Market Forecast for 2017: SPX at 2400 by End of Year

On November 26th, I posted an article which outlined a hypothetical scenario of the S&P 500 Index reaching 2700 by the next U.S. Presidential election in November 2020.

I realize that this is only one of many possibilities that lie ahead for the SPX. However, given the aggressive economic, tax and fiscal agenda that President-elect Trump is currently promoting, it could, very well, materialize without too much resistance.




In keeping with the trajectory and velocity associated with that premise, I anticipate that the SPX could reach 2400 by the end of 2017, as shown on the Monthly chart below.

Monthly SPX

In last year's market outlook for 2016, I anticipated a rise of around 5-6% in equities, in general, in a run-up to this past November's Presidential election.

As of today's date of December 1st, you will see that the S&P 500 Index has gained 7.2% Year-to-date, as shown on the first graph below, while the Dow & Nasdaq Transport Indices and Russell 2000 Index have gained the most. The Nasdaq 100 Index has been the weakest.

The second graph shows the steep rise of the Dow & Nasdaq Transport Indices and Russell 2000 Index from the day after the election.

The third Year-to-date graph shows the percentages gained/lost for the 9 Major Sectors. 

Energy, Industrials, Financials and Materials have gained the most, while Consumer Staples has gained the least, and Healthcare has lost 4.16%, so far, this year. 

The last graph shows the steep rise of the Energy, Industrials, Financials and Materials sectors, and the decline of the Healthcare and  Consumer Staples sectors, since the election.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming that volatility will be kept low (which can be monitored in a manner as described in my post of November 26th), I'd project that equity markets, in general, will gain around 11% in 2017. That would place the S&P 500 Index at just above the 2400 level by the end of the year.

In that regard, I think it will be important that Financials, Large-Caps and Small-Caps stay strong and that market participants continue to favour the riskier sectors over their more defensive counterparts. As well, I'd like to see Technology firm up and gain strength to support such a bullish outlook.

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P.S.
By the way, for those who have pooh-poohed the validity or value of my forecasts, I would, respectfully, mention that forecasting is a useful tool for any serious trader/investor to implement in order to track, assess and learn from one's future successes and failures on a short, medium, and long-term basis.

And, they can read my prior years' forecasts at this link and determine their merit for themselves.

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P.S. -- SHOUT OUT TO INVESTING.COM...

As a contributing writer to Investing.com, I'd like to thank them for inviting me, once again, to participate and share my views and for publishing my article at this link on their site on December 28th, along with some of their esteemed contributors. It's a privilege to have contributed to their annual forecasting special during the past few years.



* UPDATE February 21, 2017: Since the beginning of this year, the SPX has already gained 5.65%, as shown on the following Percentages gained/lost graph of the U.S. Major Indices...a little over half-way to its projected 2017 percentage increase.

U.S. Major Indices -- Year-to-Date percentages gained

Market Forecast for 2016: Debt Bubbles and Volatility

As a contributing writer at Investing.com, I'm pleased to announce that they invited me, once again, to participate and share my views on where the markets may be headed for 2016. FYI, you can read what I wrote a year ago, as to what I projected for 2015, here.

I wrote the following article on December 7th: Market Forecast for 2016 -- Debt Bubbles and Volatility. It was published on their website on December 29th and may now be read at this link.

I'd also like to take this opportunity to thank the good folks at Investing.com for this invitation and for publishing my articles for past few years...it's been a privilege!

Good luck to all next year!

* For your easy reference, I've re-printed my article (originally written on December 7th), as follows...

What would cause retail and proprietary trading banks to tighten lending and begin to call in their loans?...possibly a major "accidental international incident" in the (internationally-crowded) Middle East, involving Russia and the West/Europe and/or Middle-Eastern countries? In such a scenario, we may see the price of Oil and Gold spike, contrasting with a major world-wide sell-off in bank stocks, in particular, along with equity stocks, in general. The markets in the U.S. could be especially hit hard, inasmuch as 68.4% of its GDP was comprised of personal consumption expenditures in Q3 of 2015 (it has averaged around 68% since 2008). The question becomes, would banks pass a stress test under those circumstances?

Until then, I think we'll see world Central Bankers continue to inflate equity markets and influence currencies by keeping interest rates low (or relatively low), thereby keeping Oil and Gold prices depressed -- which, then, keeps inflation low -- which, in their minds, could serve to validate their reasons for maintaining low interest rates and/or some form(s) of Quantitative Easing -- perpetuating this never-ending cycle of low economic growth, in which we seem to be stuck and, which, world governments seem to be incapable of, or unwilling to, address.

The question, then, becomes how much could markets advance next year, if a major international incident did not occur? Possibly around 5-6% -- a bit higher than this year's increase, which peaked (as of today's writing of this article...December 7th) at its (daily closing) high of 3.49% on May 21st -- in a potential run-up to the U.S. presidential election to be held on November 8th.

