GOLD: The Next Parabolic Bubble?

We'll see.

If we do see a blow-off in price at some point soon, perhaps 3000 will hold as support, since that was a technical upside target within the confluence zone of two major long-term Fibonacci levels, as per my post of December 6, 2022.

GOLD finally hit 3000 on March 11 of this year, for a gain of 68% -- and has nearly reached 3500 -- as shown on the following monthly chart.

P.S. Price briefly pierced through 3500 on April 22 before dropping back below during intraday trading.

GOLD Monthly chart

* UPDATE October 24...

So, 3000 held...and GOLD has been on an upward tear ever since.

As noted on the following monthly chart, it nearly hit 4400, where there has been some profit taking.

Barring any major negative global influences, there is no overhead technical resistance to stop its climb towards 5000.

GOLD Monthly chart

* UPDATE January 26, 2026...

No bubble burst yet...GOLD is still on a tear as it crossed above 5000 late last week, as shown on the following monthly chart.

There is no overhead resistance to stop this unprecedented massive accumulation, so, we'll see if it reaches its next big round number of 6000.

The most recent support level is 4400, denoted on the following daily chart. If 5000 is broken and held to the downside, we may see a retest of 4400 at some point, or somewhere around 4700.

Otherwise, momentum is with the bulls.

GOLD Monthly chart

GOLD Daily chart

Selling Spreads Across U.S. Regional Banks

* See UPDATES below...

Further to numerous articles that I've recently posted describing the collapse of several Regional Banks, the number of shareholders divesting themselves of shares in other Regional Banks is accelerating.

The following graphic contains a list of the top 10 holdings of the Regional Banking ETF, KRE. All of them are down, so far, today.

Source: TipRanks

KRE has continued its plunge down to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic median price zone, as shown on the following monthly chart.

Inasmuch as it represents a snapshot of overall sentiment in the regional banks, I'd say the current state of these banks, in general, is pretty weak.

No one should be surprised that this particular sector of banks is weak, inasmuch as I warned about the state of U.S. banks, in general, in my post of April 10, 2021. As it happens at that time, KRE was close to making its all-time high of 78.81 (set in January of 2022), before it began to drop.

Even though its drop was initially choppy, it's been falling off a cliff since March of this year.

It's trading in a large sideways 'Chaos Zone.' It's had difficulty holding onto and increasing its gains made above 30.00 since January of 2013. It's also trading below its IPO opening price of 48.09 made in June of 2006...right before the 2007/08 Financial Crisis.

I anticipate that KRE will bounce around within that 'Chaos Zone' for some time. However, a drop and hold below 30.00 would signal much more serious consequences for the entire banking system, not only in the U.S., but globally, as well...as occurred in 2007/08/09.

N.B. Given these facts, it's odd that Fed Chairman J. Powell still insists that these banks are secure, when their representative ETF is plainly portraying great weakness...below that leading up to the 07/08 Financial Crisis! 

Surely one has to wonder if that contagion will spread to the larger banks and the 29 banks deemed too-big-to-fail by the Financial Stability Board of the G20 in 2011. Note that Credit Suisse did, subsequently, fail, as described in my recent posts.

Today's ZeroHedge article has some answers in that regard.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE May 5...

And...(lots of) food for thought...(HINT: keep your money safe!)...

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

(Editor's Note: SATIRE 😏)

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE May 6...

"It's spooky. Thousands of banks are underwater.

Let's not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the US banking system is potentially insolvent."

Source: ZeroHedge

De-Dollarization of U.S.$?

* See UPDATES below...

Several articles have been written recently about the possible de-dollarization of the U.S. Dollar, as shown below.

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

While I'm not an expert on the matter to say "Yay" or "Nay," I can provide the following monthly charts of the U.S. Dollar (DX) and Gold (GC).

The charts show an inverse correlation to each other. Furthermore, their major resistance and support levels are depicted thereon...as noted below:

• DX: 107.00, 100.00, and 90.00
• GC: 2000, 1800, 1600 and 1400

Very simply, keep an eye on whether or not DX is able to hold above the 100.00 level. If not, we could see it re-test 90.00, or lower, if GC holds above 2000 and gathers momentum. However, GC is nearing a bearish triple-top formation, so it may face stiff resistance around its prior high of 2089.20 set in August 2020. If it spikes through that level, with sustained force, we could see buyers pile into Gold and sell the Dollar, especially if traders/investors view the long-term Gold formation as a bullish cup & handle pattern.

