How Accurate Has My 2022 Market Forecast Been, So Far?

Check out my 2022 Market Forecast of January 1, and see how accurate it's been, to date.

As a quick reminder, the following was my conclusion at the time...my position hasn't changed, and I've written extensively about the markets (including "shocking surprises") since then.

P.S. Just when you thought you'd seen all the "shocking surprises" the world could handle this year, you can add one more to the growing list...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE March 10...

This follow-up report provides clarification on this issue...

Source: ZeroHedge

Best of luck...it's crazy "out there"...and rumours are flying everywhere! 😏

NDX:VXN Ratio At A Critical Level

I last wrote about the NDX:VXN ratio in my post of January 22. 

As of 1:42 pm ET today, it is trading in between two important price levels, namely, 500 and 550, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

The RSI is sitting just below the 50 level, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the PMO is preparing to cross over to the upside.

However, a recent bearish moving average Death Cross formation awaits above, as mentioned in my post above.

Failure of this ratio to break and hold above 550, then break and hold above the 200-day moving average (currently around 668), will signal more weakness, indecision, and volatile swings ahead for the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX).

A drop and hold below 500 will signal extreme weakness in the NDX and the Technology Sector.

The FNGU ETN, mentioned in my post above, managed to hold above 20.00, then break back above 25.00, as shown on the following monthly chart. 

Price action in between major resistance at 30.00 and major support at 25.00 is very thin, and there's not much to stop it from retesting the 20.00 level, or plunging even lower.

The February candle is being supported, thus far, by weak Buyers, as depicted on the Balance of Power indicator below.

So, watch for a drop and hold below 500, then 400 for the NDX:VXN ratio and a drop and hold below 25.00, then 20.00 for FNGU as a sign that extreme weakness is in store for the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Technology Sector.

Otherwise, look for further volatility and extreme swings in both directions in the NDX, the Technology Sector, the NDX:VXN ratio, and the FNGU ETN for the foreseeable future.

P.S. By the way, apparently TWTR has been replaced by MSFT in the FNGU ETN basket of stocks. The following revised one-year daily chartgrid of FNGU and its 10 stocks incorporates this update.

Bad Economic News For American Consumers

* See UPDATE below...

A variety of economic reports were released last Friday.

They're confirming rising prices of consumer goods and services, lower wages, falling consumer spending, falling consumer sentiment, and higher consumer inflation expectations, as shown on the following graphs (source: ForexFactory.com)...bad news for consumers and at variance with Wall Street's expectations for higher equity prices and higher company earnings for 2022.

I'll repeat what I said in: 

• an UPDATE to my 2021 Market Wrap-Up and 2022 Forecast, as follows...

• and, in several UPDATES to my recent article on the Federal Reserve, as follows,

* UPDATE February 3...

Stagflation and the threat of war are on the horizon...not a good combination for world markets...

Source: ZeroHedge

Indecision Grips The SPX Amid A Rising Misery Index

I last wrote about the SPX and the Federal Reserve here.

The high-wave candle forming on the following weekly chart of the SPX indicates indecision by investors.

It's formation, thus far this week, follows today's FOMC interest rate statement and Chairman Powell's press conference...about which I wrote in today's UPDATE in my above-mentioned article.

As of Wednesday's close on this weekly candle, the Balance of Power is slightly in favour of the buyers.

However, with very little price movement to the downside, that balance can shift in an instant.

It's one indicator worth watching, especially into Friday's close this week, and beyond.

With the Misery Index on the rise under President Biden's radical socialist policies, executive actions, and agenda, we're likely to see high volatility continue in both directions in all markets for the foreseeable future and into 2023, and beyond.

The Misery Index is currently at 10.94.

My post entitled SPX: The Blowoff Phase Has Begun describes the factors affecting these moves and provides links to a variety of my articles for further insights, as well as price targets and support/resistance levels for the SPX...all worth a read.

Source: Investopedia

Source: MiseryIndex.us

Volatility Bites U.S. Markets...But, Should It Bite The Fed?

* See UPDATES below...

The SPX had a wild ride today, with an intraday trading range of 194.7 points, complete with a gap down on the open, followed by a huge drop lower, and finally followed by a massive rally to close the day a bit higher than Friday's close, as shown on the following daily chart.

This volatile action triggered some interesting tweets...

