A Joe Biden Stock Market

* See UPDATES below...

Former Vice-President Joe Biden may run for President in the 2020 election. He stated recently that his platform would be the Obama/Biden policies of yesteryear.

Were he to be elected, and if the old Obama policies were resurrected, we could very well see the S&P 500 Index return to pre-Trump levels around the 2200 level, or lower, as shown on the monthly chart below.

In the two years since President Trump took office, the SPX has gained around the same number of points as it did in the last four years of Obama's presidency. Those gains are in jeopardy, as uncertainty will weigh on markets in anticipation of a possible return to a more socialist agenda under Biden, or an even more far-left leaning Democrat.

Think about it...the Democrats' Green New Deal (et al) is only an election away...

* UPDATES September 21, 2019...

The fallout begins after reports surface of a so-called "whistleblower" (whether or not this person is a bonafide whistleblower is unclear at this moment) who is alleging inappropriate telephone discussions by President Trump with a foreign leader (possibly Ukraine)...and, it's beginning to look like this may, instead, boomerang back onto Democrats and, ultimately, former Vice President Joe Biden, who is running for President in the Democrat 2020 primaries...

Source: thegreggjarrett.com

Source: thehill.com

Source: nationalreview.com

Source: foxnews.com

Click here to watch video

Source: zerohedge.com

Click here to view video

Source: newyorker.com

Source: dailywire.com

Click here to watch video

And...it looks to me like if any administration was meddling in Ukraine's affairs, it was Obama's...

Source: thehill.com

Source: reuters.com

On September 22, Fox TV's Mark Levin interviews author and former law enforcement officer and Secret Service Federal agent, Dan Bongino about the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation.

Click here to view the video

And...from the horse's (Ukraine's) mouth...sounds to me like there's "no there there" regarding the allegations against Trump...

Source: reuters.com

Source: zerohedge.com

* UPDATE September 25...

President Trump has declassified and released a transcript of his phone conversation with the Ukrainian President...

Click this link to read the full transcript

And this analysis from WSJ  editorial page columnist Kimberley Strassel...

Click here to read Kim's entire Twitter thread

* UPDATE September 26...

The whistleblower's complaint has been declassified and all 9 pages can be read at this link.










And...a former CIA analyst rips it to shreds...

Source: dailywire.com

The Federalist co-founder Sean Davis reports that the "complaint from so-called 'Whistleblower' is riddled with gossip, blatant falsehoods"...

Source: thefederalist.com

I watched Acting Director of National Intelligence Joe Maguire testify before the House Intelligence Committee today on the whistleblower matter...and actually felt nauseated during the event.

I watched Democrat Adam Schiff, Chairman of that committee, and his Democrat colleagues shred American rights, freedom, liberty, rule of law and plain human decency during the proceedings...it was a parody of American democracy and amounted to a cruel and gross abuse of power, as was also on display by Democrats during the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings in the Senate.

Source: thefederalist.com

I had hoped that kind of behaviour wouldn't be repeated, but I see that it hasn't stopped...nor do I suspect that it will until the 2020 presidential election is over. In fact, I think it will only get worse, as Democrats continue their harassment of the President with "impeachment inquiries" by various House Committees, without the legal authority of a majority vote to do so by members of the full House of Representatives...Speaker Nancy Pelosi has yet to bring it to the floor for a vote.

Thank God I'm not an American, nor do I live in the USA...heaven help Hillary's "basket of deplorables" who do (Trump administration officials and the 63 million supporters who voted for him). How they are being (mis)treated is on full public display in Congress, as well as on the streets of America.

Click here to watch the hearing

It looks like Senator Chuck Schumer's January 3, 2017 warning to Trump (before he was even sworn in as President on January 20) was, indeed, prescient...the warning then...

Click here to watch video clip

Source: washingtonexaminer.com

And, the warning's relevance, now...

Source: thefederalist.com

Market reaction since the 2018 midterm elections has been volatile and non-directional, as noted within the pink box on the following monthly chart of the SPX.