BUT, I think we'd need to see some sort of major global catalyst occur to produce such a buying and selling frenzy. Exactly what that would be remains to be seen.

However, it's worth monitoring their movements over the coming weeks for hints of sustained rising volatility and potential chaos in these and other world markets (equities, ETFs, bonds, currencies, commodities, and crypto currencies).

N.B. For a further detailed analysis that I recently published on Gold, please refer to my post of December 6, 2022, wherein I outlined a technical case to be made for Gold to reach $3000, in accordance with one of Saxo Bank's "Outrageous Predictions for 2023."

* UPDATE April 20...

Countries dumping the U.S. Dollar...

Source: ZeroHedge

So, will we see China's Yuan become the dominant international reserve currency, if the following global GDP projection materializes?

* UPDATE April 22...

As U.S. debt grows and the U.S. Dollar weakens, the value of Gold should increase over time...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE April 24...

As a hedge against U.S. sanctions, many foreign countries are buying Gold...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE APRIL 25...

In emerging markets, Gold is surpassing the U.S. Dollar, as a safe haven...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE April 28...

More on de-dollarization...

Source: ZeroHedge

Saxo's 10 Outrageous Predictions For 2023: Is $3,000 Gold Possible?

* See UPDATES below...

The following ZeroHedge article, pertaining to Saxo Bank's 10 Outrageous Predictions For 2023, is interesting.

Source: ZeroHedge

My analysis will focus on on their prediction of Gold (GC) at 3,000 in 2023.

Technically, a target zone of between 2,990.94 and 3,049.12 exists.

It is formed by a long-term External 2.236% Fibonacci level at 2,990.94 and a long-term 1.382% Fibonacci Extension level at 3,049.12, as shown on the following monthly chart of GC.

As I'm writing this on Tuesday, the current price is 1,783.15. That's shy of 1,216.85 points yet to be gained by the end of 2023 (a gain of 68%)...or approximately 100 points per month.

So, while that would be an unprecedented move for Gold in one year, 3,000 is within the Fibonacci target price zone...and is technically possible. 

I'll leave the odds of that happening to the market makers. 👀

On a shorter-term timeframe, keep an eye on the following daily GOLD:GVZ ratio chart (Gold versus Volatility).

In general, look for:

• a bullish Golden Cross to re-form on the 50/200 MAs, 
• the RSI  to remain above the 50.00 level, 
• the MACD and PMO indicators to remain above Zero, and
• the price to hold above 100.00, then break and hold above the 120.00, 130.00, and 160.00 resistance levels, respectively,

to confirm such a bullish scenario.

And then...there's this little nugget hiding in the shadows...ready to create havoc in financial markets...

Link to tweet

Link to Twitter thread

Link to Twitter thread 

(for the following tweets pertaining

to Zoltan Pozsar's article)

 UPDATE Dec. 7...

Central Banks increased their puchases of Gold...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

It seems that one of the reasons behind the gold-buying spree is that this precious metal, supposedly, represents an alternative to the strong US Dollar in purchasing power, especially in the face of high inflation and a looming global recession...

Source: ZeroHedge

For now, the US Dollar (DX) may be headed back to the rising channel's 'mean' and long-term price support at 100, as shown on the following monthly chart.

The channel's 'zone of resistance and support' is currently between 108 and 93.

A rally and hold above 108 may rapidly decelerate the pace of gold-buying, whereas a hold above 93 may simply spur its acquisition. I expect that the Dollar will bounce around within that zone for awhile...two price levels to watch in the coming weeks and months.

So...$3,000 Gold in 2023?...

😏 

* UPDATE March 13, 2025...

Two years and three months later, GOLD finally hit 3,000...a gain of 68% since this target was floated as a possibility (for 2023).

So, not only was it possible, except for the timing, it was technically probable, given my Fibonacci analysis, etc., as detailed above.

Source: ZeroHedge