WELCOME

Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Cabin

Cabin

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. Aug. 22 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. and Canadian markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
* Fri. Sept. 7 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Wed. Sept. 12 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Thurs. Sept. 13 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. Sept. 26 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Mon. Oct. 8 ~ Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday
* Tues. Nov. 6 ~ U.S. Midterm Elections
* Thurs. Nov. 8 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Thurs. Nov. 22 ~ U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving Day Holiday & NYSE closes early @ 1:00 pm on Fri. Nov. 23
* Wed. Dec. 19 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. & Wed. Dec. 25 & 26 ~ Canadian markets closed for Christmas & Boxing Day Holidays
* Tues. Dec. 25 ~ U.S. markets closed for Christmas Day Holiday & close early @ 1:00 pm on Mon. Dec. 24
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* Trade Wars have escalated and now include diplomatic wars PLUS President Trump is cannibalizing prior U.S. market gains with his tariff tantrums against its world trading partners, while destabilizing a delicate world market balance

Thursday, September 17, 2015

What Is The Fed REALLY Saying?

Is the Fed really saying that their present economic monetary policy dictates that they treat current economic conditions like they had to in March of 2009 (re: their decision today to leave Fed Funds Rate unchanged at zero to 1/4 percent)?

If so, then what does that say about the health of U.S. banks? Does that mean they're at the same stress levels as they were in 2009?

If so, then one could rationally conclude that the S&P 500 Index should not be trading 1,323 points higher than it was at the March 2009 lows, as shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below.


The message I'm seeing on the following Monthly ratio chart of SPX:VIX indicates that the current fear level of market participants equals that experienced back in April of 2011, when the SPX was trading at 1364 before it tumbled to 1074 and, eventually, rallied steadily  to reach all-time highs earlier this year.


CONCLUSIONS:

Both, today's message from the Fed and information on the SPX:VIX ratio chart, are telling me that the current valuation of the SPX (at 1990) is far above where it should be. My comments (and subsequent UPDATES) noted in this previous post regarding the SPX:VIX ratio still apply and are worth monitoring over the coming days and weeks.

* Tweeted by BNN's Andrew McCreath September 18th: