DJT: Middle East Naivety

* See UPDATES below...

Either President Trump is very naive about 'fabricated reports' from the Middle East regarding Iran's so-called willingness to make a deal with the US, or he is simply playing games and stalling the inevitable scenario...further military action to finish off the Iranian regime's reign of terror against its citizens and other countries in the Middle East and around the world.

I suspect he will have to make a decision one way or another very soon. People are growing weary of all the shenanigans (BS) on both sides. All talk and no action won't be tolerated by the price-gouged (global) public much longer.

Trump can either set the terms in the Free-World's favour and act on them, or Iran will do it their way. 

He has a choice...either make it or surrender it.

Source: ZeroHedge

By the way, Iran needs to 'man up' and negotiate directly (face to face) with US representatives if they're serious about striking a deal with them...not through a third party, from which unreliable reports (lies) emanate. 

Failure to do so will never produce a deal...only a prolonged and destructive war.

UPDATE:

Furthermore, a 60-day tentative extension of a ceasefire is NOT a bona fide permanent peace agreement...just more delay and uncertainty on the issue of removing the enriched uranium from Iran and the permanent dismantling of their nuclear program, which remains a major global threat to international security.

Looks like President Trump has lost sight of that issue (one of his major goals) and is surrendering that matter to Iran by allegedly agreeing to watered-down piecemeal arrangements...which may include the early release of some seized Iranian funds in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That would be a loss for the US and a win for Iran, because it was already open before the war and billions of dollars were frozen decades before this current conflict under extensive US sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Plus, Iran could then use the monies to buy/build more drones and missiles to replenish their depleted stockpiles...rendering Trump's bombings, to date, all for naught...while still in possession of their enriched nuclear materials.

Both the US and Iran need to 'man up' and negotiate face to face to settle all issues at once, rather than through a third party...and cut the drip, drip BS...people are fed up with it all!

Incidentally, other Western world countries need to 'man up' and offer support to the US to ensure that it is successful in these negotiations, inasmuch as their prior involvement in the now-defunct JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) provided significant mutual reinforcements and assistance to each other in enforcing a unified policy to constrain Iran's nuclear program. 

So far, they've taken a hands-off approach to this situation.

Since it was in their interest then, why wouldn't it be now?

UPDATE:

From this latest report, it looks like the only thing that has been accomplished by the ceasefire, so far, has been the ability of Iran to restore and reopen 20 airports that were damaged in this war. 

Plus, Iran is still in possession of its enriched nuclear materials and nuclear facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.

So, where's the upside to the US in this ceasefire? 🤔

HINT...

A "creative visionary" would find a way to streamline, amalgamate all the moving parts of this conflict (including goals and impediments), and accelerate the process of achieving global economic, financial and military security/stability...in part, by turning the impediments into common goals for all parties.

And, a "creative opportunist" would find a way to capitalize on this process.

UPDATE:

So far, I haven't seen any evidence of either party possessing such creative thinking and negotiating abilities in order to reach and sign a final agreement that contains common goals, as backed up here and here.

Frankly, I don't believe that terrorists have the capacity or desire to seek any common goals with the Western world and the Middle East...as repeatedly demonstrated by Iran's combative rhetoric and actions for the past 46 years under the dictatorship of the Ayatollah and his henchmen.

I predict that the situation will get much worse right through the midterm elections in November, especially as low and middle-income Americans (living paycheque to paycheque) continue to suffer economically and will likely voice their concerns in the way they vote.

Billionaires, such as the President, and long-term investors/market makers may not care how long this drags out, or be worried about the midterm elections, but average Americans do/are.

And, who has the appetite to participate in Trump's 250th July 4th celebrations under these uncertain and unappealing conditions? 👀

UPDATE:

WTF has Trump been smoking! 

He's getting more unbelievable by the day with his ridiculous vacillatory, contradictory, hyped-up comments. 

His 'so-called' negotiating tactics are not clever...just plain stupid, clueless, overblown, bizarre and irritating.

Plus, his tone towards Iran seems to have softened since his visit with President Xi in China in mid-May...case in point. Coincidence?

It's becoming clearer that a decent deal for the US regarding Iran will not be forthcoming.

PERIOD!

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

UPDATE:

An alleged Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, as described in this article, is not the same as a FINAL deal.

The so-called negotiations of items and terms outlined in an MoU (and, by extension, the conflict) will drag on forever...case in point here and here (39 'deals' announced by DJT, so far 🫤).

Even Europe is forecasting further uncertainty ahead, as the ECB has just raised interest rates by 0.25% due to rising inflation.

Buckle up!

