Best wishes for good trading...enjoy the week! 😊
Beach Drinks
Sunday, October 16, 2022
Saturday, October 15, 2022
From This Week's "Smile File"...That Pesky "October Surprise" 😊
Watch out for that pesky "October surprise"...it's a doozy! 😏
BlackRock's Parabolic Plunge
* See UPDATES below...
The following monthly chart of BlackRock Inc. (BLK) shows that it has had difficulty sustaining gains above 400.00, when it broke above that level in April 2017...from a base that began to form in October 2013 at 300.00.
It hit a high of 973.16 in November 2021, before plummeting to a low of 504.64, so far, this month.
As of this week's close, BLK is down by 41.80% from its record high.
Apparently, the company is ready to invest in U.S. energy pipelines, once those projects are green-lit by the Biden government...expanding its holdings beyond ESG-aligned investments.
It seems like those "Environmental Social Governance" investments haven't been so profitable for BlackRock's shareholders, after all...since many are withdrawing their funds from their management.
Until the US Fed is finished raising interest rates to combat 40-year high inflation, and until the Biden administration is ready to reverse its devastating war against fossil fuels, BLK will, no doubt, experience further pain and losses, along with the US equity market, in general, as described in my post of October 14.
BLK may retest 500.00, or even drop further to 400.00...or lower, yet.
Oilprice excerpt
Oilprice excerpt
ZeroHedge excerpt
N.B. The following monthly charts of XLF plus 9 major banks, including BLK, depict all of their struggles, particularly this year. (I initially warned about bank bubbles bursting on April 10, 2021.)
I've also included CS and DB...about which I've recently written here, inasmuch as they have their own issues.
The following four graphs depict percentages gained/lost over several different time periods.
Overall (apart from CS), BLK has lost the most, on a percentage basis, over three of the four timeframes. It was flat this past week.
Its comparative weakness is notable and may hint of some underlying problem that hasn't surfaced...yet.
One to keep an eye on over the coming weeks/months.
Nov. 12, 2021 to Oct. 14, 2022
YTD
One Month
One Week
* UPDATE Nov. 5...
Keep an eye on the banks (over-leveraged) mentioned in the following article, and above, for signs of accelerating weakness to signal more downside for equities and bonds...assuming global Central Bankers continue to raise rates and with their QT program, to combat out-of-control inflation.
I wonder how Americans would feel about another major bank bailout, as a repeat of what transpired in 2009? 😕
ZeroHedge excerpt (CONCLUSION)
Monthly Comparison chart of
Deutsche Bank & US 10-Year Yields
Monthly Comparison chart of
BlackRock Inc. & US 10-Year Yields
* UPDATE Nov. 5...
The implementation of ESG criteria by companies may be illegal...for several reasons...
ZeroHedge excerpt
* UPDATE Dec. 1...
BlackRock ditches ESG fund...due to "lack of interest, amid poor performance."
I guess the penny has finally dropped. 😕
* UPDATE Dec. 2...
Important Twitter thread on ESG and Blackrock...
* UPDATE Dec. 9...
BlackRock's forecast for 2023 is rather dire...
* UPDATE March 31, 2023...
Reality about the viability and legality of ESG-related rules for companies in which they invest, is beginning to set in on investment firms, such as BlackRock, as detailed in the following ZeroHedge report.
* UPDATE May 1...
The following article is 'illuminating'...remember SIFI (pertaining to BlackRock) in the days/weeks ahead...
ZeroHedge excerpt
Following the latest 'dead-cat-bounce,' a drop and hold below 600 could see BLK retest 400, or lower, as I mentioned at the outset, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Friday, October 14, 2022
SPX 2022: Buy Or Sell Or Stay Out?
* See UPDATES below...
The following excerpts are taken from my 2021 Market Wrap-Up and 2022 Forecast (much of which has transpired, so far, this year).
Judging from the volatile rollercoaster action in markets this year, it seems that traders would have been better off, if they had:
- liquidated their equity positions,
- then just stayed with cash ($USD),
- then gone on vacation,
- then waited for capitulation before jumping back in, as I've described here, here, here and here,
- AFTER the Fed has stopped raising interest rates.
Instead, we've witnessed a dog's breakfast of volatility that will likely continue, due to the market's penchant for trading on "greed and fear" and "rumour and news" tactics.
SPX Monthly
SPX Daily
How markets closed the week (percentages gained/lost this week)...