Price has been unable to gain much traction since it broke above the first all-time high of 2872.87, that was made in January 2018.

A drop and hold below that level could see price retest the December 2018 low of 2346.58, or decline lower.

The information that was released today in this article from The Hill's John Solomon, with respect to Hunter Biden, is extensive...

"Hundreds of pages of never-released memos and documents -- many from inside the American team helping Burisma to stave off its legal troubles -- conflict with Biden's narrative.

And they raise the troubling prospect that U.S. officials may have painted a false picture in Ukraine that helped ease Burisma's legal troubles and stop prosecutors' plans to interview Hunter Biden during the 2016 U.S. presidential election." 

and raises two important questions at the end...

Source: thehill.com

Byron York writes that "Now, there is much more to be learned, and issues to be resolved as Democrats go forward with their drive to bring Trump down. Here are eight keys to the future fight"...

Source: washingtonexaminer.com

In their rush to impeach President Trump, Democrats may have sabotaged Joe Biden's bid for 2020 president...no doubt, he's now under the microscope...

Source: wsj.com

In any event, it seems like a few serious investigative journalists are more efficient and timely in uncovering and disseminating facts than Congress.

* UPDATE September 27...

This Fox News TV headline caught my attention this morning...it looks like Democrats' Green New Deal policies may not be so attractive for donors...combine that with what I've outlined above, and we may see their threat actualized, or, even, snowball...

"DEMOCRATIC DONORS THREATEN TO BACK PRESIDENT TRUMP"

And, to close out the week in markets...

* UPDATE September 29...

For an in-depth look at Joe and Hunter Biden, this video interview -- conducted today by Fox News TV host Mark Levin of author Peter Schweizer -- is illuminating and worth watching.

Click here to view the video

In any event, it looks like any President of the Unites States has a duty to investigate any information related to corruption/criminal activities, as outlined in this cover letter from former President Bill Clinton regarding a 1999 Treaty between the US and Ukraine (signed at Kiev in 1998 and ratified by the US Senate in 2000)...and, so it appears that President Trump was carrying out that duty during the course of his phone call with the Ukrainian President.

N.B. It appears to me that whether or not Joe Biden, or anyone else, would be swept up in an investigation by the Department of Justice and/or the Ukraine into any corruption/criminal activities would be incidental to the overall matter. Remember, Donald Trump was not President at the time of alleged corruption in the Ukraine prior to the November 2016 election...nor was he during the time that Hunter Biden was, allegedly, involved with Ukraine. Instead, Barack Obama was President and Joe Biden was his Vice President. These issues pre-date Joe Biden's decision to run as a Democrat 2020 presidential candidate...and, therefore, to use that argument in an attempt to impeach President Trump would be irrelevant and without merit, in my view.

* UPDATE October 4...

This ZeroHedge tweet just popped up today..."interesting" inasmuch as Ukraine, Burisma and a CIA whistleblower are in the news this week...

Source: huffpost.com

N.B.

• Further relevant information can be found at my subsequent posts here.
• No doubt, there will be many more news reports forthcoming in the days/weeks ahead...too numerous for me to continue to post. Suffice it to say, Messrs. Biden are under the microscope...whether all of this affects Joe's 2020 presidential election chances remains to be seen.

👀 Meanwhile, Putin's enjoying the chaos tempest-in-a-teacup, yet again...seeded by Democrats, yet again...with ties to the Ukraine, yet again...






P.S.

P.S.

More updates on Joe Biden can be read in my posts here.

SPX:VIX Ratio In "New Bull Market" Territory

Take a look at the following charts of the SPX:VIX ratio. Appearing in order,

• each candle on the first chart represents a period of one year,
• each candle on the next represents a period of one quarter,
• each candle on the next represents a period of one month, and
• each candle on the last represents a period of one day.

For the third day in a row, price closed on Tuesday above what I've called the 200 "New Bull Market" level since it first broke through during the first week in 2017. It still has a way to go before it runs into the 250-280 "Bull Froth Zone," where we've seen traders/investors spike the price first, then take profits in the SPX since then, beginning in May 2017.

