Stalled Markets, Baby Boomers, and Accelerating Information

BABY BOOMERS & THE INFORMATION AGE

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines a Baby Boomer as a member of the generation born between 1946 and 1964. If the average age of Baby Boomers is 65 years, then 1953 would be an important year for them. A lot of stuff happened that year, including the end of the Korean War.

Read more at ThePeopleHistory.com

At the age of 65, a person is also considered a senior citizen. With that "badge of honour" comes a whole host of pros and cons. Baby Boomers' young adult lives were much more simple without distraction of home computers, cell phones and social media platforms. This kind of simple life meant that one could live in a more "linear-thinking" kind of mode, where people could more easily define their goals and create strategies and tactics on how they could be achieved at an early age, then work towards those as they aged.

The rapid onset of technology, nano-technology, nuclearization, globalization, pandemics, medical advances and cures, fluctuating climates, and mass human migration that we've seen emerge since the Sixties has brought with it a lot of rising challenges related to the adaption of social, economic, cultural, religious, racial and political differences and discord...as well as an oversaturation of information that's been thrown at us on an ever-accelerating pace.

I'm not sure that the average human brain has kept pace with, and has a full grasp of, all that has occurred during those years and what it will mean for younger generations going forward.

No doubt, Baby Boomers have been and are in the process of retiring and downsizing their homes and possessions. Priorities have changed from work-related and family-raising activities, to ones more focused on health, pensions, friends, and comfort, as well as drawing down their investments for such purposes.

Younger generations are debt-ridden and information-overloaded. They will be saddled with the problems of yesterday, today and tomorrow at an ever-increasing pace and are required to think in a more "lateral" fashion...not an easy task, as they'll need to keep an open mind and a keen eye open. Their disposable income may not be sufficient to plough into the stock markets.

We're now living in that hand-off period between Baby Boomers and these younger people as they begin to step into those roles. What that transition period means for the markets is unknown at the moment...at least I don't have a handle on that aspect (no crystal ball, darn it).

We may see a period of instability or chaos occur on a world-wide basis at some point where indecision becomes the norm for awhile, until new order and direction can evolve...one where markets stall and whipsaw for some time.

WHAT THAT MEANS FOR CURRENT EQUITY MARKETS

In the meantime, the technical indicators on the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) can be monitored to gauge the strength or weakness of equities.

While the parabolic stop & reverse (SAR), momentum (MOM) and relative vigor index (RVGI) indicators are displayed with their default input values, I've shown the average true range (ATR) input value as 1 month.

In this regard, my observations are:

• The SAR has flipped from a buy to a sell signal.
• The RVGI has formed a bearish crossover and is accelerating to the downside.
• The MOM has broken its recent uptrend from the beginning of 2016 and is accelerating to the downside.
• The ATR registered its second-highest reading in history during February of this year...second only to the one made in October 2008 during the financial crisis.

These tell me that markets have reached a level of saturation and indecision...something I've written about in more detail all year in a variety of articles on a variety of markets. And, these technical indicators are additional tools to the ones I've mentioned that can be used to monitor equity strength/weakness/volatility going forward.

Whether this pause reflects, or is the beginning of, what I posited above regarding the generational hand-off is anybody's guess...but it may be...keep an open mind, eyes open and think laterally. 

As a Baby Boomer, myself, I intend to do just that, to the best of my abilities.

The Bubble No One Talks About

What is it?  The MEDIA BUBBLE!

Seriously, who has time to check out all available sources of news these days? And, where do you start? Who do you trust for fair and accurate information?

Middle-class working folks are too busy trying to earn a living and create a healthy and balanced life for their families to worry about who is saying what and try to figure out who's relaying true facts.

Reality tells me that the only ones who wade through endless scores of tabloid stories are those who work in the media industry.

Like the Baby Boomers who are busy downsizing and simplifying their lives to determine what really matters, it's time the media did the same.

As a boomer myself, I've learned that, with age, comes a realization that focusing on what's truly important to me, in the short term (today) and longer term (the big picture), and trusting my own instincts, helps me ensure that decisions I make are in alignment with my intentions and values and how well I'm actually honouring those values. And, to help me downsize (physically, emotionally, socially and psychologically), it's been very important to accept, appreciate, learn from, and let go of the past, and then move forward with faith in my abilities to handle what's in front of me...that's where my energies are optimally and most valuably utilized.

By the way, this approach can be very helpful in trading the markets, as well...successfully and confidently moving from one completed trade to the next new one.

Admittedly, there are, however, some bubbles that are rather enjoyable...






* UPDATE July 29, 2019...

It looks like the liberal media has not moved on from, or even accepted, the results of the 2016 Presidential election. The two most overused words since then have been "racist" and "impeachment"...referring, of course, to President Trump.

And, it hasn't changed since the recent finalization of the Special Counsel investigation into Russian meddling and purported Trump-Russia collusion, which showed the absence of any crime by Trump or anyone associated with his campaign. In fact, the media has stepped up their attacks on the President and have increased their use of those two words since then, and you'd think he had committed a crime(s).

