The US 10-year treasury yield (US10YT) has now reached a fairly substantial decades-long resistance level, as shown on the monthly chart below.
If it holds above today's break of 4.70, we could see a run towards 6.00, or higher...possibly depending on how the US war against Iran proceeds in the next few weeks/months.
Bitcoin in a nutshell...CHAOS...over and over again.
Not for the faint of heart! 🤢
UPDATE:
Bitcoin's extreme volatility renders it unsuitable for normal technical analysis, as has been done in the following report.
IMHO it's simply an overhyped 'kleptocurrency'...as are the rest of these cryptocurrencies.
* See UPDATES below...
Either President Trump is very naive about 'fabricated reports' from the Middle East regarding Iran's so-called willingness to make a deal with the US, or he is simply playing games and stalling the inevitable scenario...further military action to finish off the Iranian regime's reign of terror against its citizens and other countries in the Middle East and around the world.
I suspect he will have to make a decision one way or another very soon. People are growing weary of all the shenanigans (BS) on both sides. All talk and no action won't be tolerated by the price-gouged (global) public much longer.
Trump can either set the terms in the Free-World's favour and act on them, or Iran will do it their way.
He has a choice...either make it or surrender it.
By the way, Iran needs to 'man up' and negotiate directly (face to face) with US representatives if they're serious about striking a deal with them...not through a third party, from which unreliable reports (lies) emanate.
Failure to do so will never produce a deal...only a prolonged and destructive war.
UPDATE:
Furthermore, a 60-day tentative extension of a ceasefire is NOT a bona fide permanent peace agreement...just more delay and uncertainty on the issue of removing the enriched uranium from Iran and the permanent dismantling of their nuclear program, which remains a major global threat to international security.
Looks like President Trump has lost sight of that issue (one of his major goals) and is surrendering that matter to Iran by allegedly agreeing to watered-down piecemeal arrangements...which may include the early release of some seized Iranian funds in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
That would be a loss for the US and a win for Iran, because it was already open before the war and billions of dollars were frozen decades before this current conflict under extensive US sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Plus, Iran could then use the monies to buy/build more drones and missiles to replenish their depleted stockpiles...rendering Trump's bombings, to date, all for naught...while still in possession of their enriched nuclear materials.
Both the US and Iran need to 'man up' and negotiate face to face to settle all issues at once, rather than through a third party...and cut the drip, drip BS...people are fed up with it all!
Incidentally, other Western world countries need to 'man up' and offer support to the US to ensure that it is successful in these negotiations, inasmuch as their prior involvement in the now-defunct JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) provided significant mutual reinforcements and assistance to each other in enforcing a unified policy to constrain Iran's nuclear program.
So far, they've taken a hands-off approach to this situation.
Since it was in their interest then, why wouldn't it be now?
UPDATE:
From this latest report, it looks like the only thing that has been accomplished by the ceasefire, so far, has been the ability of Iran to restore and reopen 20 airports that were damaged in this war.
Plus, Iran is still in possession of its enriched nuclear materials and nuclear facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
So, where's the upside to the US in this ceasefire? 🤔
HINT...
A "creative visionary" would find a way to streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts of this conflict (including goals and impediments), and accelerate the process of achieving global economic, financial and military security/stability...in part, by turning the impediments into common goals for all parties.
And, a "creative opportunist" would find a way to capitalize on this process.
UPDATE:
So far, I haven't seen any evidence of either party possessing such creative thinking and negotiating abilities in order to reach and sign a final agreement that contains common goals, as backed up here and here.
Frankly, I don't believe that terrorists have the capacity or desire to seek any common goals with the Western world and the Middle East...as repeatedly demonstrated by Iran's combative rhetoric and actions for the past 46 years under the dictatorship of the Ayatollah and his henchmen.
I predict that the situation will get much worse right through the midterm elections in November, especially as low and middle-income Americans (living paycheque to paycheque) continue to suffer economically and will likely voice their concerns in the way they vote.
Billionaires, such as the President, and long-term investors/market makers may not care how long this drags out, or be worried about the midterm elections, but average Americans do/are.
And, who has the appetite to participate in Trump's 250th July 4th celebrations under these uncertain and unappealing conditions? 👀
UPDATE:
WTF has Trump been smoking!
He's getting more unbelievable by the day with his ridiculous vacillatory, contradictory, hyped-up comments.
His 'so-called' negotiating tactics are not clever...just plain stupid, clueless, overblown, bizarre and irritating.
Plus, his tone towards Iran seems to have softened since his visit with President Xi in China in mid-May...case in point. Coincidence?
It's becoming clearer that a decent deal for the US regarding Iran will not be forthcoming.
PERIOD!
UPDATE:
An alleged Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, as described in this article, is not the same as a FINAL deal.
The so-called negotiations of items and terms outlined in an MoU (and, by extension, the conflict) will drag on forever...case in point here and here (39 'deals' announced by DJT, so far 🫤).