Simply put, judging from the extremely bullish bias of the candle formations and the bullish signals of the technical indicators on all four charts and timeframes, I see no reason for this ratio not to retest this 250-280 "Bull Froth Zone" over the coming days/weeks. This means that the SPX will likely retest its prior all-time high of 2940.91, or spike higher at some point...provided that the SPX:VIX ratio holds above the 200 "New Bull Market" level.

In the short term, look for a bullish crossover (a "BUY" signal) to form on the PMO indicator on the daily chart, for the new bullish crossover (a "BUY" signal) to hold on the MACD, for the RSI to hold above 50 (a "BUY" signal), and for the recent bullish moving average Golden Cross formation (a "BUY" signal) to hold should the ratio price continue to rally, to support/confirm any higher prices in the SPX. Otherwise, we may see, either a period of sideways consolidation or a pullback in the SPX (depending on how skittish traders/investors are feeling), until it makes its next move to, potentially, new highs.

As an aside, the bullish comments referenced in my post of March 26 on U.S. 2-5-10-30-Year Bonds, still apply. As the level of market skittishness increases on SPX higher prices, no doubt, we'll see monies continue to flow into Bonds, possibly at an elevated rate...another clue to monitor for evidence of slowing enthusiasm for equities giving way to a growing demand for Bond hedging.

U.S. Bonds Inching Upwards

* See UPDATE below...

U.S. 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Bonds have been driving through prior resistance and inching upwards since the end of 2018, as shown on the following monthly charts.

Meanwhile, the following monthly SPX:VIX ratio chart shows that price has stalled just below the 200 "New Bull Market" level.

I anticipate that we'll likely see one last-gasp push in equities (SPX and other major indices) to, possibly a slightly higher all-time high, before we see a meaningful pullback/correction. Under that scenario, look for the SPX:VIX to break and hold above 200 and, potentially, retest the 280 all-time ratio high.

However, if the SPX:VIX fails to break and hold above 200 on an SPX rally, then I'd anticipate that we won't see a retest of the prior SPX high set in September 2018, but a fizzle before then, instead.

Either way, I anticipate that bonds will continue to gain ground...albeit perhaps slowly, but steadily.

Of note, is this astute observation from Slope of Hope's, Tim Knight...

Source: SlopeOfHope.com

I anticipate that a recession is on the way, if not this year, then likely next year...but likely slowing this year. I understand that Europe, China, Canada, and others are all slowing now. Watch the bond markets for clues and continued strength!

* UPDATE March 26...

Now this report from Investing.com...

Source: Investing.com

Asian Markets Falter...China's Shanghai Index At Major Resistance

Judging by one-day percentages lost, Monday's market action was a bad day for Asian markets, as shown below.

China's Shanghai Index is facing long-term major resistance at current levels, as shown on the following weekly chart of SSEC.

I've shown the input values of the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators as one period. They're both still below the zero level and have, in fact, been declining on recent attempts to move higher during March.

If price breaks and holds above, say, 3150,  I'd like to see both of these indicators also break and hold above zero, while making new highs, as well, to confirm the sustainability of any further meaningful advancement beyond that price.

Otherwise, look for this index to retest its last weekly swing low, or plunge lower, inasmuch as its stability at current levels is questionable.

And...now this...

Source: ZeroHedge.com

From This Week's "Smile File"...Chaos Theory

A bit of humour for the weekend...

Media & Americans Duped! A Criminal Dud!

The following is presented without prejudice.

* See UPDATES below...

Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation of alleged Russia-Trump campaign collusion has been concluded, as advised by Attorney General William Barr on Friday, my observations on what's been uncovered (in a nutshell) in that respect, are as follows.

What started out as political opposition research of Donald Trump and his political campaign in 2015/2016 by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and which was funnelled into the Obama State Department, DOJ and FBI, et al, through multiple sources and turned into a counter-intelligence investigation and subsequent Special Counsel investigation in search of criminal activities and leaked to multiple media outlets in order to, firstly, smear Trump and his chances of being elected as U.S. President, then, to hamstring his presidency, once elected, was, three years later, finally exposed for exactly what it was...a political vendetta and smear campaign and not a criminal matter.

