So sad...she'll be missed...1.5 Million Twitter followers and her own Wikipedia page...
Spring Tea
Saturday, May 18, 2019
RIP Grumpy Cat :-(
Tardar Sauce (April 4, 2012 - May 14, 2019), nicknamed Grumpy Cat.
So sad...she'll be missed...1.5 Million Twitter followers and her own Wikipedia page...
So sad...she'll be missed...1.5 Million Twitter followers and her own Wikipedia page...
Monday, May 13, 2019
China's Shanghai Index: No Longer A Market Leader
Take a look at this monthly comparison chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) versus China's Shanghai Index (SSEC).
While the SSEC literally exploded during 2007 compared with the gains made by the SPX, and made an anaemic attempt in 2015, it's, essentially, gone nowhere since mid-2015.
If this is a harbinger of things to come, I'd say that China is in for a rough ride over the next few years...particularly in light of the current trade war with the U.S. And, it's time for them to negotiate in good faith, as Senator Grassley has tweeted.
You can see from my post of May 6 that major support sits at 2500 for the SSEC. If it blows through that level, watch out below!
World markets closed the day massively in the red on Monday...possibly related to this trade escalation and perhaps other world tensions, e.g., Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, etc., as well as slowing world economies. We'll see how overnight trading fares in China tonight.
P.S. Is anybody besides me getting tired of President Trump's incessant "good-cop bad-cop" tweets/messages regarding trade talks with China? All you have to do is look at this 60 min chart of the SPX to figure out where and when after-hours "bad-cop" tweets/messages were let loose by either him or his negotiators, and when "good-cop" tweets/messages were released during market hours. It's getting silly...and predictable.
And, isn't it about time that he finally outlined a comprehensive trade policy that, not only includes China, but other world countries, as well? It's long overdue, in my opinion!
While the SSEC literally exploded during 2007 compared with the gains made by the SPX, and made an anaemic attempt in 2015, it's, essentially, gone nowhere since mid-2015.
If this is a harbinger of things to come, I'd say that China is in for a rough ride over the next few years...particularly in light of the current trade war with the U.S. And, it's time for them to negotiate in good faith, as Senator Grassley has tweeted.
You can see from my post of May 6 that major support sits at 2500 for the SSEC. If it blows through that level, watch out below!
 |
| Source: ZeroHedge.com |
World markets closed the day massively in the red on Monday...possibly related to this trade escalation and perhaps other world tensions, e.g., Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, etc., as well as slowing world economies. We'll see how overnight trading fares in China tonight.
P.S. Is anybody besides me getting tired of President Trump's incessant "good-cop bad-cop" tweets/messages regarding trade talks with China? All you have to do is look at this 60 min chart of the SPX to figure out where and when after-hours "bad-cop" tweets/messages were let loose by either him or his negotiators, and when "good-cop" tweets/messages were released during market hours. It's getting silly...and predictable.
And, isn't it about time that he finally outlined a comprehensive trade policy that, not only includes China, but other world countries, as well? It's long overdue, in my opinion!
Saturday, May 11, 2019
Sell In May And Go Away...For The Rest Of 2019?
The following graph of the U.S. Major Indices shows the percentages gained from January 1 to the highs that were made, so far, in 2019 (about a week ago).
In my 2019 Market Forecast post of December 17, 2018, I reported that the SPX gained 9.62% for 2018 and thought that, "2019 is likely to bring the same level of volatility and uncertainty, not just in U.S. equity markets, but in other world markets and world politics, as well." That was based on the assumption that central bankers would continue to tighten their monetary policies, with no further fiscal stimulus packages on the horizon in the U.S. at the time. Since then, the Fed has loosened its monetary policies and has indicated that no rate hikes would be implemented in 2019.
I further mentioned that the SPX may, either, retest its all-time high of 2940.91, or resume further declines, putting it at 2400, or lower, to possibly 2250 or 2000 (on the date of my post, the SPX had closed at 2546.2).
After hitting a low of 2346.58 on December 26, the SPX closed out the year at 2506.85 and has since climbed to a new high of 2954.13 on May 1, surpassing its prior high. It has pulled back a bit to close at 2881.40 on Friday.
After further examination, I'd now add 2800 and 2600 to those major support levels, which are evident on the following weekly chart (shown in simple "area" format). At a glance, 2600 stands out as a "right shoulder" target on a potential "inverted head and shoulders" formation, albeit following a large rally from the 2016 Presidential election, rather than after a decline, which would be more typical for this type of technical formation in order for it to trigger and spawn a new rally to, potentially, new highs.
Inasmuch as the SPX has pretty much fulfilled my forecast in its gains for 2019, we may have just seen the top put in for the year, and we may see it pull back to, at least, 2600, or lower. At the risk of repeating myself, I'll, instead, refer to my recent posts here, here, here and here, which describe the market gauges I'm monitoring in this regard.
In my 2019 Market Forecast post of December 17, 2018, I reported that the SPX gained 9.62% for 2018 and thought that, "2019 is likely to bring the same level of volatility and uncertainty, not just in U.S. equity markets, but in other world markets and world politics, as well." That was based on the assumption that central bankers would continue to tighten their monetary policies, with no further fiscal stimulus packages on the horizon in the U.S. at the time. Since then, the Fed has loosened its monetary policies and has indicated that no rate hikes would be implemented in 2019.
I further mentioned that the SPX may, either, retest its all-time high of 2940.91, or resume further declines, putting it at 2400, or lower, to possibly 2250 or 2000 (on the date of my post, the SPX had closed at 2546.2).