Even Europe is forecasting further uncertainty ahead, as the ECB has just raised interest rates by 0.25% due to rising inflation.
Buckle up!
P.S. As of June 19th, a signed copy of the MoU containing the entire text has NOT been released to the public on the White House website...(allegedly signed by the Presidents of the US and Iran this week).
What's the big secret? 🤔
In any event, I repeat..."It's becoming clearer that a decent deal for the US regarding Iran will not be forthcoming."
PERIOD!
P.P.S. From this report, it appears that President Trump underestimated Iran's response in this war, which has proven to be very costly (in the US and globally) in many ways...monetarily, economically, politically, militarily, and strategically.
Their leaders are also masters at deceit, delay, obfuscation and manipulation tactics, as has been demonstrated for decades.
So, who is the 'winner' in this war? 👀
UPDATE:
As predicted, it looks as though no progress has been made since the signing of the MoU.
Rather, things are unraveling between Iran and the US, as per the latest reports here, here...and here.
So, back to 'square one.'
By the way, what's the point of negotiating when neither party has a common goal (terrorism/war versus peace in the Middle East) upon which a deal can ever be made? 🤔
UPDATE:
Not unexpected, the US war against Iran has resumed, as noted in the article below.
So, we'll see what happens...
UPDATE:
Will these intensified US military actions finally "streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts of this conflict (including goals and impediments), and accelerate the process of achieving global economic, financial and military security/stability...in part, by turning the impediments into common goals for all parties?"
Translation: Will Iran capitulate?
We'll see...
~~~~~~~
MEANWHILE:
Meanwhile, back in the USA, the Democrat party (whose campaign funds on hand are at an extreme low as donors' contributions have dried up) is rapidly being infiltrated and primaried by members of the extreme far-left DSA (running for Mayors, Governors, and seats in State and Federal Houses & Senates), whose socialist/communist agenda would destroy American democracy/federalism, as governed by its Constitution.
So far, I haven't heard any pushback or rejection of their ideas/ideology from senior members and leaders of the Democrat party on this destructive movement...destructive to national security and the survival of the country.
So, America's biggest threat may not be from another country, such as Iran, but from nefarious forces working within the Democrat party. 👀
PERIOD!
The DSA's insane radical platform, seen below, is an extension of, and more extreme than, far-left Democrats' failed Green New Deal and ESG/DEI policies, as well as former President Joe Biden's (D) inflationary, et al, disastrous policies...who could forget those four years when inflation increased from 1.4% when he took office in January 2021 (following Trump's first term as President) to 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022 (cumulative inflation increased by over 20% across his for four-year term)!
PLUS, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently warned 60 global nations against the resurgence and rising threat of far-left international political terrorism, as noted below.
Also, Secretary Rubio issued this report which alleges Cuba's decades-long communist influence/interference in America.
Another case in point is this article regarding mass migration, clashing social values and media bias in the UK.
So, this threat to "destabilize Western civilization" is worldwide and needs to be dealt with ASAP.
~~~~~~~
UPDATE:
The US war in Iran is escalating, once more, as noted in this report.
If Israel joins this next phase, and depending on its scale, intensity and consequences, we'll see how quickly (or not) Iran and any other incidental/associate targets finally capitulate and stop their military attacks in the region.
No doubt, we'll see some wild fluctuations in the markets over the next while...e.g., WTI/Brent Crude Oil and US10YT.
Stay tuned...
UPDATE:
Reports of Iran's surprising rapid rebuilding efforts, following the initial bouts of 20,000 bombings by the US and Israel (known as Operation Epic Fury), are leaking out now, as described in this article.
The question is, does the US have any idea, and any control over, what it will take for Iran to capitulate? 🤔
We'll see...
UPDATE:
If this report is accurate, I'd say that Trump's recent blustery and bravado threats to Iran were simply idle off-the-cuff comments and not backed up by any imminent massive military actions.
After all these months, it's unclear if, as Commander-in-Chief, he knows what he's doing from one day to the next...or how to even create and follow a comprehensive strategic matrix to get to his so-called end game.
Rather, it appears that he may simply be influenced by day-to-day schizophrenic fluctuating prices of WTI/Brent Crude Oil and, possibly, the US 10-year treasury yield, so his ever-changing comments end up sounding schizophrenic, as well.
He'd be far better off if he just kept quiet...why alert your enemy to any of your plans and showcase your weaknesses in the process?
Isn't that what any smart military tactician/strategist would do...keep the element of surprise in their back pocket?
Besides, I don't believe that Iran's leaders are ready to negotiate in good faith, or ever will be, for all the reasons I've already outlined above.
PERIOD!
The following visual shows the levels of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve from 1983 to 2025.
This reserve has been much higher for most of those years before it was drastically drained during the Biden administration.
So, as at the end of 2025, it hadn't been topped up very much, should it need to be tapped during the present conflict/war between Israel/US and Iran to, potentially, reduce the price of oil and gasoline for American consumers.
