Will China's Shanghai Index Reach Escape Velocity?

China's Shanghai Index is up against a 'rock and a hard place,' namely a long-term downtrend line, as shown on the following monthly chart of SSEC.

We'll see if it reaches escape velocity should it break out and hold above this trendline...or simply retreat.

After all, it is trading in it's "froth zone," as I described in my last SSEC post...and, historically, it's rare that it remains there very long.

Monthly chart of SSEC

* UPDATE December 3...

China's economic woes are dramatically accelerating, as noted in the following article...not a healthy sign to support any kind of sustained 'escape-velocity scenario' above this long-standing downtrend line!

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE December 15...

More bad economic news for China...

Source: ZeroHedge

Will China's Shanghai Index Get Blown Out of Its "Froth," Again?

I wrote about China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) on August 22, 2023, as shown below.

I noted that, since March of 2007, any attempts to rise and stay above 3000 resulted in price being blown off numerous times to fall back into what I called a 'Chaos Zone' between 2000 and 3000.

It is currently trading above above this zone, after breaking above long-term intersecting trendlines, which offers a level of support around 3100, as shown on the monthly chart below.

Since early 2016, price has, essentially, held above 2700, which offers near-term major support.

However, the area in which it now sits is what I've dubbed as "Froth," inasmuch as it has never risen and held its gains since it ventured into it in early 2007...before the infamous 2008 U.S./Global Financial Crisis.

China has been around for over 4,000 years and has found ways to remain flexible and resilient throughout its long history...seemingly focusing on the 'long game' and its quest for 'win-win' solutions to problems.

In that context, I doubt whether it will crumble in the next four years because of President Trump's global tariff war and his 'I-win-you-lose' strategy. President Xi has been busy this week making trade deals with multiple Asian countries to mitigate the effects of Trump's tariffs. No doubt, he will continue to seek other alternatives and opportunities, as well.

So, should the SSEC hold above 3100, we may see it continue to rise. However, in the current volatile global environment, we'll see if it can, at least, remain above 2700...for the next four years (until the next U.S. federal election and change of President).

Should President Trump fail to reconsider his damaging global tariff policies before it's too late, the U.S. may end up reaping the fallout. He has likely created the 'world's biggest economic wobble' in modern history, while synchronously earning the title of 'untrustworthiness,' thereby creating a 'hostile environment' in the United States that would not foster any kind of fair and lasting trade partnership with other countries, nor attract new business from foreign investors.

* UPDATE April 24...

President Trump has been caught in more lies...this time by the Chinese, as reported below.

As I said, no one can trust anything he says...so, watch and wait for WRITTEN trade agreements, signed by both parties...before taking any meaningful action in the markets.

Until then, volatile whipsaw trading will continue, generated by more daily "fake news" headlines and preposterous claims from Trump.

Source: ZeroHedge

Trump's Big Red Button Activates International Economic Warfare

On February 1 President Trump signed an executive order that imposes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective February 4...outside of the terms of the existing tri-lateral USMCA trade agreement involving these countries. 

This is odd, considering he bragged about renegotiating and signing this agreement on November 30, 2018, which replaced the prior prior NAFTA trade agreement.

The leaders of Canada and Mexico are retaliating with their own tariffs, as well as multiple measures by individual Canadian provinces (such as this), sparking a potential catastrophic trade war for all concerned.

At of the time of writing this post, President Trump has refused to take Canadian Prime Minister's phone calls placed to him since the date he was inaugurated.

The President is also imposing 10% tariffs on China, who are considering their response..and said he's also considering adding tariffs on Europe, the UK, and Taiwan, etc., as well as sanctions on, as yet, undefined entities. He is also dismantling USAID as described here and here....and has been busy taking other actions at home and abroad.

Tariffs and sanctions would spike already highish levels of inflation, as well as produce multiple job and industry losses worldwide...and create huge losses for foreign and domestic investors in a variety of sectors directly and indirectly impacted by his actions...potentially leading to a recession in some countries.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: NBC Philadelphia/CNBC

The Wall Street Journal has dubbed Trump's action as "The Dumbest Trade War in History."