...and has created an "interesting" dilemma for the Federal Reserve to digest as they examine their next moves at their upcoming meeting this Wednesday.

However, I can't see this influencing their dual mandate to maintain a 2.0% inflation target and stable prices (the U.S. inflation rate is already well above at 7.0% with no signs of abating) and to promote maximum employment (the current unemployment rate is 3.9%). 

Their current interest rate is 0.25% and is not a deterrent to curb out-of-control inflation.

If today's intraday volatility does unduly influence them, they're not performing (what should be) their impartial job of properly managing their dual mandate, in my opinion.

Source: TradingEconomics

* UPDATE January 26...

The Fed has failed to carry out their dual mandate, once again...inflation will continue to rage.

Not hiking interest rates now is foolish and signals to investors and the rest of the world that the U.S. economy is too weak to withstand higher rates. 

Therefore, this does NOT justify higher equity prices, in my opinion

They will have to revert to drastic measures soon to make any meaningful dent in out-of-control inflation, because they've waited far too long. They should have stopped their bond-buying spree and begun to raise rates months ago.

Link to FOMC statement

Morning comments made prior to the FOMC statement indicate a growing concern over the Fed's lack of leadership in calming inflation...President Biden has already thrown Chairman Powell under the bus on this issue.

However, the President is not without blame in contributing to inflation. He needs to:

• REVERSE his executive actions when he (1) restricted oil and gas exploration and drilling on federal lands and imposed further regulations on that industry, and (2) withdrew the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada...those two actions on Day One of his presidency triggered and contributed to the inflation spike.
• STOP paying people to stay home and to get back to work.
• STOP flooding the economy with fiscal stimulus programs and exploding the national debt (now at $29.88 Trillion).
• START implementing policies that tighten national security, rather than continue with those that are weakening it...e.g., resume building the southern border wall and enforce existing immigration laws.

Both men need to start doing their jobs properly...otherwise, a GOP majority win in both the House and Senate is guaranteed in the November mid-term election. 

However, with Biden's overall approval rating already in the 30's because of his reckless actions (Afghanistan), and his radical socialist policies and agenda, a massive GOP win is likely to occur, anyway.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE January 27...

It seems as though it doesn't really matter to Chairman Powell that inflation is hitting lower-income people hard...so, who's looking out for them and, really, what use is the Fed? 😕

Source: ZeroHedge

Expect:

• the market chaos to continue,
• the lower class continue to suffer under crushing inflation,
• the Misery Index continue to rise, as described in my post of January 26,
• while the Fed and the President "fiddle and fluff over" the harsh results/realities of their actions/inactions.

TECHNOLOGY SECTOR: Approaching Terminal Velocity

* See UPDATE below...

I last wrote about FNGU (an exchange-traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movement on an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies) in my post of December 20, 2021.

As you can see from the following monthly chart, it failed to recapture and hold above the 33.00 level, mentioned therein, and closed at 25.74 on Friday.

It's approaching a price support zone from 20.00 to 25.00. We may see it attempt to stabilize somewhere within this zone in the coming days.

If not, a drop and hold below 20.00 could be catastrophic for the Technology Sector.

The ten stocks that make up FNGU are shown on the following 1-year daily charts.

Most of them are at or near price support, with the exception of TWTR, which is well below for the year.

The following daily ratio chart of the NDX:VXN ratio shows that a bearish moving average Death Cross formed several days ago, and price has fallen below major support of 500.

I noted in my post of January 21 that a Death Cross had also formed on the SPX:VIX ratio and that the 'sell the rip' traders had overtaken the 'buy the dippers.' The same is true for this ratio.

If the NDX:VXN drops and holds below 400, its next major support level sits at 300, followed by 250 and 200, respectively.

In conclusion, if FNGU falls and holds below 25.00, and if the NDX:VIX ratio falls and holds below 400, and if the ten FNGU stocks fall and hold below their near-term price support levels, I wouldn't be surprised to see FNGU retest the lower edge of its support zone at 20.00.

A drop and hold below 20.00 on FNGU and below 300 on the NDX:VXN ratio could be catastrophic for the Technology Sector.

Keep an eye on the price action and support levels on the SPX and SPX:VIX ratio described in the aforementioned post for possible corroborating clues in this regard.

* UPDATE February 2...

