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The charts, graphs and comments in my Trading Blog represent my technical analysis and observations of a variety of world markets...
* Major World Market Indices * Futures Markets * U.S. Sectors and ETFs * Commodities * U.S. Bonds * Forex

N.B.
* The content in my articles is time-sensitive. Each one shows the date and time (New York ET) that I publish them. By the time you read them, market conditions may be quite different than that which is described in my posts, and upon which my analyses are based at that time.
* My posts are also re-published by several other websites and I have no control as to when their editors do so, or for the accuracy in their editing and reproduction of my content.
* In answer to this often-asked question, please be advised that I do not post articles from other writers on my site.
* From time to time, I will add updated market information and charts to some of my articles, so it's worth checking back here occasionally for the latest analyses.

DISCLAIMER: All the information contained within my posts are my opinions only and none of it may be construed as financial or trading advice...please read my full Disclaimer at this link.

Dots

* If the dots don't connect, gather more dots until they do...or, just follow the $$$...

Paris Cafe

Paris Cafe

ECONOMIC EVENTS

UPCOMING (MAJOR) U.S. ECONOMIC EVENTS...

***2026***
* Wed. July 29 @ 2:00 pm ET - FOMC Rate Announcement + Forecasts and @ 2:30 pm ET - Fed Chair Press Conference

*** CLICK HERE for link to Economic Calendars for all upcoming events.

Showing posts with label Economic Data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Data. Show all posts

Friday, October 14, 2022

SPX 2022: Buy Or Sell Or Stay Out?

* See UPDATES below...

The following excerpts are taken from my 2021 Market Wrap-Up and 2022 Forecast (much of which has transpired, so far, this year).


Judging from the volatile rollercoaster action in markets this year, it seems that traders would have been better off, if they had:

  1. liquidated their equity positions,
  2. then just stayed with cash ($USD),
  3. then gone on vacation,
  4. then waited for capitulation before jumping back in, as I've described here, here, here and here,
  5. AFTER the Fed has stopped raising interest rates.

Instead, we've witnessed a dog's breakfast of volatility that will likely continue, due to the market's penchant for trading on "greed and fear" and "rumour and news" tactics.

SPX Monthly

SPX Daily

How markets closed the week (percentages gained/lost this week)...

US Major Indices: One-Week % Gained/Lost

US Major Sectors: One-Week % Gained/Lost

World Currencies: One-Week % Gained/Lost

And this roundup for the week from ZeroHedge...

* UPDATE Oct. 15...

It looks like markets have more downside in store over the coming weeks and months...plus a lot of volatility...


ZeroHedge excerpt


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Oct. 19...

The following summary is taken from today's Beige Book report...the yellow highlights are mine.

The overall themes in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts are pessimismweakening demand, tight labour markets, and elevated prices.

Any way you look at things, if wages keep rising, this will contribute to higher inflation (in spite of potential lower prices) and lower returns for companies and their shareholders...and further volatility in the markets.

So, all in all, I'd say that today's report does not paint a rosy picture, for the foreseeable future.


Thursday, October 13, 2022

Part III: Joe Biden's Battle For Presidential Survival

N.B. Parts I and II regarding President Biden's massive policy blunders and scandals are described, in detail, here and here, respectively, for your edification.

Due to the extensive length of the prior articles, I've had to break them up into parts...Part III begins, as follows.

Today begins with the release of the latest CPI numbers. 

As you can see from the following ZeroHedge articles, inflation is still on the rise in the U.S., notwithstanding the Fed's attempts to curb it, via its series of interest rate hikes.

As I've previously detailed, ad nauseam, Joe Biden's failed policies are to blame...as the U.S. National Debt continues its parabolic spike above $31 Trillion...and, as U.S. National Security spirals further into a deep hole, thanks to his domestic and foreign actions, to date (e.g.,  Afghanistan...he was on holiday during that fiasco!)...etc.

PERIOD!




JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, no doubt, raised a few elite liberal globalists' eyebrows with his blunt comments today...regarding inflation, oil and gas, ESG, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump.

Even though Trump is NOT the current President, Wall Street still likes to bash him, even though the U.S. economy was exceptionally strong under his conservative policies, numerous accomplishments and his strong leadership).