US Major Indices: One-Week % Gained/Lost
US Major Sectors: One-Week % Gained/Lost
World Currencies: One-Week % Gained/Lost
And this roundup for the week from ZeroHedge...
* UPDATE Oct. 15...
It looks like markets have more downside in store over the coming weeks and months...plus a lot of volatility...
ZeroHedge excerpt
ZeroHedge excerpt
* UPDATE Oct. 19...
The following summary is taken from today's Beige Book report...the yellow highlights are mine.
The overall themes in the 12 Federal Reserve Districts are pessimism, weakening demand, tight labour markets, and elevated prices.
Any way you look at things, if wages keep rising, this will contribute to higher inflation (in spite of potential lower prices) and lower returns for companies and their shareholders...and further volatility in the markets.
So, all in all, I'd say that today's report does not paint a rosy picture, for the foreseeable future.
Thursday, October 13, 2022
Part III: Joe Biden's Battle For Presidential Survival
Due to the extensive length of the prior articles, I've had to break them up into parts...Part III begins, as follows.
Today begins with the release of the latest CPI numbers.
As you can see from the following ZeroHedge articles, inflation is still on the rise in the U.S., notwithstanding the Fed's attempts to curb it, via its series of interest rate hikes.
As I've previously detailed, ad nauseam, Joe Biden's failed policies are to blame...as the U.S. National Debt continues its parabolic spike above $31 Trillion...and, as U.S. National Security spirals further into a deep hole, thanks to his domestic and foreign actions, to date (e.g., Afghanistan...he was on holiday during that fiasco!)...etc.
PERIOD!
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, no doubt, raised a few elite liberal globalists' eyebrows with his blunt comments today...regarding inflation, oil and gas, ESG, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump.
Even though Trump is NOT the current President, Wall Street still likes to bash him, even though the U.S. economy was exceptionally strong under his conservative policies, numerous accomplishments and his strong leadership).
ZeroHedge excerpt
As an aside, Dimon's bank, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), is trading above a major support level of 100.00, as shown on the following monthly chart...after plummeting from its parabolic high of 172.33, set in November 2021.
It has traded almost in lock-step with the Financials ETF, XLF. Should XLF continue to drop, it may drag JPM down to 100.00, or lower, as well.
As noted in the article above, they are expected to report their Q3 earnings tomorrow...so, we'll see what happens.
And, of course, oil and gas producers are not fans of President Biden's green energy agenda.
So far, Joe Biden has:
- BRAGGED about ending the fossil fuel industry during (and after) his 2020 campaign for President (while draining America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve for political gains),
- BLAMED eveyone and everything (Putin, the war in Ukraine, oil companies, Trump), but himself for spiking oil and gas prices and inflation, and
- BEGGED dictatorships to produce more oil (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran).
ZeroHedge excerpt
ZeroHedge excerpt
So, will these guys vote for Republicans in the November midterm elections?
If not, what's their excuse for whining after that? 🤔
Interesting how prescient this political cartoon was
pre-2020 Presidential election. 😏
* UPDATE Oct. 19...
Sounds like the DOJ/FBI have been dragging their feet on this long-standing issue and have some explaining to do...
* UPDATE Oct. 24...
They're not alone...😕
* UPDATE Nov. 3...
Biden's..."'hostile' federal administrators installed to attack the energy industry."
Not only that, and, as a result of high inflation and energy prices, it seems that Joe Biden doesn't care how much pain and hardship his draconian policies cost his citizens and turns them into debtor-serfs.
He's tone-deaf to their struggles...and voters are noticing.
We'll see what happens on November 8 (midterm election day)! 👀
If a "red wave" occurs (Republicans retake the House and Senate with a clear majority), President Biden has no one but himself to blame! 🤔
The following article lays out an excellent summary of Joe's "accomplishments" during the past two years.
It's not a pretty picture...
ZeroHedge excerpt
ZeroHedge excerpt
ZeroHedge excerpt
If Democrats think that Barack Obama's voice on the campaign trail in the days before the midterm election will be a plus for their party, they've obviously forgotten all about the 1,000+ seats he lost them during his 8 years as President!
* UPDATE Dec. 22...
An insightful video discussion on December 18 with Fox News TV host Mark Levin and his guests, covering Joe Biden's performance as President, etc...
N.B. Due to the length of this post, you can continue to read updates at this link (Part IV: Joe Biden's Battle For Presidential Survival).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)