Source: WSJ Opinion

As I write this article Sunday evening, U.S. futures markets (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) are tanking along with Chinese/Asian/Aussie/European markets, WTI Crude Oil is spiking, and the U.S. Dollar is spiking thereby tanking the Canadian Dollar and other world currencies.

N.B. Updated details on overnight trading can be found here.

The President's pretext (based on the text of the executive order) for the imposition of these tariffs is, at best, flimsy, and, at worst (based on his ever-changing rhetoric, outright factual lies and repeated taunts), unjustly punitive, bullying, hostile, nonsensical, reckless, and smacks of imperialism, as well as geopolitical and sovereign cannibalism. It also appears to be politically and personally motivated, in some cases.

We'll see how long this tariff warfare lasts, and the extent of unnecessary economic and political damage it causes around the world.

N.B. In the meantime, Canada needs to wise up and diversify its trade internationally and inter-provincially, as it cannot tolerate being subjected to irrational whims of a belligerent, erratic foreign leader who wants to annex it via these legally-suspect tactics (Canada becoming the 51st state of America)...especially one who verbally keeps changing the goal posts of what it is he's actually after.

N.B. On the other hand, since Mr. Trump seems intent on joining the U.S. with Canada, perhaps the U.S. should, instead, become, either the 11th Canadian Province, or its 4th territory...forming a much larger Canada...BUT, first, they have to pay off their $36+ Trillion national debt and clear up and eliminate all their fiscal and political fraud, waste and abuse (UPDATE Feb. 23: this elimination has begun, as detailed here), because Canadians do NOT want to be saddled with any of it...nor, do they want their country to become the 51st state. How's that for a "reciprocal" proposal, Mr. President...your favourite word these days! 😏

Markets hate uncertainty.

Buckle up!

* UPDATE February 3...

Both Canada and Mexico have been given a tariff reprieve of 30 days to enact a plan that (presumably) satisfies the President's concerns outlined in his executive order related to fentanyl and illegal migration along the northern and southern U.S. borders, as described in this article.

So, we'll see what happens.

However, it appears that there's more to this than meets the eye in that regard.

First off, President Trump will need to identify exactly what the "economic" problems are that, supposedly, need 'fixing,' to which he has alluded at the end of his latest post (below) on his social media platform. So far, his actions and rhetoric have all been theatrical megalomaniacal insanity...not based on a rational broad mutually-cohesive strategic economic plan!

So, who knows what would ever satisfy him regarding tariffs. Let's hope that common sense prevails.

But, don't hold your breath.

* UPDATE February 4...

President Trump's threat of tariffs on China became a reality today, with China retaliating with tariffs of its own against the U.S., as described below.

Source: ZeroHedge

P.S. In addition to the above tariffs, President Trump has promised that more tariffs are also in store for a number of specific goods from Canada, Mexico, China and multiple other countries worldwide.

There is no hibernating this winter for the 'global inflation bear who has been poked.'

Keep an eye on potential business and personal bankruptcies and the effect on U.S. banks over the coming weeks/months.

BEWARE!

* UPDATE March 3...

AND...the negotiating is over...global tariff wars begin...and more on this here...

Source: ZeroHedge

BUCKLE UP...again! 👀

More on banks and tariffs here.

Joe's Out...Kamala's In...BRACE YOURSELVES

This post is a continuation of the story I've laid out over multiple articles covering President Joe Biden during his first (and only) four-year term in office...the latest post in that six-part series can be read here...and a reminder post here.

In this new post, the script now changes with the main character shifting from Joe Biden to VP Kamala Harris. 

Biden was unceremoniously dumped by the leaders of his party (Nancy Pelosi and former President Obama), and Democrats simply 'annointed' Harris as their new 2024 nominee for Presidential candidate in the upcoming November election without a single primary voter casting a vote for her, unlike 14,500,000 Americans who voted for Biden during the primaries (whose votes were, effectively, ignored and disgarded)...DEMOCRATS' TWISTED VERSION OF DEMOCRACY! 🤔

How is this even legal/constitutional?