In that case, I'd keep an eye on the Technology Sector and Cyclicals to continue to outperform other sectors in the U.S. and to see if the Financials Sector begins to, substantially, firm up, along with the Industrials Sector. Otherwise, we may only see a repeat of 2015 and achieve around a 4% increase, or less, for 2016. Here's how they've performed, so far this year, as shown on the following Year-to-Date graph of the 9 Major Sectors...

Regarding the Financials Sector, the following three Daily ratio charts are worth noting...they show the strength/weakness of the:

• XLF (U.S. Financials ETF) compared to $SPX
• EUFN (European Financials ETF) compared to $STOX50
• GXC (Chinese Financials ETF) compared to $SSEC

Each chart shows that price is trading at or near major price resistance and their converging 50 and 200 MAs, and that all of these financial sectors are currently weaker than their country's counterpart Major Index...the last two at a considerable discount. Unless we see all three of these firm up and outpace their major indices, I doubt we'll see that 5-6% potential target increase achieved in U.S. equities.

In any event, as mentioned in my post of December 3rd, I'll re-iterate that, "I think 2016 will see greater volatility and much larger swings than we've seen this year." My comments and chart contained therein still apply (and are worth monitoring, along with the above charts and graph, over the coming weeks and months) regarding major resistance and support levels on the SPX:VIX ratio and equity market follow-through.

Markets Bottoming or Simply Short Covering?

Markets that have rallied the most (within their respective groups) on a percentage basis this past week (showing percentage-gained above the zero level, as opposed to most of them being in the percentage-lost category, on a Year-to-Date basis):

Dow Utilities
Portugal
Greece
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF)
China's Shanghai Index
Canada's TSX Index
Austrailia's AORD Index
Platinum
Oil
Silver
Lumber
U.S. $
Blackberry

So, the questions is, is this a serious attempt to bottom out, or simply some short-covering before the end of the year? Their performance next year may hold the key to overall global strength or weakness...particularly, Oil, the U.S. $, Emerging Markets, and China.

2015 Market Volatility is About to Get Wilder for 2016

I can't get too excited about possible market follow-through in any one direction on the S&P 500 Index unless and until price breaks and holds either above 150 or below 100 on the SPX:VIX Daily ratio chart below.

Currently, price is still in what I call the "Major Conflict Zone." Yes, I realize it's a huge range, but that's the way 2015 has gone. In my opinion, I think 2016 will see greater volatility and much larger swings than we've seen this year...hang onto your (Santa) hats, folks!

S&P 500 Index: Naughty or Nice?

The Momentum indicator has crossed below the zero level on the following Monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), hinting of further weakness ahead.

Major support sits around the 1700 level (confluence of the  50 MA and the 40% Fibonacci retracement level -- taken from the October 2011 lows).

Price on the following Monthly ratio chart of the SPX:VIX rallied at the end of today (Friday) to close just above the 100 level -- which is a major bull/bear line-in-the-sand level -- and, about which, I've written in numerous posts here.

The Momentum indicator is still well below the zero level, also hinting of further weakness ahead for the SPX.

Price on the following Daily chart of the World Market Index did eventually drop to re-test the 1600 level, which was mentioned as a possibility in my above-referenced posts. It, subsequently, bounced and has now fallen back and closed below what was near-term major price support (now major resistance) at 1700 and the 200 MA.

Unless we see price rally and the RSI climb back (and stay) above the 50 level, we could very well see this Index plunge back to 1600, or lower. As of now, all three indicators on this chart contain "SELL" signals...and, in fact, the RSI has now broken its recent uptrend, which, also, suggests further weakness to follow.

Unless we see major buying step in soon for the SPX and the World Market Index, equity markets may very well be in for a lump of coal for Xmas -- and, my 2015 Market Forecast may prove to be fairly accurate -- as of today, there are only six weeks until then.

These three charts should provide clues as to any strengthening or continued weakness in the coming days/weeks.

SPX Candle Review of the First Half of 2015

Q2 of 2015 closed today (Tuesday, June 30th). The following describes candle action, to date, in four timeframes -- namely, Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, and Weekly timeframes.

Each candle shown on the following chart of the SPX represents One Year.

The first half of this year is depicted by a "doji," as of the close on June 30th -- spelling "indecision" by this equity market. So far, the close is a mere 4.21 points higher than its open on January 2nd...not much of a gain in six months...no surprise, since price has been held back by the 161.8% External Fibonacci Retracement level (taken from the last major swing high in 2007 to the 2009 low), which is a typical major Fibonacci profit-taking level.

Each candle on this next chart of the SPX represents One Quarter of One Year.

Q1 of this year is depicted by a "spinning top" -- spelling "indecision" by this equity market. Q2 of this year is depicted by a "shooting star" with a slightly lower close than Q1 -- spelling a rejection of higher prices and a "bearish tilt" to this market.

FURTHER OBSERVATIONS...

Momentum has declined since 2014 on both charts -- confirming the lack of bullish confidence and commitment in this index. Candle action on both charts shows that major profit-taking has occurred in a considerable number of stocks in this index, so far, this year. In order to confirm that bears have taken firm control of this index going into Q4 of this year, we'll need to see a lower close on the Q3 candle (which begins tomorrow) on September 30th.

DRILLING DOWN...

However, looking at two shorter time frames:

• because of June's "bearish engulfing" candle, we'll need to see a lower close for the upcoming July candle on the following Monthly chart to signal further medium-term bear strength going into August, and
• because of last week's "bear harami" candle and a lower price below that close, so far, this week, we'll need to see a lower close by the end of this week on the following Weekly chart to confirm further short-term bear strength going into next week.

So, I'd watch for lower lows on this week's candle with a lower close on Friday, and, then, a lower low on July's candle with a lower close on July 31st -- also, a drop and hold of the Momentum indicator below the zero level on both charts (it has already dropped below zero on the Weekly timeframe) -- to warn of bearish control of this index going into August.

What's Ahead for the Rest of 2015 for the S&P 500 Index?

As shown on the daily chart of the SPX below, the 50-day MA has, for the most part, held as major support over the past 5 years. Until we see that level breached and held, the bulls will remain, essentially, in control of this market. Although, since the last round of QE stopped at the end of October 2014, this index has spent more time hugging, and circling tightly around, this MA than at any other time during these 5 years...signalling a weakening and, potentially, an end to this bull control.

Without the benefit of any further QE from the Fed, buyers will likely be reluctant to commit new money into this market, which is up 204.57% since the closing-low on March 3, 2009, as shown on the percentage-gained graph below. So, while the SPX continues to consolidate, we'll see the 50 and 200 MAs eventually merge until price, finally, breaks up or down. Once a bearish moving average Death Cross forms, we should see a significant drop in price. Until then, expect more of the same...and, my 2015 outlook for equities may very well come into fruition...at the moment, the SPX is up 3.01% year-to-date, as shown on the last percentage-gained graph...I had forecast an overall price increase of 4% for this year (it reached 3.49% on May 21st...the target high to be surpassed and held if bulls are to remain in control).

So, in a nutshell, I'd keep an eye on the 50 and 200 MAs and their spread (widening or decreasing), and the 4% target-price increase to gauge either weakness or strength for the SPX for the remainder of this year.

2014 World Market Wrap-Up

Happy New Year 2015!

My World Market Wrap-Up for 2013 can be found here.

The following charts and graphs show the trends and gains and losses made in a number of world markets for 2014. They will be shown without individual comment, initially, as you can see at a glance where major support and resistance are (50 MA in both cases), and where the outliers are (which ones made the most gains or losses for the year).

My Market Forecast for 2015

As a contributing writer at Investing.com, I'm pleased to announce that my article: Market Forecast for 2015 -- "Shift Into Offensive Sectors" -- may be read at the following link (published at their website on December 21, 2014):

http://www.investing.com/analysis/2015-market-outlook:-236448

I'd also like to take this opportunity to thank the good folks at Investing.com for asking me to participate and share my views, not only on this topic, but also in all my other articles that they've published over the past several years...it's been a privilege.

Good luck to all next year!

* For your easy reference, I've re-printed my article, as follows...

Strawberry Blonde: Shift Into 'Offensive' Sectors

As we approach the end of 2014, we can see from the below Year-to-date percentage gained/lost graph of the Major Sectors that markets have favoured the "defensive" sectors (Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities) plus Financials and Technology, while Housing has taken a back seat this year. It's my opinion that we may see a slight shift from, say, February until May of 2015, and a rotation into a more "offensive" approach (into Cyclicals, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Staples, and Housing) if (and only if) market participants are willing to assume more risk, and if Oil doesn't continue to slide down to or below $50.00. If we start to see more major selling in Oil for any sustained period of time, then I believe we'll likely see a major pullback occur in the equity markets...particularly, if the Fed hints at raising interest rates in mid-2015 or thereabouts.

Sector Performance December 31, 2013-December 12, 2014

Otherwise, if Oil stabilizes around 60.00-75.00, we may see a short rebound in the accumulation of the riskier sectors, until, say, May or June. This may involve some profit-taking in the above-noted "defensive" sectors, although, these may continue to outperform again, as they have this year. It really depends on the bottom-line forecasts and targets for overall percentage gains from equity markets to meet the needs of the major institutions and their clients for 2015.

However, I also believe that any further advance in U.S. equities beyond their current levels is dependent on further sustained strengthening of Japan's Nikkei Index, Europe, Brazil, China, Lumber, Copper, Housing, and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index. Likely, the US dollar will continue to strengthen if those markets (and those countries' economies) continue to show weakness. Links to my previous posts on these markets can be seen in my latest post here for further explanation.

Year-to-date, the SPX has gained 8.33%, as shown on the percentage gained/lost graph of the Major Indices, below. I think we'll be lucky to see half that increase in 2015 (say, a total of 4% for 2015), as I believe market volatility will increase and markets will consolidate in large trading ranges for longer periods of time in between moves, especially if we see a softening in the U.S. labour markets and wages.

Major Indices YTD Performance