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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Cabin

Cabin

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IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Sunday, July 26, 2015

30-Year U.S. Bonds at Crossroads

The following 1-Year Daily chart of 30-Year U.S. Bonds ($USB) shows that a bearish moving average Death Cross has recently formed -- warning that lower prices may be in store. However, the rising RSI indicates building strength from May through July.


Near-term major resistance lies at 155.00, while longer-term major support sits at 150.00, as shown on the following 5-Year Daily chart. We may see price break through both sides of this 150.00-155.00 consolidation zone before market participants make a final decision "for" or "against" this bond...watch to see which side of 50.00 that the RSI, either, aligns with, or diverges from, that final choice to confirm sustainability of that direction.


The key to direction may lie in how well the U.S. $ performs in the near-term. The following 5-Year Daily chart of $USD compares price action to $USB. Price has, basically, moved in tandem on both of these instruments since mid-2013. The RSI is still in an uptrend from May and above the 50.00 level on $USD, and major price resistance lies at 98.00.


However, the following 5-Year Daily ratio chart of $USD:$USB shows that, recent attempts by $USD to break and hold above the 98.00 price level have been futile, while buying has strengthened each time in $USB. I'd watch the 0.630 major support level on this chart to see if the U.S. $ can regain a bullish bias...a breakout and hold above 0.660, together with a move on the RSI back above the 50.00 level would reinforce that scenario.