Oppo Research ⇒ Criminal Investigation ⇒ Political Vendetta ⇒ Duped ⇒ Dud!

More on this entire process will be revealed by the U.S. Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, once he completes his separate ongoing internal investigation of numerous DOJ and FBI officials (and any others), which may be released in the next three months, or so.

So, this unabashed, unrelenting three-year political and media anti-Trump smear campaign and legal probe (which was based on salacious and unverified material, according to former FBI Director, James Comey) may end up producing unwanted consequences for the perpetrators involved in this entire complex process...and there could be many people exposed in this scheme. Whether any will be criminally indicted and prosecuted by current DOJ officials remains to be seen. No doubt, there will be much new information to come in the days/weeks ahead, in this regard.

I wonder what damage (not only on domestic matters, but also foreign policy issues) has already been inflicted on the President's ability to properly and fully discharge his duties to the American public, as he was duly elected and sworn in to carry out, because of this smear campaign. Meanwhile, the political chess game will likely continue through to 2020 and beyond, if President Trump is re-elected. At what point do endless and aimless political investigations become political harassment and constitutional overreach?

♔♕♖♗♘♙♚♛♜♝♞♟

Source: WSJ.com

Source: FoxNews.com (click link to view video)

Source: NationalReview.com

Source: TheHill.com

✵✵✵✵✵✵✵

Source: FoxNews.com...to view video, click here

* UPDATE March 24...

Attorney General Barr's 4-page summary letter (below) of Special Counsel Mueller's report was released today (the yellow highlight on page 1 is mine)...of note, are the following excerpts...

"...the Special Counsel did not find that the Trump campaign, or anyone associated with it, conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in these efforts, despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals to assist the Trump campaign."

"...Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and I have concluded that the evidence developed during the Special Counsel's investigation is not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense. Our determination was made without regard to, and is not based on, the constitutional considerations that surround the indictment and criminal prosecution of a sitting president."

Several reactions are as follows...

Contraction Mode Deepens For Germany's Manufacturing PMI

* See UPDATE below...

Germany's Manufacturing PMI continued its decline from 2017 highs and entered into contraction mode in January. Data released on Thursday shows this contraction deepening for February, as shown below.

Is this a precursor to a recession? Look for a pattern on next month's release (March 22) for possible clues.

The following monthly area chart of the DAX shows its toppiness on a long-term timeframe, after a long climb from 2003 and 2009 lows.

The following daily area chart of the DAX shows an abundance of overhead supply above the current price.

With two months of manufacturing PMI data now in contraction mode following a steady decline for the past year, it appears that this supply zone may pose a major resistance level for much of any further meaningful/sustainable rally.

Illustrated on the following daily candle chart of the DAX are the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC) and average true range (ATR) indicators. I've shown the input value of each as one period and in histogram format to depict daily changes in direction and strength of that direction. Keep an eye on whether or not we see an increase in each of these three on any further rally to determine the likelihood of its continuation into and through this overhead supply zone to eventually retest prior highs, or vice versa on a reversal/pullback/major selloff to retest December 2018 lows, or drop lower.

* UPDATE March 22...

Oops...contraction deepens! The next release date is April 24...

Potential Head & Shoulders Forming on Amazon

Amazon (AMZN) is forming a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern, as shown on the following weekly chart.

We'll see whether it plays out, in view of their decision today (Thursday) to abandon their project to build their second headquarters in Long Island, Queens...at a loss of 25,000 job for New York. Their statement is here and it describes the political opposition it received.

Keep an eye on the momentum (MOM), rate-of-change (ROC), and average true range (ATR) indicators for direction and velocity purposes going forward. I've shown their input value as one period to illustrate that more clearly.

Core Retail Sales m/m data released today (Thursday) were drastically in the red...a harbinger of things to come, or just a blip? One to watch over the coming months. Another month like this last one could hit AMZN and other retail giants hard.

Happy Valentine's Day