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Monday, January 30, 2017

SPX: Moving Averages May Hold Key To Short-Term Moves

The voluminous amount of executive orders, press releases and discussions with foreign leaders that has taken place in the White House since January 20th, as well as the extensive media coverage that has been generated, seem to hint that this pace may continue over the next four years.

Because of this, it may be warranted to scrutinize the price actions of the S&P 500 Index, for example, around its 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages, in order to get a sense of the degree to which day-to-day and end-of-month market sentiment may be influenced by political (and Federal Reserve) actions (on a shorter-term basis).

As at mid-day today, the SPX has declined and is currently retesting its 20-day moving average, after breaking out last week above its high-basing pattern from early December last year. The RSI is hinting of future strength, while the MACD and PMO indicators have yet to confirm that (watch for bullish crossovers of these two for such confirmation).

Today's pullback may also be in anticipation of the upcoming Fed rate announcement this Wednesday, as well as normal month-end profit-taking.

A drop and hold below, firstly, the 20-day moving average and then major support at 2250, together with bearish crossovers of all three moving averages and the MACD and PMO indicators, as well as a drop and hold below 50 on the RSI could signal further weakness ahead in the SPX.

Otherwise, price stability around 2250, along with the continuation of a fairly smooth uptrending 20-day moving average, should see prices move higher in the short-to-medium term.

SPX Daily