Aren't Americans getting tired of such inflammatory, patently biased and divisive rhetoric? When will the media (journalists) return to simply reporting facts and actual news, without delivering it with a politically-biased slant or interjecting their own views and demands? They sound more like lobbyists and activists instead of self-proclaimed journalists.

* UPDATE Aug. 22, 2022...

Perhaps liberal media outlets like CNN are finally getting the message...we'll see...

Source: ZeroHedge

"World Population Aging: Clocks Illustrate Growth in Population Under Age 5 and Over Age 65"

Wonder no more as to why global economic conditions are slowing down...this article, courtesy of
Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau, offers an excellent explanation [which re-enforces what I've previously said about Baby Boomers (downsizing) here and here]...

"World Population Aging: Clocks Illustrate Growth in Population Under Age 5 and Over Age 65"

I think the U.S. Fed's mandate to tie a 2% inflation target to their timing of a rise in interest rates is outdated and too high and needs to be seriously re-visited, in view of these facts.

It's Different This Time...But Not for the Reasons I've Heard

The argument that I've heard repeated ad nauseam as a reason why stocks should simply go up "until the Fed takes the punch bowl away" (even at current market all-time highs) has been, "It's different this time." I even heard a comparison today that we're in a market environment like the mid-90s.

I'd just take a minute to remind traders that Baby Boomers, who were heavily into acquiring all kinds of assets/products/services/loans for themselves and their growing children/teenagers in the 90s, are now facing retirement and are no longer "spending like there's no tomorrow" on the same kind of stuff. To illustrate this point, I'd direct you to my post of July 17, 2011.

We also know now that it's been difficult for young people to get jobs, in spite of (what appears to be) a lowering of the unemployment rate since 2011.

Just once, I'd like to see a solid, quantifiable presentation of what it is (and how much) that consumers are now buying, and who those consumers are, that would support such "It's different this time" theme.

The only reason that it's different this time is the one I've presented above. And it does not support the theory that markets should keep going up because the "Fed has your back." If that's the case, and based on my earlier post today (Tuesday), then markets would be operating on a casino-like mentality, not on sound economic, fundamental, and technical reasons. And, how long can that last?

Stuff I'm buying...a.k.a. My Critical Mass...

As a Baby Boomer, I have to confess that my buying habits have changed radically over the years. When I was younger and worked as a city planner I had to dress professionally...that meant smart suits, matching shoes and handbags, nice jewelry, nice makeup, nice teeth, nice car...blah...blah...blah. In short, I had to have the "latest everything."

Now that I'm older and work from home on my computer (I can't afford to retire), my priorities have changed. I have a treadmill, a bicycle (for "fun"), and pull-on knee supports to ease my arthritic pain when I'm walking on my treadmill...I take naturopathic supplements to keep me healthy...I get my eyes examined once a year and keep my eyeglasses up-to-date...I have to keep my computer and monitors up-to-date and running at top speed to handle my daytrading activities properly (that also means paying an arm and a leg for top download speed for my internet service)...I use a tooth re-mineralizing product to strengthen and rejuvenate my teeth...I drive a 10-year old car...I wear comfortable shoes, instead of the 3" heals I used to wear...my jeans aren't so tight that I can actually sit down and breathe at the same time...I have a comfortable bed and pillow that give me great support while I sleep...I have to make sure that my health care payments are up-to-date...I have a cat to look after (he's my "child")...I've been visiting a Naturopathic Doctor twice a month for the past 3 years to have my misaligned spine straightened (for pain relief and to help me breathe better -- I'm very happy to say that my spine is almost straight now, I hardly have any pain for the first time in about 35 years, and I can breathe much better). All of these things are critical and life-savers to me (especially the jeans).

Some people will relate to what I'm saying...others will not because they're too young. My point to all of this is my other Baby Boomer friends are not buying the frills and the "latest" and "greatest" stuff that they used to when they were younger...and they're certainly not going to the bank to ask for credit for that kind of stuff. They're busy down-sizing...selling their large family homes for something smaller and having garage sales...taking some time out to concentrate on their health that has been neglected (and abused in some cases) over the years.

The latest U.S. Census Bureau brief on data from the 2010 Census shows Baby Boomers are increasing faster than younger populations. Between 2000 and 2010, the 45 to 64 population grew 31.5% to 81.5 million, and now makes up 26.4% of the total U.S. population. Each year more than 3.5 million Boomers turn 55. Their swelling numbers predict that, by 2012, America's 50 and older population will reach 100 million. And, according to the UN Population Division, 1 in 5 people are expected to be 65 or older by 2035.

So, I really don't care what the latest "gadget" is or who's wearing what. If it really does make me feel better and I really do need it, and if it doesn't break my piggy bank, I'll buy it = My Critical Mass! My favorite store these days is the Dollar Store...I love a bargain! Perhaps Mr. Bernanke should take heed of what the priorities are of the Boomers and stop wondering why people aren't borrowing like they used to and why things are "slowing down"...we're getting older and don't need or want all that stuff anymore!

Anyway, that's my 2 cents' worth on the subject. Now if I can just remember where I left my keys...