I last wrote about the world's "Doomsday Clock" on March 14, 2022. At that time, it was 100 seconds to midnight.
In it, I asked how China's President Xi would react to Russia's war on Ukraine...and to which country China would lend its support...inasmuch as Xi's legacy is at stake if he chooses unwisely.
So far, he seems to be backing Russia...jeopardizing his legacy in the process.
So, make the most of your next 90 seconds, as they may just be your last...repeat if necessary! 😏
* See UPDATES below...
In my post of March 2 regarding WTI Crude Oil, I mentioned that my previous price Targets 1 and 2 (100.00 and 111.00-112.00), which I'd identified in my prior post of February 24, had been hit...and that Target 3 (147.27) still remained intact.
However, just days later, price hit a high of 130.50 on March 7...not quite tagging Target 3, but coming fairly close...before chopping around that level, then beginning a drop to current levels, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Note that an extreme spike formed by the end of March on the ATR indicator...hinting that a price turnaround may be imminent. As I did in my March post, I've shown the ATR with an input value of one period to clearly illustrate that such a spike occurred that month.
Price is stuck, again, within, what I've dubbed a 'Chaos Zone,' in between 80.00 and 100.00.
Previous attempted breakouts above this zone have been short-lived, since January 2008. In fact, those breakouts have all been followed by a large drop to retest long-term major support at 40.00.
Whether price drops to 40.00 any time soon, is anyone's guess. If it does, watch to see if the ATR forms another extreme spike to signal a potential price reversal.
However, if such a spike occurs at any price above that level on the monthly timeframe, a bounce may soon follow...possibly to tag or surpass Target 3 (147.27).
So, keep an eye on the ATR for clues in this regard.
* UPDATE Aug. 17...
Although world markets may be headed toward a recession, that may not negatively impact demand and the price of oil, as described in the following article.
* UPDATE Aug. 21...
However, the following court win for oil and gas exploration and production on U.S. federal lands may eventually bring down the price of Crude Oil and Gas whenever the producers in those states begin their operations...provided that Biden's EPA regulations aren't too cost-prohibitive and onerous at that time.
* See UPDATES below...
Selling has acceletated to an all-time extreme level -- even exceeding that which occurred during the 2008/09 financial crisis -- in China's Hang Seng Futures Index (HK50), which has plunged below a major support level of 20,000 in Sunday night's wild trading, as shown on the following monthly chart (the price is still dropping as I write this post).
This follows my post of March 7, which warned of possible impending weakness in China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) due to diverging extreme weakness in its Financials ETF, GXC.
Failure to recapture and hold above 20,000 could see a swift plunge to 16,000, or lower.
The following article describes 11 major crises that China is facing, which may have contributed to its 4.3%+ drop, so far, from Friday's close.
N.B. The Hang Seng Index closed at 19,531.66 on Monday for a loss of 5.0% from Friday. As well, China's Hang Seng Tech Index lost 11%, the most ever...the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index lost 7.2%, the most since November 2008...and the Golden Dragon China Index lost 13%, for a two-day loss of nearly 30%...see this ZeroHedge report for details.
CONCLUSIONS
N.B. The nuclear "Doomsday Clock" is ticking...and is now at "100 seconds to midnight," as noted in the following report...thereby, making President Xi's decisions that much more critical and urgent.
* UPDATE March 15...
Selling accelerated in overnight trading in China, as shown on the following monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index (HK50). It closed at 18,415.08 and lost another 5.72%. It was another bloodbath in Chinese major indices, as shown in the following table.
I've shown the chart in an "area" format to illustrate that any gains made since November 2006 have never held, to date...hinting that there has been something systemically wrong in China and its economy since then -- in the months leading up to the 2008/09 financial crisis and global market crash, and ever since -- and signalling that, what was wrong/broken, then, has never been fixed.
SO, if President Xi thinks that, by hitching up China's wagon to Putin's horse will make that situation any better, then I've got a bridge to sell him! 😕
More information on China's markets can be found in the following ZeroHedge article...it's not pretty.
* UPDATE July 18...
More trouble ahead for China...this time, it's their housing market...
* UPDATE July 25...
With investors pulling their money out of China on a scale second in size to the COVID crash, there is a "threat of a further disintegration of their financial system should their housing crash escalate further"...
* UPDATE July 31...
Tensions are heating up between the U.S. and China to dangerous levels...adding to an already-risky foreign investment environment in China...
