I last wrote about the SPX on July 3rd 2025, as detailed here.
It shot through and remained above my target price of 7,000 several months before August 2026, and since then it remained pretty much in its unabated upward trajectory.
As you can see on the following monthly chart, it may be readying to spike towards 8,000, judging by the steepening trend.
It's worth keeping an eye on the US 10-year treasury yield, as I've recently noted in this post.
It's been swirling around the 4.70 mark since then.
On a side note, the US National Debt recently reached $40 Trillion...not an attractive number for midterm election voters to consider swallowing this November.
Should the US10YT hold above 4.70 we could see it spike and hit the 6.00 level, perhaps in short order...and, perhaps, hand-in-hand with the SPX...as a last gasp in both of these before we see some major profit taking.
Additionally, keep an eye on copper (HG), coal (COAL), and the materials sector (XLB), which also appear to be poised to go vertical from their highs sometime soon.
About 52% of Canada's copper is exported to the United States and it may become involved in the ridiculous tariff war that Donald Trump started with Canada last year and has now escalated into a full-blown trade war.
By the way, rather than weakening Prime Minister Carney's Liberal party, Trump's trade war has, right from the beginning 15 months ago, strengthened and elevated it from a minority to a majority government with Canadians solidly behind him, so that backfired!
So that tariff/trade war, together with Trump's economic and military war against Iran, may hasten and add extra punch to these spikes, as well as others not mentioned here [such as WTI Crude Oil and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, (by the way, the President's so-called deal with Venezuela on their heavy crude sour oil is more likely to sour before it ever begins to replenish the SPR); or US Bank loans/bubbles; or SoftBank and their US investments].
All of these are worth watching over the next few weeks and months, as things could get quite volatile and interesting.
P.S. Donald Trump's actions regarding trade and tariffs are not representative of a free-market capitalist system. Rather, they belong to an entirely different system that was popular in Europe from the 16th to 18th centuries called mercantilism.
It views trade as a zero-sum game where a nation must hoard wealth, block imports, and maximize exports to beat its neighbors.
So, knowing that his vision for America is steeped in these ancient and archaic trade practices should be a warning to other countries wishing to trade with it that it might do so, but will suffer the destructive consequences of his antiquated anti-capitalist whims.
And there is nothing fair about that at all in the Western world!
By the way, not only are his escalating tariffs and bans destructive to its largest trading partner, Canada, but they're also very damaging to the United States, due to the highly integrated supply and manufacturing processes and multi-level back-and-forth assembly and trading between these two countries that have been developed over decades...long before Mr. Trump ever entered politics.
That situation is a lose/lose proposition for President Trump! 👀