative catalyst).

Instead, I've identified several gauges to monitor going forward to the end of 2019 in my last article. If anything, there may be a 60/40 chance that the SPX will, ultimately, move higher from last Friday's close...albeit on choppy, whipsaw trading.


N.B. For a further in-depth look at the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation, this video interview -- conducted on September 22 by Fox News TV host Mark Levin of author and former law enforcement officer and Secret Service agent Dan Bongino -- is illuminating and worth watching.

Click here to watch the video

This WSJ article by Michael B. Mukasey, former U.S. Attorney General (2007-09) and district judge (1988-2006), describes the impeachment process and contains some, potentially, exculpatory news (to the benefit of Trump) that Democrats may not welcome in their quest to impeach President Trump.

Source: WSJ.com

In any event, it looks like any President of the Unites States has a duty to investigate any information related to corruption/criminal activities, as outlined in this cover letter from former President Bill Clinton regarding a 1999 Treaty between the US and Ukraine (signed at Kiev in 1998 and ratified by the US Senate in 2000)...and, so it appears that President Trump was carrying out his duty during the course of his phone call with the Ukrainian President.


In a May 30, 2018 update on my post of May 9, 2018, I wrote the following summary of what the US political landscape looked like then...in the days leading up to the 2018 mid-term election...


I've framed the above paragraph in red to illustrate that, even then, Democrats were transparent in their real agenda to overturn the results of the 2016 presidential election by impeaching the President using whatever means they deem to be appropriate.

It looks like they're now proceeding full steam ahead, while bypassing normal rules governing the impeachment process, according to this disturbing Wall Street Journal article...

Source: WSJ.com

And, so, I'll re-post what I said in a subsequent July 26, 2019 update on my article...


Furthermore, with Joe Biden now demanding in a letter to various media outlets that they stop booking interviews of President Trump's attorney Rudy Giuliani, as well as another 2020 Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris calling for Trump's Twitter account to be suspended from their social media platform, it's clear where the Democrat policies are headed...namely, towards the silencing of free speech and dictating what information is appropriate by whom and for whom.

I wonder how foreign investors would view such a move and whether they'd be so eager to continue to invest in American companies and US Treasuries. What effect would that have on the economy?

Democrats' real reason for their urgency and haste
 to impeach the President for any reason 
and by any means necessary 
before the 2020 election?

Perhaps Democrats' real reason for their urgency and haste to impeach the President for any reason and by any means necessary before the 2020 election relates to the potential impact on the Supreme Court Justices if he were to be re-elected for another four years...if what's mentioned in this article ever transpired, its effects would be in play for many years/decades after Trump's presidency is over.

Click here to read my more detailed thoughts on this topic.

Source: Reuters.com

More drama emerged on October 2...this time about Democrat House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff and the mishandling and misreporting of the so-called "whistleblower's" complaint...


So, as Democrats carry on with this quasi-impeachment circus while searching for a crime (and block Republicans from participating in the investigatory process), Congress remains in gridlock and no work gets done on behalf of their voters. What fallout will occur to their livelihood and the economy? If today's stock market plunge is any indication, then the US is in for a very rough ride until November 2020!

Give yourself a round of applause, Nancy. Because I doubt if American voters will.