* UPDATE August 6...
Oh, look...a military distraction is being conducted by China, while its Shanghai Index (SSEC) and Financial ETF (GXC) are poised to plunge below near-term fragile support, as shown on the monthly charts below.
The SSEC has had difficulty holding above 2500 since November 2006. Near-term support sits at 3000, while longer-term major support lies at 2000.
Near-term support for GXC sits at 80.00, while longer-term major support lies at 60.00.
A drop and hold below 3000 for the SSEC and 80.00 for GXC could send China's markets plummeting in short order.
* UPDATE Aug. 8...
The growing global threats posed by China -- militarily, economically, financially, ecologically, environmentally, human rights abuses, global supply chain disruptions/blockades, etc. -- are described and discussed in detail in the following Life, Liberty & Levin video...
N.B. Further UPDATES can be found here.
Following the bottoming of the 2008/09 U.S. financial crisis in March of 2009, the Consumer Staples ETF, XLP, began a years-long rally, along with the Commodities and Agricultural ETFs, DBC and DBA, respectively, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.
While XLP has been on a slow, steady climb ever since, DBC and DBA began to diverge in a volatile and whippy descent in early 2011 and finally bottomed around late Q1 to early Q2 of 2020...then, reversed shortly after the WHO declared the COVID-19 virus a pandemic in March 2020).
DBC and DBA have been in an ever-steepening rally, ever since...likely accelerated most recently by Russia's declaration of war against and invasion of Ukraine.
As long as uncertainty exists around this war, as well as the after-effects of COVID, which have contributed to a spike in inflation, labour shortages, and supply-chain problems, I'd posit that all three ETFs will continue to rise.
However, a divergence in one or more may signal, either a pause and consolidation in these sectors for a period of time, or a reversal...so keep an eye on them for directional clues and trend strength, along with the information contained in my post of February 27 pertaining to U.S. Major Sectors and the SPX.
Presented without comment...
Conversely, look what's in the green in the futures markets, today...
ZeroHedge's summary of today's market action is worth a read...(HINT: bear markets everywhere)...
China's Financials ETF, GXC, has plunged dramatically since January of 2021, in contrast to China's Shanghai Index, SSEC, which is teetering on the brink of a downdraft, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.
Extreme volatility began in GXC in March of 2020, relative to the SSEC, when the WHO declared COVID-19 a "pandemic" (March 11)...following its declaration of the virus as a "public health emergency of international concern" on January 30.
This dramatic and volatile trend reversal in China's financial sector may signal forthcoming weakness and produce problems, in the near term, and, possibly in the long run, for its equity sector, namely the Shanghai Index.
By the way, my post of September 15, 2021 described financial weakness in GXC pertaining to China's second-largest property developer, Evergrande Group (and its major debt obligations and defaults)...thereby, possibly, triggering a negative event in China's Shanghai Index, and, even, other world markets.
Combine those issues with
Keep an eye on this comparison for clues on a weakening SSEC, as well as the above global issues.
P.S. More information and updates on Chinese markets can be found here.
Take a look at the following daily and weekly comparison charts of the SPX with Germany's DAX, and judge for yourself.
They've traded, essentially, in lock-step for many years...until the last few days, when the bottom has fallen out from under the DAX, dropping it below major support.
For further clues on market direction and price targets on the SPX, see my post of February 21 and important UPDATE of February 23.
Further to my post of February 24, WTI Crude Oil took out price Target 2 (111.00-112.00) today, after blowing through Target 1 (100.00) yesterday.
It's currently trading above that level at 113.44, and rising, as I write this at 8:30 pm ET, as shown on the monthly chart below.
As I described in the above post, the "path of least resistance" is up (in fact, resistance is extremely thin above Target 2, as depicted on the TPO Profile of that chart), and Target 3 (147.27) is now in the crosshairs (to retest its prior all-time high).
Exactly how soon that may be hit remains to be seen, but the Buyers remain fully in control on this timeframe, as shown on the Balance of Power indicator.
Furthermore, until we see an extreme spike made on both the Momentum and ATR indicators, as well as the Balance of Power, Oil may not have topped out yet. (By the way, I've shown the input value of the ATR as one period to illustrate this more clearly...the other two indicators are shown in their default mode).
So, we may see Target 3 hit sometime this month...possibly sooner, rather than later.