Today Ms. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) (another 'old white guy') as her running mate for VP.

Both Harris and Walz are described as extreme, radical, far-left socialist Democrats (and the "most-left wing ticket in U.S. history," as per Florida Governor Ron Desantis), who have to pay influencers and celebrities to promote them on-line or headline their rallies, as outlined in the following articles.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Ms. Harris is also willing to use media deception to win...

Source: ZeroHedge

Who is Tim Walz? Check out these eye-openers...and more here...

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Another point of view on Tim Walz' lies about his military record for personal gain, and the extreme far-left political policies and actions that he's taken over many years, suggests that he is "unqualified for leadership at any level" and is "unfit for political office"...

Source: ZeroHedge

Even Tim Walz' eldest brother had, to put it politely, unflattering things to say about him and does not support his political policies...

Source: ZeroHedge

So, as a warning, it's worth repeating my above reminder, as follows...

PART VI: Joe Biden's Presidential Battle For Survival: IT'S OVER, JOE...IT'S TIME TO GO!

 N.B. Parts I, II, III, IV and V regarding President Joe Biden's massive policy blunders and scandals are described in detail here, here, here, here and here, respectively, for your edification.

Due to the extensive length of the prior articles, I've had to break them up into parts. Part VI begins, as follows, with the latest scandal, Biden's failing mental and physical acuity/health.

After watching the Presidential debate on TV last night between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, I only have seven words:

It's over, Joe...it's time to go!

For a multitude of supporting reasons, please refer to the following article, as well as my above-referenced articles, all of which factor into my summation.

We'll see what happens between now and the upcoming Presidential election on November 5. 

The longer Joe stays in the race, the more his cognitive and health decline will be reinforced...giving his opponent an ever-increasing margin of victory to retake the White House next January...and the Democrats less and less time to replace him on the ballots.

HOWEVER, a word of warning...any replacement (including his VP Kamala Harris, who is even less popular with voters and a more extreme, radical far-left socialist than Biden...check out this article to prove my point) will still bring Joe's failed socialistic policies/agenda of:

• high taxes, 
• high spending, 
• high inflation, 
• exploding national debt and personal debt, 
• extreme (punitive) regulations, 
• oversized/redundant government agencies, 
• restrictive mandates (e.g., COVID-19, ESG, DEI),
• unconstitutional/illegal executive orders (in contravention of Supreme Court rulings and the Constitution), 
• persecution of religious rights,
• censorship and/or punishment of free speech and freedom of expression rights,
• high crime and reduced or non-existent punishment laws, 
• defunding of police and ICE agencies, 
• open borders exacerbating national security risks,
• a war on oil and gas production,
• a penchant for starting/extending reckless and costly wars,
• weak foreign relations and policies, etc.,

inasmuch as the Democrat party of the elite has swung to the extreme far-left without regard for middle and lower-income taxpayers. 

In other words, your quality of life will continue to deteriorate under the rule of Democrats, regardless of who is the leader.

Source: ZeroHedge

More articles in support of my position are as follows...

Source: The New York Times

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Special Counsel Robert Hur

* UPDATE July 3...

Oh, how politicians love to 'gaslight' the public...the proof is in actual facts that bely those lies...

Source: ZeroHedge

As the 'dementia-gate' plot thickens, it's only a matter of time...the question is, will President Biden resign (or be forced to) before his first term is up? 

The second question is, why is his convicted-felon and crack-addict son, Hunter Biden, sitting in on meetings and what security clearances does he have? 🤔

Source: ZeroHedge

Can you imagine what expletives the media pundits and politicians (of both parties) would be screaming if former President Trump had said this?...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 6...

OMG!!! 😮...

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

And...more shocking revelations about and examples of Joe Biden's rapidly-declining mental and physical health are detailed  here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here (by the way, notice from references in these articles how the Democrat party has become the party of "mega-donor elites"...NOT the party of the "little guy" or the "middle and working class").

