SPX/GOLD/OIL: Too Hot or Not?

I'll simply summarize and provide the major resistance and support levels for the SPX, GOLD and OIL shown on the following monthly charts and you can judge for yourselves whether strength or weakness is in the cards in the near term.

SPX:

As I mentioned in my post of December 29, 2019, the SPX hit my Q4 target of 3233 by year end. It happens to coincide with a +4 standard deviation of a long-term uptrending regression channel and has now formed near-term support. Its next support sits around 3070 (the +3 channel deviation).

The next major resistance level is around 3350, which intersects with this regression channel's +5 standard deviation.

The RSI, MACD and Stochs technical indicators are strongly in bull territory, but are approaching overbought status. However, this doesn't mean an automatic pullback is imminent...rather, we may see some profit-taking occur in the near term, resulting in a minor consolidation...caution is warranted on the "BUY" side.

GOLD:

Gold is approaching a major resistance level at 1600. It has popped above the upper edge of a rising channel around 1545, which is now major support. Its next support sits around 1450 (confluence of price support and the +1 channel deviation).

The RSI, MACD and Stochs technical indicators are strongly in bull territory, but are approaching overbought status. However, this doesn't mean an automatic pullback is imminent...rather, we may see some profit-taking occur, resulting in a minor consolidation...caution is warranted on the "BUY" side as price approaches 1600. If it blows through that price, we may see it shoot for 1,800, or higher, in the near-to-medium term.

OIL:

Price is approaching first resistance around 65.00 (+1 deviation of a rising channel), followed by 70.00ish (in between the 200-month moving average and upper band of the channel).

Major support sits at 60.00 (confluence of price support and the channel median).

The RSI, MACD and Stochs technical indicators have recently moved into bull territory on this timeframe. I'd say that, of these three instruments, OIL has the most potential to continue to be a "BUY." However, caution is warranted on the "buy" side as price approaches 65.00. If it blows through that price, we may see it shoot for 70.00, or higher, in the near term.

Happy New Year 2020!

Thank you to all who visited my site this year! 😊

Trump's Promises Made & Kept

So far, there have been 319 achievements and promises kept in 3 years by President Trump...this should look good on his resume...

ACFrOgAUTMl8Xt31z9R_Bha0n5a... by Paul Bedard on Scribd

He may have been impeached by the House just before Christmas (or was he?), but he's still in the White House...

* UPDATE January 18, 2020...

President Trump signed a Phase I trade agreement with China today...while House Democrat Speaker *Nancy Pelosi was busy signing the House Democrat's Articles of Impeachment.

Which one is actually busy doing the people's work that will benefit all Americans for years to come?






* UPDATE January 28...

President Trump formally unveiled a peace plan today for Israel and the Palestinians alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The document can be read at this link.








* UPDATE January 29...

President Trump signed the USMCA trade agreement today, as passed in the House and Senate.

2020 State of the Union Address

N.B. President Trump will deliver the 2020 State of the Union address to the Congress on Tuesday, February 4. The theme is the 'great American comeback,' and will put forth a vision of 'relentless optimism,' as described in this article in The Hill.

President Trump's 2019 State of the Union address

* UPDATE February 04...

President Trump's 2020 State of the Union address...

WOW...Congratulations,*Nancy Pelosi, you've just increased President Trump's re-election chances by this petty, petulant temper tantrum...and demeaned your legacy in the process...

Click link to watch the video clip

House Speaker #PelosiTheRipper disrespected all of these 
people who were honoured by the President in his speech...
by ripping up their distinguished legacies...
shameful!
She should by censured by the House and resign in disgrace.

Click this link to view video

* UPDATE October 24...

And...3 Nobel Peace Prize nominations for President Trump for 2021

From This Week's "Smile File"...A Perfect Start

This one never gets old...my wish for all of you...that someone helps you get off to a perfect start...😊

China's Shanghai Index Heats Up

China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) heats up in anticipation of the signing of the new U.S./China Phase I Trade Deal, expected on January 15, 2020.

The monthly chart of the SSEC shows price has just broken above a downtrend line that began at the highs of June 2015.

Major resistance lies at 3086.91 (a 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level), while major price support sits at 3000.

The Balance of Power on this timeframe favours the buyers and is nearing an all-time high set back in April 2007, after which price spiked up from 3197 to 6124 by the end of October that year, for a gain of 2,927 points during that 7-month time period.

If price breaks and holds above 3087, its next major resistance (40% Fib) level is 3486.55...a level not seen since January 2018.

However, if, for some reason, the Phase I Trade Deal is not signed, and if the SSEC breaks and holds below 3000, then I'd look for a drop to new lows to, at least 2700, or lower.

2020 is almost here...Happy New Year's Eve!

SPX: What's In Store For The 2020s & 2030s?

THE LONG VIEW INTO THE FUTURE...

Each candle on the following chart of the SPX represents a period of one year.

From 1932 to 1972, it, essentially, rallied for 40 years, particularly for the latter 30 years. From 1974 to 2000, its bull run lasted for 26 years. For the past 10 years, it's also been in a strong bull market.

