Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.


* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...





* Wed. July 31 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Sept. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Thurs. Nov. 7 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference
* Wed. Dec. 18 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Monday, December 06, 2021

SPX: Where Are We Now?

* See UPDATES below...

I recently wrote about the SPX and SPX:VIX ratio here.

In it, I mentioned that, "Volatility is rising and is fraught with large-scale whipsaw action...expect this to continue for the near future."

Take a look at the following graphic

Now compare it to the following monthly chart of the SPX.

I don't think anyone could be faulted if they labelled the SPX as being in the beginning of the "Blowoff Phase" (noted on the graphic) at or near the top of this extremely overextended long-term bull run...with "Public Money" most at risk.

The price has spiked far above the channel "mean" since it last touched it in May of 2020, and it will return at some point.

If so, and, as inflation continues to rise, look for volatility to continue into 2022 and watch for the "Smart Money" and "Institutional Investors" to divest themselves of high-risk assets (growth sectors), take profits, and hold cash for awhile, before rotating back into value sectors.

Perhaps Elon Musk had similar ideas when he sold some of his TSLA shares recently.

This link to Insiders Buying and Selling may provide such insight...as well as this link.

BUT, don't just take my word for it...someone else is predicting a blow-off to levels much lower than anticipated (article below)..."yowza" indeed.

And, as noted on the monthly chart above, the SPX channel "mean" is around 3200 at the moment, so a reversion to that level would wipe out gains from the past year and a half...who's prepared for that!

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE December 10...

The true cost of Biden's "Build Back Better" bill is exposed: it's "...shameless...patently absurd...mind bending logic..." to say that it's free.

ZeroHedge excerpt

And, with inflation running at 40-year highs (CPI = 8% m/m and 6.8% YoY...real inflation is up around 15% this year over last year), passage of this bill would cripple low and middle-income American taxpayers for a very long time.

Source: Forex Factory December 10, 2021

Source: Investing.com December 10, 2021

Source: Investing.com December 10, 2021

It would be reckless for market participants and taxpayers not to take these facts into consideration over the coming months.

* UPDATE December 11...

Are insiders engaging in ponzi schemes? As I mentioned above, keep an eye on their sales.

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE December 12...

Is this legal???

* UPDATE December 13...

And...there's more...

Some things haven't changed since 43 BC 😕...

Is anyone surprised?...

* UPDATE December 14...

Wait...there's more (inflation...PPI YoY = 9.6%)...and it will get worse...

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE January 9...

Is anyone surprised by this headline?