He's, literally, falling apart before everyone's eyes. 

I do not think he will be able to serve out his term until January 20, 2025 and am wondering when he will either resign or be forced out by his cabinet members and VP via the implementation of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States...as is more thorougly argued in this article.

* UPDATE July 9...

Now that all the gaslighting has been exposed, what's next for Biden's political future, as well as the national security of America? 

People are, rightly, angry and completely disillusioned with the deception of Democrats and the mainstream media over the past four years.

The November election results will be "interesting," but will they be honest and believable?

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 13...

Joe Biden's and Democrats' "Big Green Grift" will become extinct in the next several years, as it will be inadequate to generate the electical capacity needed to power AI data centers in the U.S. (which will require "a lot of fossil fuels and a lot of nuclear").

This confirms that the President and his minions, who've been funding and implementing mandating their restrictive and socialistic policies, are sorely lacking in innovative forward-thinking capabilities.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 17...

President Biden's circle of support keeps shrinking each day...as donors and voters gravitate toward former President Trump and his 20-point platform/agenda (in furtherance of his accomplishments achieved during his 2017-2021 presidency) to unite and move the country forward to improve Americans' lives, which have been destroyed by Biden's woke (extreme far-left socialist) policies/mandates/agenda...

Source: ZeroHedge

Former President Trump,
post-assassination attempt
July 13, 2024

(latest discovery info, so far, detailed here)

Joe Biden...the "placeholder President"...😏

* UPDATE July 19...

Democrats and some of their media pundits have been arguing that it would be bad for Joe Biden's "legacy" if he stayed in the presidential election race and lost to Donald Trump...and have been using it as a lame excuse to push the idea that another Democrat candidate should replace Biden before or at the upcoming August DNC convention.

But, think about this...somebody else's "legacy" and political future (for 2028 and beyond) could also be in jeopardy if they ran and lost to Trump.

By the way, which Democrat politician is going to be dumb enough to risk their current reputation, as well as their potential for future advancement in the coming years, if he/she replaced Biden as the Democrat presidential candidate...only to lose to Trump? 🤔

HR Clinton...again? I don't think so.

VP Kamala Harris...a possible scapegoat and middle finger by Joe Biden to the Democrat elites who are forcing him to step down? Under that scenario, SHE RISKS HER reputation and legacy, and JOE DOES NOT. So, KARMA works in mysterious ways. 😏

Thus, their "legacy" argument is without merit and lacks authenticity.

I think they're stuck with Joe Biden for 2024...unless something big changes that scenario.

N.B. If Biden does withdraw his candidacy, he should also immediately resign as President...is he's unfit to run, he's unfit to serve.

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge image

* UPDATE July 20...

Democrats' 'political coup' against Joe Biden appears to be picking up the pace.

So much for their nauseating and hate-filled "anti-democracy" theme that they've been hypocritically spewing non-stop against Donald Trump during this election cycle...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

The Biden/Harris administration's near-destruction of America and gaslighting to Americans have ruined it for everybody...

Source: ZeroHedge

~~~~~~~

So...who's really been running the whole show behind the scenes, in addition to multiple dishonest mainstream media agencies, since Joe Biden took office???

This debate was only the latest in a series of awful appearances (that were accurately covered by a very few media outlets, such as Fox News and ZeroHedge) that have exposed his mental and physical incompetence and incapacity to govern as President during the past three and a half years.

Who is the puppeteer President??? 🤔

