WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Stretch

Stretch

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Thurs. July 5 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Fri. July 6 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Thurs. July 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. July 18 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Geopolitical Influences on World Markets

The following year-to-date percentage gained/lost graphs of the U.S. Major Indices and Major Sectors show that market participants have favoured riskier technology, small-cap, and consumer cyclical stocks.

U.S. Major Indices Year-to-Date

U.S. Major Sectors Year-to-Date

As you can see from the following monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index, and Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), money has been flowing in and out of them on increased volatility all year since they peaked at or near their all-time highs in January...pretty much as I speculated in my Market Forecast for 2018 post at the end of last year.

With rising tensions related to the upcoming U.S. November mid-term Congressional election and other domestic political pressures, world politics and markets, North Korea, Iran, China, trade imbalances, emerging market challenges, increasing inflation and interest rates, and Central Bank money tightening measures in various countries, it's difficult to see where these markets will gain and hold traction to increase much beyond their highs of this year, on a broad scale.

As such, we may see this kind of money 'ebb and flow' scenario continue throughout the remainder of the year, with markets either stuck in their current trading ranges while rotating in and out of various sectors, or maybe drift higher in a slow, choppy and volatile manner, until some kind of major catalyst propels the markets decisively one way or the other. Perhaps we'll have a clearer idea once second quarter earnings releases begin in July as to company forecasts for the second half of 2018 and beyond, as well as more well-defined Central Bank and geopolitical policies and agendas.