* See UPDATES below...
As long as the US and Germany (and any other country) continue to buy oil and gas from Russia, they are partially funding President Putin's war against Ukraine, are they not?
President Biden needs to reverse his executive orders that:
which, thereby, placed the US in a much weakened position with respect to energy and national security concerns...and a weakened position from which to respond to global crises, such as Ukraine and Afghanistan.
Until he does, he will have to continue to buy the excess oil and petroleum products the US currently needs from Russia...to fuel America's ever-increasing need for viable energy...and will continue to finance Putin's brutal war.
Biden's agenda and policies that he's enacted since he took office in January 2021 have contributed to and triggered numerous economic/inflationary and international and national security crises.
If he continues with these policies, including buying Russian oil, etc., to the exclusion of unleashing oil and gas production in America, or, even worse, making a deal to buy it from the brutal terrorist regime of IRAN, with whom he's already negotiating, he can add the demise of Ukraine to his growing list of failures...all under the guise of promoting so-called "green energy policies" to, purportedly, combat "climate change"...at the expense of America's own dependable and readily-available supply of oil and gas and at the expense of Americans and their pocketbook (inflation).
Why is the Biden administration ready to make deals with even more "Devils?" 😕
N.B. On that point, WHAT will Biden give away to Russia and Iran in exchange for trying to sign a new nuclear deal with Iran, as may be imminent, according to the following article?
WHY is he so anxious to get back into that deal? He hasn't explained that to to the American people.
WHY is he so anxious to buy Iranian oil, but not allow U.S. producers to ramp up their domestic production?
IF Russia's oil is sanctioned by the U.S., will Russia circumvent that by selling it to Iran, then Iran sell it onward to the U.S.?
WHY is Biden weakening America's energy sector with these actions?
WHY is no one asking him these questions?
N.B. So, IF Biden continues to "lead from behind," it's doubtful we'll see the U.S. ban Russian oil imports, unless Europe does, as well.
"Biden's own 'green deal' lunacy"...
By the way, President Biden really has no reason to go before Congress and the American people tomorrow, during his State of the Union Address, to tout any of his policies that he's unleashed over the past year as being successful...in fact, quite the opposite is true.
So, how does any of this make sense and lead to a sovereign Ukraine, especially since President Zelensky, reportedly, just filled out an application for membership in the EU?
German, EU, and US leaders need to explain how it makes sense...and why they are, incidentally, financing this Russian invasion of Ukraine...which includes acts of terrorism and war crimes against civilians and children.
* UPDATE March 1...
It seems that Americans do NOT approve of the job that President Biden has done over the past year. His approval rating is now down at 37%.
It's no wonder, as his left-leaning socialist policies are NOT popular and he was NOT elected with a clear majority mandate in Congress to implement them.
It's time for him to drastically change course to a more sensible and centrist agenda that could garner bi-partisan approval and eliminate the harsh divisiveness and chaos that he's caused among the population.
Talk about devastating timing with the release of this report right before President Biden's SOTU Address tonight...stagflation rears its ugly head.
How will Biden explain that to Americans, while still pushing his massively-inflationary spending and energy-crippling agenda!
Also, the EU has just voted "YES" to accept President Zelensky's membership application to join the European Union.
* UPDATE March 2...
President Biden, in his SOTU Address last night, touted the same old tired, far-left socialist agenda and spending priorities.
His speech lacked any acknowledgement of reality relative to the economy and the impacts of rampant inflation, triggered by his policies, as described above.
It lacked any fixes for the current state of affairs, and was bereft of any future-oriented imaginative and prescriptive ideas to sustainably and responsibly grow the economy and ramp up international and national security measures.
I doubt whether his party will be able to convince Americans that their problems are being properly addressed by this administration, so I think the GOP will retake control of both the House and Senate in the November mid-term elections.
As I said, the majority of Americans are NOT in favour of his agenda.
It seems that Mr. Biden is NOT listening...or simply doesn't care...or both.
* UPDATE March 5...
Even electric car-maker, Elon Musk, gets it...why doesn't Joe Biden?
If the Supreme Court rules against Biden, he may not have a choice but to accept the reality around sound, prudent, and pragmatic energy policies...and pivot away from his crippling and dogmatic "green" regulations.
* UPDATE March 6...
The following article provides a summary of all Russia sanctions and developments, to date...bookmark this link to check back for further updates...