Very simply, history shows that, for the most part, the SPX has been a strong (BUY) candidate for longer-term investors over an average of 30 years running, and that is likely to be repeated for another 10-20 years, generally speaking.

As I write this post on December 28 (with only 2 trading days left in 2019), the following monthly chart of the SPX shows that it has gained 340% from its March 2009 lows.

The Balance of Power is currently under the control of buyers and has yet to match prior highs...hinting of further upside potential for 2020.

Furthermore, if the 2020s are as strong as the 2010s, look for a similar percentage gain through to 2030...and, possibly again to 2040...before we eventually see a meaningful pullback/consolidation for, perhaps, 10 years through to 2050.

As long as the Technology Sector (Nasdaq Composite Index) remains strong through 2020, as I wrote in my post of December 26, no doubt that will bode well for the SPX.

The following monthly chart shows a gain of 554% for the past 10 years. The gains in the tech sector have outpaced the U.S. markets, in general. That is likely to continue and, possibly, strengthen over the next 10 to 20 years as innovation accelerates...buoying the rest of the markets, in turn...one to watch!

N.B. By the way, the SPX managed to hit my Q4 target of 3233 by the end of this year, as I forecast in my post of September 29...(the monthly chart below is from that post).

P.S. So, as I asked in my post of December 24 [one-day $34.4 Billion U.S. retail sales and $17 Trillion global market gains (21.68%) this year], "What's not to like, Joe?"

Happy New Year!

* UPDATE Feb. 5, 2023...

From the date this article was posted, the SPX rallied another 1,600 points to a high of 4817.88 by January 2022, as shown on the following monthly chart.

It, subsequently, pulled back to a low of 3490 by October 2022 and has rallied somewhat to 4136.48.

The monthly timeframe is still in a technical downtrend and price action during 2022 has been very choppy and volatile, producing very large daily, weekly and monthly swings.

I analyzed a number of markets in my 2023 Market Forecast and came to the following conclusions...

So, where the SPX goes from here, is anybody's guess...for now...but, I have a feeling that the volatility, choppiness, and large-scale swings have not yet disappeared. 

And, with Joe Biden as the current President (since January 2021), I'm sure that those conditions will persist for, at least, the rest of 2023...and, possibly, until the end of his first term in January 2025.

And, as I concluded in my aforementioned forecast, the SPX may drop to 3200, or lower, either before the end of this year, or by the end of Biden's first term...BEFORE we see the SPX resume its historical BULL RUN into the end of the 2020s and 2030s.

* UPDATE January 24, 2025...

To read the latest update, see my new post entitled SPX: What's In Store From 2025 To 2029?

Nasdaq 9000 Tagged...9100 By Year End?...10,000 In 2020?

Technology has been one hot sector this year. Take a look at the percentages gained by the U.S. Major Indices, so far, this year.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) hit and closed above 9000 today (December 26)...an all-time (round number) high, as shown on the following monthly chart.

The Balance of Power lies with buyers on this timeframe and has yet to equal previous highs, potentially signalling there is further upside.

The next major resistance level (potential target) sits at the 1.5% external Fibonacci Retracement at 9104.87...just over 80 points away.

Will we see 9100 hit by year end?

And, on a longer-term perspective, will it continue to rally to eventually hit its next milestone round number at 10,000 sometime in 2020? The 2.0% external Fibonacci Retracement level (potential target) lies at 10,076.43.

After all, it gained a total of 2,565.33 points, so far, this year...so 1,000 next year would not be out of the question.

Perhaps FNGU will offer some clues as to tech strength or weakness. I last wrote about it in my post of December 8.

The following weekly chart shows that it, subsequently, spiked sharply upward, blew through its 50% Fibonacci Retracement level and closed today at 62.75...just 0.01 point shy of its 60% Fib level.

The Balance of Power lies with buyers on this timeframe and has made an all-time new high.

If price can blow through and hold above 62.76, then its next major resistance (potential target) lies above at 73.74...the 78.6% Fib level.

Merry Christmas 2019

The Queen's Christmas Message 2019...

Biggest Biden Gaffe of 2019

The monthly chart of World Indexes shows the meteoric rise of global markets, in general, this year (in fact, a gain of 21.68%, so far, in 2019), with the Balance of Power favouring buyers and its next resistance level around 2340.

What's not to like, Joe?

'Twas The Night Before Christmas

Click this link to watch the Norad Santa tracker live video...

TSLA: Next Target 450?

Tesla's (TSLA) meteoric rise from June this year has sent it to all-time highs, as shown on the following monthly chart...and has resulted in a 119.67% gain since then, as shown on the next graph. It's been heavily favoured above the FAANGs.

Based on the trajectory of the Andrew's Pitchfork formation, its next major resistance lies around the 450 level.

The Balance of Power lies firmly with buyers and is approaching an all-time high. Watch for that to continue on this longer-term timeframe to support a further rally.

On a shorter daily timeframe, as long as the RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators continue to rise, watch for further buying to, potentially, push the price to 450. However, as these indicators are approaching a retest of prior highs, we may see the buying slow or consolidate for awhile, before resuming a trek to that target.