~~~~~~~

N.B. Remember...a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for VP Kamala Harris, inasmuch as she would automatically become President if anything were to happen to Biden, if he is elected to serve a second term.

~~~~~~~

* UPDATE July 21...

Finally, President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race...and has endorsed VP Kamala Harris, an extreme, radical far-left socialist and Joe's possible 'scapegoat' (see my explanation of this label in my above UPDATE of July 19), to run for President.

BUT, former President Obama has NOT endorsed her. Instead, he's supporting some kind of mini-primary to allow for other potential Democrats candidates to throw their hat into the ring and be voted on, with one being elected, at the upcoming DNC convention in August by 3,936 Democrat delegates who represent the millions of primary voters who already voted for Biden as their nominee. Whether this is even legal or constitutional remains to be answered.

Talk about an undemocratic election process for all 14,500,000 primary voters who thought they were voting for Joe Biden! 🤔

So, as of now, Americans don't know who former President Donald Trump (R) will face as his opponent in the November election.

By the way, if Democrats want to now brag about and elevate the possibility of electing a WOMAN to be President, just remember and ponder these gems touted as part of their nonsensical genderless screed, plus the fact that President Biden's Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, couldn't define what a "woman" was when questioned by Senator Marsha Blackburn during her confirmation hearing...and, ask yourself, do you really want to be subjected to more of this extreme far-left nonsense (including ESG and DEI policies/mandates) for the next eight years by another Democrat administration? 

As an aside, if Joe Biden is unfit to run for President, he's unfit to serve as President until January 20, 2021...he's now facing numerous calls to resign.

What a chaotic mess! Can anything more weird happen before the election? 👀

Source: ZeroHedge

Unknown 2024 

Democrat Presidential Candidate

* UPDATE July 23...

USSS Director Kimberly Cheatle resigned today, following her tight-lipped appearance before the House Oversight Committee yesterday, where she received a bi-partisan tongue lashing and calls for her resignation.

So, who will replace her and how long will it take to get transparent and full answers from multiple investigations into the assassination attempt against former President Trump?

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE July 24...

Exactly who is VP Kamala Harris and what are her extreme, radical far-left socialist policies?

Read on for a shocking eye-opener...

Source: ZeroHedge

Link to post on X

Even the Black Lives Matter organization called out Democrat delegates as the "party of hypocrites" for side-stepping a proper primary process for voters to vote for and nominate their presidential candidate, but who, instead, simply annointed her as their chosen one...

Source: Fox News

Source: ZeroHedge

Then, there's this 'clarification' that's been circulating on social media...

N.B. Wikipedia info. on her ancestry

at this link

And, now this regarding her ancestry...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

It seems that all is not well in 'Democrat world.' 👀

* UPDATE July 28...

In spite of her and others' attempts to "whitewash" her past record, many more details are being uncovered and revealed about Harris' 'actual' radical positions and policies that she has espoused and/or implemented during her varied political positions that she's occupied over the years...

Source: ZeroHedge

And, more revealed on this Fox News video...

Click here to watch video

Woops! Looks like VP Harris thinks 18-24 year-olds are "stupid"...so much for their vote for her in November! 🤔

Link to video clip on X

* UPDATE August 1...

More dangerous weakness is on frightening display from the Biden/Harris administration when it comes to protecting national security from foreign terrorists.

A major terrorist attack(s) within the U.S. is/are only a matter of time.

BEWARE during voting season.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Welcome to Democrats' and their media pundits' "bait-and-switch con" of the alleged 'new-and-improved Kamala Harris.'

So far, she, herself, has NOT articulated directly to the public and to voters exactly what her policies will be. In fact, her so-called 'flips' on her extreme far-left past policies are only being conveyed by 'anonymous sources' to the media.

BEWARE and do your own research on Ms. Harris and what she represents and clearly presents/promises BEFORE voting.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE August 4...

BRACE YOURSELVES: Dark days ahead and panic lurk on many fronts...multiple types of 'Black Swan Events' await...

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

(How markets closed following Monday's crash)

SPX:VIX Ratio

Monday's World-wide Market Crash

Source: ZeroHedge

P.S. For what it's worth, Congress finished their impeachment investigation of President Biden and announced in their 291-page report that he engaged in impeachable conduct in multiple ways, as described in the following article.

So, I guess that's that, then...he will exit his four years in office, dragging this tarnished legacy with him. 

Source: ZeroHedge

P.S. Joe Biden can add this pardon to his tarnished legacy...after repeatedly lying for years to the American public that he would NOT pardon his son, Hunter...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

N.B. My continuation of updates regarding VP Kamala Harris can be found here.