P.S. As of June 19th, a signed copy of the MoU containing the entire text has NOT been released to the public on the White House website...(allegedly signed by the Presidents of the US and Iran this week).

What's the big secret? 🤔

In any event, I repeat..."It's becoming clearer that a decent deal for the US regarding Iran will not be forthcoming."

PERIOD!

CREDIT SUISSE BANK: From Bad To Worse

My post of November 4, 2011 contained a list of 29 banks that were deemed "Too Big To Fail" by the Financial Stability Board of the G20.

One of those banks was Switzerland's Credit Suisse Bank (CS). Another was Germany's Deutsche Bank (DB).

I last wrote about both of these banks in my post of October 3, 2022.

Their movements were identical from September 2001, and both were trading at or near their lifetimes lows...just above zero. They had never recovered from the fall from their lifetimes highs set in April 2007...right before the 2008/09 financial crisis.

My article contained a lot of information detailing their weaknesses, which were reflective of their credit risk in the face of an impending global recession.

Today, Credit Suisse is back in the news, as it has made a new lifetime low of 1.78, so far, today. Deutsche Bank also gapped down to a low of 10.06, thus far. Sellers are still firmly in control of CS, and have been for most of the time since its high of 73.01 made in April 2007, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.

U.S. and European markets are down considerably today, on this news.

Source: StockQ.org

(World Markets at 2:15 pm ET)

The following ZeroHedge articles detail the issues facing, not only Credit Suisse, but "the entire European banking sector (stock and credit) [which] is cratering," at the moment.

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

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Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

So, will we see a bank bailout from the Swiss National Bank (Swiss Central Bank), or other entity...for CS and any other distressed European banks?

By the way, regardless of whether CS is bailed out, there's a reason why it's plunged to almost zero in value...and, I doubt whether throwing more money at it will change its trajectory, or merit, as a viable and trustworthy bank, in the long term.

Will that contagion spread to American banks, some of which are already collapsing, as detailed in my last post?

Why is reckless behaviour by bank executives continuously rewarded with bailouts by Central Bankers and governments around the world, at the expense of taxpayers...with no consequences?

N.B. On a related note, I compared the charts and price action of Germany's DAX with the EUFN (Europe's MSCI Financials ETF) several times last year, here (March 7, 2022) and here (July 16, 2022).

I warned of a strong divergence between the DAX and the EUFN in my March 7 post. I noted that, while the DAX had been in a long-term uptrend, the EUFN had been in a volatile and whippy general downtrend. It was a warning of weakness for the DAX (and the EUFN, as well as other European indices). Both plunged a great deal from then, until they bottomed in October, as shown on the following monthly comparison chart.

They've both rallied since then, but have come to a screeching halt and have reversed course this month. In fact, the EUFN has plummeted far worse than the DAX, so far. The Sellers are firmly in charge of EUFN.

If the EUFN continues to outpace the DAX on further downside movement, it's a signal that the DAX may follow soon, thereafter...both worth monitoring over the coming weeks and months, in addition to CS and DB.

* UPDATE March 18...

A takeover deal may be imminent, whereby UBS Group AG (UBS) acquires all or part of Credit Suisse...we'll see what happens...

Source: ZeroHedge

Price action on the following monthly chart of UBS depicts the fact that this investment bank has never recovered from the negative fallout of the 2008/09 Financial Crisis. 

It's been trading in a sideways range between 10.00 and 23.00, since it bottomed in March of 2009..quite the switch from its record high of 66.26 set in April 2007.

The Balance of Power is currently in the hands of Sellers.

A break and hold above 23.00 could inspire confidence in this bank, if it did acquire CS, and entice new shareholders to place their bets accordingly.

However a break and hold below 10.00 could see this bank enter crisis territory and flop, as well.

One to watch over the coming days/weeks.

* UPDATE March 19...

The following ZeroHedge article provides further updates on the negotiations between UBS and CS...it seems a deal has been reached.

If the Swiss National Bank is prepared to assist in this acquisition with a sizeable monetary contribution, this must be a very dire situation, indeed!

Will this end in a nationalization of banks in Switzerland -- and, perhaps in other countries -- at some point...and end capitalism, as we know it?

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE March 20...

Swiss (and European) bond holders are not happy with the deal involving CS, UBS and the Swiss National Bank...

Source: ZeroHedge

Swiss and European banks look weak, as shown on the monthly comparison chart of CS, UBS, DB and EUFN (European Financial ETF).

In fact, keep an eye on DB for signs of further weakness, as it struggles with problems associated with its CDS (credit-default swaps)...

Source: ZeroHedge

WORLD MONEY FLOW: October Week 3, 2022

The following graphs depict percentages gained/lost world-wide for the third week of October for a variety of major world indices, sectors, commodities, currencies and banks.