Apparently TWTR has been replaced by MSFT in the FNGU ETN basket of stocks. The following revised one-year daily chartgrid of FNGU and its 10 stocks incorporates this update.

SPX: In For A 50% Correction?

The following article refers...it mentions a possible 50% correction on the SPX.

Source: ZeroHedge

I last wrote about the SPX and the SPX:VIX Ratio in my post of January 17. 

If Jeremy Grantham's call for the SPX to correct by nearly 50% from its top at 4800 to his major support level around 2500 comes to fruition, the last four and a half years of wealth accumulation will be wiped out, as shown on the following monthly chart of the SPX.

That level is well below S3 (2870) mentioned in my 2021 Market Wrap-Up and 2022 Forecast post.

The SPX:VIX Ratio closed below the major support level of 200 in Thursday's trading, as shown on the following daily ratio chart.

This follows the formation of the moving average Death Cross discussed in my January 17 post.

If price holds below 200, this does not bode well for the SPX, inasmuch as it seems that the 'sell the rip' traders have overtaken the 'buy the dippers' at this point.

This will continue, in my opinion, provided that the Fed does NOT interfere, but allows the equity market to self-correct and find its fair value.

I'd keep an eye on whether fair value and market stabilization occur around any of the following ratio levels, namely 150, 100, 80, or 60. 

A drop and hold below 60 would be catastrophic for the SPX and could send it plunging to 2500, or lower.

President Biden's two-hour question and answer session with the press on January 19 did absolutely nothing to stabilize the markets.

I won't bore you with the details. Many others have reported on his disastrous answers and performance...true to form, it wasn't pretty.

If you want to see for yourself, you can view the video link below.

Link to video

VP Kamala Harris: QOTD... 😏

Yes, she really said that (and more) this week in an NBC "Today" interview...😕

HOW TO CONTROL INFLATION: Once Upon a Time... 😏

More Biden Crises Erupt: COVID-19 😕

* See UPDATES below...

Good question, Ari...and it's one that others are also asking.

I'd also ask why he didn't organize a task force to launch an "Operation Warp Speed" to produce these test kits, as well as develop and produce theraputics, such as the "Operation Warp Speed" program ordered by former President Trump to research and produce vaccines for COVID-19? 

He's had months to do so, but sat on it instead. Why?

Add these to the many crises and failures of President Biden's first year in office...which started on Day One when he signed executive orders banning new oil and gas exploration and drilling on federal lands and cancelled the Keystone XL pipeline already well under construction from Canada, which led to an increase in the price of  WTI Crude Oil from 48.52 (at the December 2020 close) to a high of 85.41 this year. 

Of course, this higher cost ended up negatively affecting the costs of all goods and services and contributed to the inflationary numbers we're seeing today. 

Until Biden reverses these orders, inflation will remain high, with energy shortages becoming the norm...quite the reversal from the energy independence and low oil and gas prices that Americans enjoyed, for the first time, by the end of Trump's presidency, thanks to his policies.

Furthermore, until President Biden reverses his prior executive order which cancelled the completion of the wall which was well under construction (by the Trump administration) along the southern border of the country when he first took office, the U.S. will continue importing new COVID-19 cases and new variants via the thousands of illegal aliens who are entering every day...around 2 million did so already in 2021, and most of them were unvaccinated. There is no requirement by the Biden administration that they be vaccinated before being allowed to remain in the country, unlike the thousands of Americans who wish to work and eat at restaurants, etc...which is also contributing to supply chain shortages, worker and healthcare shortages, and inflation.

No wonder most Americans are suffering under his policies, which are negatively impacting national security, inflation, and the national debt, etc.

With three more years remaining under Biden's presidency, I doubt things will get any better any time soon...rather, quite the opposite, so brace yourselves.

Afghanistan Crisis

* UPDATE January 11...

It looks like it's too late for President Biden to get a grip on the COVID-19 crisis...he failed to act in a timely manner...

Source: ZeroHedge

Meanwhile, his top advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci, has some serious explaining to do regarding the origins of COVID-19...

Source: ZeroHedge

And, there's this...

Source: ZeroHedge

Americans...and the rest of the world...deserve truthful answers, once and for all...on a number of issues related to the pandemic, not just on the origins. 

I've no doubt they will get them, in due course...as is beginning to be released by the US CDC...

Link to video

Link to video

Source: WSJ

* UPDATE January 12...

