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Welcome and thank you for visiting!

The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...

Dots

...If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris

Paris

Events

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...
* Wed. May 23 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Meeting Minutes
* Mon. May 28 ~ U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day Holiday
* Wed. May 30 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ Beige Book Report
* Fri. June 1 @ 8:30 am ET ~ Employment Data
* Tues. June 12 @ 8:30 am ET ~ MoM & YoY CPI & Core CPI Data
* Wed. June 13 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement + FOMC Forecasts + @ 2:30 pm ET ~ Fed Chair Press Conference
* Tues. July 3 ~ U.S. markets close early at 1:00 pm ET
* Wed. July 4 ~ U.S. markets closed for Independence Day Holiday
* Wed. Aug. 1 @ 2:00 pm ET ~ FOMC Announcement
* Mon. Sept. 3 ~ U.S. markets closed for Labour Day Holiday
*** Click here for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events

IMPORTANT BLOG POST UPDATES...
* JCPOA - Will President Trump recertify the JCPOA on May 12?...stay tuned...May 8 the answer is "No"...US pariticipation in the deal
is scrapped...new sanctions coming for Iran and, possibly, for nations supporting Iran.

Friday, May 29, 2015

What's Ahead for the Rest of 2015 for the S&P 500 Index?

As shown on the daily chart of the SPX below, the 50-day MA has, for the most part, held as major support over the past 5 years. Until we see that level breached and held, the bulls will remain, essentially, in control of this market. Although, since the last round of QE stopped at the end of October 2014, this index has spent more time hugging, and circling tightly around, this MA than at any other time during these 5 years...signalling a weakening and, potentially, an end to this bull control.

Without the benefit of any further QE from the Fed, buyers will likely be reluctant to commit new money into this market, which is up 204.57% since the closing-low on March 3, 2009, as shown on the percentage-gained graph below. So, while the SPX continues to consolidate, we'll see the 50 and 200 MAs eventually merge until price, finally, breaks up or down. Once a bearish moving average Death Cross forms, we should see a significant drop in price. Until then, expect more of the same...and, my 2015 outlook for equities may very well come into fruition...at the moment, the SPX is up 3.01% year-to-date, as shown on the last percentage-gained graph...I had forecast an overall price increase of 4% for this year (it reached 3.49% on May 21st...the target high to be surpassed and held if bulls are to remain in control).

So, in a nutshell, I'd keep an eye on the 50 and 200 MAs and their spread (widening or decreasing), and the 4% target-price increase to gauge either weakness or strength for the SPX for the remainder of this year.