US Major Indices

US Major Sectors

European Major Indices

Canada, Japan & Australia

EEM & BRICs

Agriculture & Commodities

Currencies, US Bonds, Bitcoin, XLF, EUFN & GXC

Major Banks

At a glance, traders favoured:

• high-risk versus low-risk assets (growth over value),
• US markets versus Europe and Canada,
• the Energy sector, particularly Brent Crude Oil,
• Brazil and Russia,
• Gasoline,
• Silver, Platinum and Copper,
• the Aussie and Canadian Dollars, and, to a lesser extent, the Euro and British Pound Sterling,
• US and European Financial ETFs, and
• major banks (perhaps bank buy-backs were heavily involved).

Losers for the week were:

• US Bonds, 
• the US Dollar, 
• WTI Crude Oil, 
• Agriculture, 
• China, 
• Australia, and
• Japan.

As well as October's end-of-month focus for fund managers, important upcoming dates are: 

• the US Fed meeting (interest rate announcement and press conference) on November 2, and
• the US midterm elections on November 8.

Until the midterm elections are over and all results are fully tabulated and settled, markets may continue to experience volatile, wild whipsaw intraday swings, until we see clear signs of capitulation...as I've discussed in many recent posts.

In this regard, keep an eye on:

• the US Dollar,
• the Energy sector, 
• the Technology sector,
• the Discretionary sector,
• world Financial sectors, and 
• major banks 

for signs of continued risk appetite (e.g., Technology, Discretionary and major banks), or flights to safety (e.g., US Dollar and Energy).

CS & DB: Have You Ever Seen A More Perfect Union Of Banks On The Road To Zero?

* See UPDATES below...

The following monthly comparison chart illustrates the lock-step movements of Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) since September 2001. 

Neither one recovered from the fall from their lifetime highs set in April 2007...right before the 2008/09 financial crisis.

They're both trading at or near their lifetime lows...just above zero.

No matter what pundits and bank executives say, and notwithstanding the fact that they were on the List of 29 Banks Deemed 'Too Big To Fail' by the G20 Financial Stability Board (published in November 2011), exactly how solvent are these banks, since charts don't lie?

Perhaps they funded one-too-many ESG company, or Bitcoin...the top 100 ESG companies are listed here.

The following monthly chart compares the Swiss Franc (CHF/USD) with the Euro (EUR/USD).

With some minor variations since October 1989, these currencies have traded in similar trajectories, as well. The Euro has experienced much more volatility and wild swings, while swings in the Franc have been tighter and more muted.

We'll see if the divergence of the lower monthly swing high set in the Euro in December 2020, versus the higher swing high of the Franc (leading to the sharp decline of the Euro below parity with the USD and to a lower swing low), will, eventually, drag the Swiss Franc below parity and a new swing low, as well.

Such a scenario [a CHF plunge to a new swing low (below its large sideways trading range) and hold below USD parity] could spell the downfall of Credit Suisse and, potentially, Deutsche Bank.

The following ZeroHedge article offers some insights relative to problems at Credit Suisse.

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Oct. 5...

So, has CS bottomed? We'll see what happens. 

Either way, their chart is portraying severe weakness...presumably reflecting credit risk, which is not something that should be ignored in the face of an impending global recession.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Oct. 14...

So, this latest news is interesting...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

Keep an eye on CHF/USD and on CS for developments.

At the moment, they are both down on the day, while CHF/USD is down on the month and CS is slightly off its October low.

BUT...no Fed panic...yet...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Nov. 23...

So far, the cash exodus from Credit Suisse in Q4 has been massive and historic...with no end in sight.

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

Its stock, CS, has plunged, once again, to 3.83 this morning, retesting September's low, with virtually no support below, except last month's record low of 3.70.

ITALY: Time For A Political Change...But Will That Prop Up Their Major Indices?

Since the financial crisis of 2008/09, Italy's Major Indices have had difficulty gaining sustained traction to accumulate and build on meaningful gains above their respective long-term major support levels (16,000 for the FTSE Italia All Share Index and 1,600 for the Investing.com Italy 40 Index). They've been, essentially, trading in a large and whippy sideways consolidation zone, since then.

So, perhaps a change of political landscape will ameliorate that, in due course.

We'll see how the final votes tally up in today's election -- potentially in favour of Italy's first female Prime Minister -- to swing the left-leaning government to a right-leaning one.

Until party leadership and party direction/agenda become known and more detailed, we may see some volatile trading in these markets (as well as the Euro, as noted in my post of September 24) for awhile.

 

Source: ZeroHedge