ZeroHedge excerpt

As an aside, Dimon's bank, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), is trading above a major support level of 100.00, as shown on the following monthly chart...after plummeting from its parabolic high of 172.33, set in November 2021.

It has traded almost in lock-step with the Financials ETF, XLF. Should XLF continue to drop, it may drag JPM down to 100.00, or lower, as well. 

As noted in the article above, they are expected to report their Q3 earnings tomorrow...so, we'll see what happens.

And, of course, oil and gas producers are not fans of President Biden's green energy agenda.

So far, Joe Biden has:

  • BRAGGED about ending the fossil fuel industry during (and after) his 2020 campaign for President (while draining America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve for political gains),
  • BLAMED eveyone and everything (Putin, the war in Ukraine, oil companies, Trump), but himself for spiking oil and gas prices and inflation, and
  • BEGGED dictatorships to produce more oil (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran).
This is a black eye for America's energy indepence, previously enjoyed under former President Trump...and a grave threat to its national security.


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

So, will these guys vote for Republicans in the November midterm elections

If not, what's their excuse for whining after that? 🤔

Interesting how prescient this political cartoon was
pre-2020 Presidential election. 😏

* UPDATE Oct. 19...

Sounds like the DOJ/FBI have been dragging their feet on this long-standing issue and have some explaining to do...

* UPDATE Oct. 24...

They're not alone...😕

* UPDATE Nov. 3...

Biden's..."'hostile' federal administrators installed to attack the energy industry."

Not only that, and, as a result of high inflation and energy prices, it seems that Joe Biden doesn't care how much pain and hardship his draconian policies cost his citizens and turns them into debtor-serfs

He's tone-deaf to their struggles...and voters are noticing.

We'll see what happens on November 8 (midterm election day)! 👀

If a "red wave" occurs (Republicans retake the House and Senate with a clear majority), President Biden has no one but himself to blame! 🤔


The following article lays out an excellent summary of Joe's "accomplishments" during the past two years.

It's not a pretty picture...


ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

If Democrats think that Barack Obama's voice on the campaign trail in the days before the midterm election will be a plus for their party, they've obviously forgotten all about the 1,000+ seats he lost them during his 8 years as President!

* UPDATE Dec. 22...

An insightful video discussion on December 18 with Fox News TV host Mark Levin and his guests, covering Joe Biden's performance as President, etc...

N.B. Due to the length of this post, you can continue to read updates at this link (Part IV: Joe Biden's Battle For Presidential Survival).


Thursday, July 28, 2022

Part II : Joe Biden's Presidential Survival

 

N.B. This post is a continuation of my lengthy article, "How Long Can President Biden Survive in 'Survival Mode?'" (Part I), which provides extensive background information, data and links to public articles.

~~~~~~~~~

* See UPDATE below...

The MSCI World Index has been in freefall since January, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Major support sits at 2000, while longer-term supports lies at 1600.

Threats of world-wide recession are looming, as described in the following article...


ZeroHedge excerpt

The following posts provide further details and warnings in this regard:

Trade with caution!

The U.S. is now in a technical recession...but the hucksters  (including President Biden) would have you believe that technical data doesn't matter and that everything is rosy...


The following sums up the current chaotic state of affairs...choose your definition and place your bets accordingly, if you dare. 😏

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE July 29...

Nice to know that America is not experiencing famine...White House gobbledegook blatant lies have gotten even more bizarre! 😕

Joe Biden and his cronies are completely tone-deaf and just don't care about Americans

Consumers are experiencing stress, not confidence, in Biden's economy...

Oh, look...more examples of Democrat hypocrisy...👀

More scandals surface in Joe's FBI...targeting Americans, including parents of school children.

Reminder of Joe's soft-on-China policies...why, if his own FBI has testified before Congress, warning that China is America's biggest threat?

Time's running out for Joe to right the entire mess that he created.

* UPDATE Aug. 1...

Of course the U.S. is in a recession (or a "banana" as was sarcastically called during former President Jimmy Carter's recession, because he forbade the usage of that term).

If you put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig. 😏


ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Aug. 5...