The following 3-year Daily ratio charts compare the price action, strength/weakness, and current price level of the SPX with a number of major world indices, commodities, and 30-year bonds.
You can see, at a glance, that the SPX has been weaker than most of the other major world indices, of late (other than China, Japan, and, to some extent, Australia), and price sits at or near to major support. On the other hand, the SPX has been stronger recently than the NDX and the RUT, as well as Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil. The SPX vs the World Index is slightly weaker, and price sits at major support. The SPX has been stronger than 30-year bonds, but is sitting in between major support and resistance in a neutral zone.
The big question is, "Will we see buyers step back into the SPX in the near term?" If so, we'd see price enter into the "froth area" that I wrote about in an earlier post on April 5th. Additionally, we would see price rise above historically high levels on the SPX:VIX ratio chart that I wrote about in my last post on May 8th.
If buyers are willing to take on more risk while the Fed holds interest rates low, we may see them step back into the SPX, NDX, RUT, China, Japan, and Australia, and, possibly, step out of some European and BRIC country holdings, commodities, and 30-year bonds. If not, we may see prices rise in commodities and 30-year bonds, as I wrote about in my post of May 2nd. Otherwise, we may continue to see an increasingly volatile game of leapfrog rotation and large swings play out amongst these markets over the next weeks/months...buckle up...it could be a wild ride!
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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
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* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.
DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...
UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC VENTS...
* Fri. Apr. 19 ~ U.S. Markets Closed for Good Friday holiday
* Wed. Apr. 24 @ 3:30 am ET ~ German Flash Manufacturing PMI (watch for a hold below 50)...N.B. Jan. 24 PMI came in at 49.9, Feb. 21 PMI came in at 47.6 & Mar. 22 came in at 44.7 (contraction mode deepens!)
* Wed. May 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Fri. May 3 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Fri. May 10 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. May 15 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
* Wed. May 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Wed. May 29 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events
NOTABLE POSTS WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES...