SOFTBANK: Boom Or Bust?

In 2022, I posted several articles on SoftBank's (SFTBY) reckless business investments and failures, which can be found at this link.

I'm not convinced that their new AI partnership with "Stargate" members will prove to be any more profitable for them than those, which were not...or that their investment will be any more wise than the others, which were not.

Time will tell.

Source: ZeroHedge

This venture may be SoftBank's biggest black hole investment yet..."no clear goal, no timeline, and no real way to measure it" also means no transparency...buyer beware.

Source: Slope of Hope

Overlayed on the following monthly chart of SFTBY are a number of technical drawings depicting a long-range rising channel, a "chaos zone," and a "froth zone."

The current price is currently trading in the upper portion of the "froth zone" and is at the top of the channel.

Failure of price to rise and hold above the upper levels of the "froth zone" and channel at 35.00 could see some volatile swings in either direction within this zone, until it becomes clearer to investors as to the viability and sustainability of SoftBank's latest capital venture, described above.

* UPDATE February 12...

The following X post is not good news for SoftBank.

As I write this update at 1:18 pm ET, SFTBY is trading at 30.76, down from 33.90 since January 23.

It seems that others are also concerned over SoftBank's investment decisions.

* UPDATE July 22...

Unless this AI partnership can withstand decades of heavy financial losses before any profits more than cover them, if ever, I'd say that SoftBank's investment is on the way to BUST.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

"Friday's Frightening Facts": Inflation + Rate Hikes + Layoffs + Recession = Market Rally? 🤔

The bad news...😕

The "good" news...🤔

The "dash-for-trash" stock rally this week...

Source: ZeroHedge

META: Tech-Wreck's Leader Of The Pack

* See UPDATES below...

The following one-year charts and year-to-date percentages gained/lost graph show how much the 10 Technology stocks within the FNGU ETF have dropped during those periods.

META (Facebook) has lost the most, percentage-wise (70.51%), so far this year, followed by:

• NVDA (52.93%),
• NFLX (50.91),
• BIDU (47.21%),
• BABA (46.34%),
• AMZN (37.97%),
• TSLA (35.13%),
• GOOGL (33.53%),
• MSFT (29.41%), and 
• AAPL (11.93%).

FNGU has, itself, lost 87.05% this year.

Further weakness in META could drag these stocks lower...one to watch...along with the VXN:NDX ratio, as described in my post of October 18.

One-year Daily Charts

Year-to-date Percentages Gained/Lost graph

META has been running in circles...and is back in 2016 territory...

P.S. Is AMZN next? Note the parabolic rise...usually followed by a similar plunge.

* UPDATE Oct. 31...

Oh my! 😲

No wonder the Biden administration does NOT want Republicans taking control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections...who will, surely, add this to their growing list of intended investigations!

Source: ZeroHedge

Link to tweets

* UPDATE Nov. 1...

Some interesting statistics...(N.B. TWTR was delisted from the NYSE on November 28, since it was privatized, following its sale to Elon Musk)...

* UPDATE Nov. 4...

Who wouldn't like to a fly on the wall during these upcoming depositions?

Things should get "interesting" as Americans finally get the transparency, to which they are fully entitled.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Nov. 6...

With META reportedly poised to announce thousands of job layoffs sometime this week, it should be a wild week in markets with all eyes on Tuesday's midterm election results...isn't it interesting that they're waiting until after that to announce! 🤔

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Dec. 3...

More information on Elon Musk, his private purchase of Twitter, and his actions to make public Twitter's shocking suppression of free speech under its former executives and employees can be found here.

Chaos In China's Hang Seng Index

* See UPDATE below...

In my post of March 14, I described a scenario where a drop and hold below 20,000 on China's Hang Seng Index (HK50) could see it plunge to 16,000, or lower.

It, subsequently, swirled around that level, finally closing below at the end of August, as shown on the following monthly chart.

It has since plummeted and closed on Monday at 15,180.69...losing 6.3% on the day.

Sellers are in control, as downside volatility is increasing.

Should price remain below 20,000, it could easily drop to 12,000, or even lower to 8,000.

Monday was a bad day for all Chinese indices.

Source: StockQ.org

There are numerous major issues, with which China is grappling, including their property market, technology sector, zero COVID-19 policies, inflation, currency, support for Russia in their war with Ukraine, etc.,...none of which can be readily resolved...and none of which would be attractive to new foreign investment.

The following article describes some of those.

Source: ZeroHedge

N.B. Further China weakness may drag other world markets (or their financial institutions) lower, if they are already heavily invested, directly or indirectly, in any of those markets. 

So, bear in mind the remarks I made in my post of October 22.

* UPDATE Oct. 29...

The Hang Seng Index lost further ground this past week...opening below 16,000 and closing at 14,863.06.

It closed below the bottom of a long-term uptrending channel the prior week around the 16,500 level, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Any sustainable rally over the coming weeks will need to see it retake and hold above, firstly, 16,000, then 16,500...for a possible retest of 20,000. 

Otherwise, it could easily plunge to 12,000, or, even, 8,000.

Correspondingly, the Shanghai Index (SSEC) is caught in a narrow band within a large matrix (between 3,000 and 2,840), as shown on the following monthly chart.

It's had difficulty remaining above 3,550 since January 2007, which is a formidable long-term resistance level (and part of a significant future apex within this matrix...forming roughly in April 2029).

Failure to convincingly retake and hold above 3,000, could see it plunge to 2,500, or, even, 2,000.

For now, China weakness continues.

* UPDATE Nov. 27...

From the following report, it's clear that the China boom of the 1990s, then the 2000s, has been badly damaged, as shown on the monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index (HK50) below.

HK50 has failed to continue with the upward trajectory and pace of those decades, evident by the break and plunge below the longterm rising channel this year.

Furthermore, HK50 has struggled to remain and gather strength above 20,000 for the past 16 years.

I find it hard to believe that China will regain its former glory any time soon, if ever, (a) for the reasons cited in the report, (b) for the aforementioned charting reasons, as well as, (c) the fact that world countries are moving away from their previous reliance on cheap Chinese goods in favour of domestic product development and production.

As such, I anticipate that HK50 will be locked in a large sideways trading range for some time -- complete with volatile whipsaw price action -- between 12,000 and 20,000.

Source: ZeroHedge

INSANE MARKET RISK: Who's Ready For Round Two? 😵

In answer to my question above, I'd say anyone who loves risk in BTC/USD, ARKK, and FNGU...and, even, NDX.

But, if you want to protect what cash you have left, beware of their extreme volatility (proclivity toward parabolic whipsaw swings) and weakness!

The following weekly VXN:NDX ratio chart depicts the wild volatility swings over the past five years. 

I don't believe that capitulation has been achieved in the NDX, yet..not until the ratio hits 0.0060, or even higher toward 0.0120.

In this regard, watch for a bullish Golden Cross to form on the weekly MAs, the RSI to remain above 50.00, and the bullish crossovers to hold on the MACD and PMO, to confirm this possibility.