Source: National Review

* UPDATE January 13...

* UPDATE January 14...

Good question, Glenn...why are Democrats, including Joe Biden, protecting Russia's energy supply...while hamstringing America's oil and gas supply?

And, why did they use the fillibuster to block this bill on the same day that Biden was criticizing members of his own party for not supporting ending the fillibuster rule so he could get his voting rights agenda passed in the Senate?

It's all very nonsensical and hypocritical.

Source: ZeroHedge

More bad news for Dr. Fauci, and, by extension, President Biden, regarding the origins of COVID-19, its funding, and the early findings on theraputics...

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE July 21...

Oops!...more awkward Biden bloopers...he's had 2 vaccination shots and 2 boosters...but still got COVID-19...in spite of his prior declarations that the virus was a "pandemic of the unvaccinated"...

* UPDATE July 23...

Shameful bald-faced lies by Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci have now been exposed regarding COVID-19, vaccines and the virus origin, as well as suppression of free speech.

Who are we supposed to trust anymore to tell the truth about viruses and vaccines? 😕

What are the penalties for these lies and suppression of free speech??? 🤔

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Aug. 17...

Perhaps if the CDC concentrated on studying and publishing actual scientific facts, instead of politicizing theories, speculations, fabricated 'facts' (lies) and orders from their political boss (President), they'd provide adequate and appropriate health protection, guidance and services for the public in the future...but, don't hold your breath that it will operate that way any time soon, inasmuch as the Biden administration has its political finger on the scale of everything.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Sept. 18...

So, what else is new?...Is anyone surprised?

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Oct. 12...

Another blatant lie exposed -- this time exposing Pfizer -- which was repeated by Dr. Fauci and President Biden.

It's a doozy, which, no doubt, cost thousands of people their jobs who refused to get Biden's mandated jab!

Where is the accountability and what are the repercussions for all their lies?

Source: ZeroHedge

COVID discriminations didn't occur only in America.

Canada was plagued with its share of unprecedented mandates and discriminations...by its political leaders, under the influence of their health advisors.

With a change in leadership, hopefully these will eventually be resolved to everyone's satisfaction and the wrongdoings will be made right.

It truly was/is the worst of times!

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Oct. 19...

This disturbing disclosure by Moderna makes me wonder why people were forced to take their original 2-dose COVID-19 vaccine in the first place, or be fired from their jobs, or prohibited from accessing other services and travelling, etc.

There are a lot of things about all of this that don't make sense. Hopefully a new Congress will investigate all of these issues in the new year.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Nov. 2...

So...forgive and forget?

Somehow, I don't think that will catch on...too many lies were told and too many lives were (and are being) ruined. 😕

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE Feb. 26, 2023...

So, which U.S. government agency will flip its conclusions, next, about the origins of COVID-19?

The Energy Department joins the FBI and others in concluding that the pandemic most likely arose from a virology lab leak in Wuhan, China.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE March 1...

The FBI Director has now confirmed, in a Fox News TV interview and in a tweet, that the origins of COVID-19 "most likely" came from the Wuhan lab in China, as outlined in the following Zerohedge article.

Americans are now waiting for President Biden to make the same public declaration...and outline what steps he will take to ensure that this does not happen again, as well as what consequences will befall the Chinese government from this world-wide health and economic catastrophy.

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE March 6...

It seems that CNN (and other news agencies...except Fox News) are more intent on making up "so-called news" than actually investigating stories and events properly and reporting the facts. 

No wonder the Nielsen TV ratings consistently put them in last place!

Nothing has changed at CNN under new management, inasmuch as their reporting is still not credible.

Source: ZeroHedge

The following Fox News TV show aired yesterday and contained eye-opening information relating to the origins of the COVID -19 virus...

Click this link to watch the video

* UPDATE March 18...

The truth is beginning to emerge, regarding negative (and sometimes permanent or, even, deadly) side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE May 18...

Even the Pentagon, by its findings, has put to rest the claim by Dr. Fauci that COVID-19 originated in nature...

Source: ZeroHedge

* UPDATE September 12...

So, who paid off these CIA investigators and why? 

What is the Biden administration trying to hide from the public?

Source: ZeroHedge

~~~~~~~~~

Judging by the revelations of blatant lies told by Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci regarding COVID-19, it seems like the following ability is not limited to Joe Biden!