After hitting a low of 2346.58 on December 26, the SPX closed out the year at 2506.85 and has since climbed to a new high of 2954.13 on May 1, surpassing its prior high. It has pulled back a bit to close at 2881.40 on Friday.
After further examination, I'd now add 2800 and 2600 to those major support levels, which are evident on the following weekly chart (shown in simple "area" format). At a glance, 2600 stands out as a "right shoulder" target on a potential "inverted head and shoulders" formation, albeit following a large rally from the 2016 Presidential election, rather than after a decline, which would be more typical for this type of technical formation in order for it to trigger and spawn a new rally to, potentially, new highs.
Inasmuch as the SPX has pretty much fulfilled my forecast in its gains for 2019, we may have just seen the top put in for the year, and we may see it pull back to, at least, 2600, or lower. At the risk of repeating myself, I'll, instead, refer to my recent posts here, here, here and here, which describe the market gauges I'm monitoring in this regard.
Monday, May 06, 2019
China's Shanghai Index Rejected At Major Resistance
* See UPDATE below...
I last wrote about China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) on March 25, at which time I identified 3150 as major resistance. Price had closed at 3043.03 that day.
Since then, price briefly broke above 3150 to hit a high of 3288.45 on April 8, and, after retesting that level several times over the next few days, it finally broke and closed below on April 25. In Sunday's overnight trading it closed today (Monday) at 2906.46.
Monday's losses occurred after two tweets Sunday night by President Trump regarding trade and tariffs, as noted below. The third tweet was posted today.
Today was another bad Monday (to put it mildly) for Asian markets, as noted below (screen shot taken at 1:30 pm EDT)...(source Indexq.org)
In my above post, I said the following regarding the SSEC:
Major support sits at 2500. Whether it hits that level, or plunges lower, may depend on future unpredictable Trump tweets (which have ranged from extreme optimism on a trade deal, to these latest threats), or on other internal Chinese factors, or other external world events (e.g. tensions/events involving North Korea, Iran, Israel/Palestinians, Venezuela/Russia/Cuba, etc.).
My thoughts outlined in my May 4 post, "I think that U.S. equities and bonds will continue to outperform the rest of the world markets," haven't changed, although we may see some increased volatility and deeper pullbacks over the coming weeks/months than I may have anticipated.
As the S&P 500 Index (SPX) made its new all-time high of 2954.13 on May 1, its corresponding SPX:VIX ratio was not corroborating that strength. As of 2:19 pm EDT today, this ratio had dropped to its 200-day moving average, after it began its decent when it peaked in mid-April. A drop and hold below this moving average (say, 180) could see the SPX plunge much lower (watch for a break and hold below near-term support at 2900) as the SPX:VIX ratio drops to, potentially, 100, or lower.
* UPDATE May 8...
I last wrote about China's Shanghai Index (SSEC) on March 25, at which time I identified 3150 as major resistance. Price had closed at 3043.03 that day.
Since then, price briefly broke above 3150 to hit a high of 3288.45 on April 8, and, after retesting that level several times over the next few days, it finally broke and closed below on April 25. In Sunday's overnight trading it closed today (Monday) at 2906.46.
Monday's losses occurred after two tweets Sunday night by President Trump regarding trade and tariffs, as noted below. The third tweet was posted today.
Today was another bad Monday (to put it mildly) for Asian markets, as noted below (screen shot taken at 1:30 pm EDT)...(source Indexq.org)
In my above post, I said the following regarding the SSEC:
"I've shown the input values of the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators as one period. They're both still below the zero level and have, in fact, been declining on recent attempts to move higher during March.
If price breaks and holds above, say, 3150, I'd like to see both of these indicators also break and hold above zero, while making new highs, as well, to confirm the sustainability of any further meaningful advancement beyond that price.
Otherwise, look for this index to retest its last weekly swing low, or plunge lower, inasmuch as its stability at current levels is questionable."From the following updated weekly chart of SSEC, both the MOM and ROC indicators (shown with an input value of one period) failed to make a new swing high as price made its new swing high on April 8, and they've been declining ever since, to end back in negative territory...hinting of further weakness ahead.
Major support sits at 2500. Whether it hits that level, or plunges lower, may depend on future unpredictable Trump tweets (which have ranged from extreme optimism on a trade deal, to these latest threats), or on other internal Chinese factors, or other external world events (e.g. tensions/events involving North Korea, Iran, Israel/Palestinians, Venezuela/Russia/Cuba, etc.).
 |
| Click here to view video on Twitter |
My thoughts outlined in my May 4 post, "I think that U.S. equities and bonds will continue to outperform the rest of the world markets," haven't changed, although we may see some increased volatility and deeper pullbacks over the coming weeks/months than I may have anticipated.
As the S&P 500 Index (SPX) made its new all-time high of 2954.13 on May 1, its corresponding SPX:VIX ratio was not corroborating that strength. As of 2:19 pm EDT today, this ratio had dropped to its 200-day moving average, after it began its decent when it peaked in mid-April. A drop and hold below this moving average (say, 180) could see the SPX plunge much lower (watch for a break and hold below near-term support at 2900) as the SPX:VIX ratio drops to, potentially, 100, or lower.
* UPDATE May 8...
 |
| Source: ZeroHedge.com |
Saturday, May 04, 2019
General Market Musings
I've not much to say, other than I think that U.S. equities and bonds will continue to outperform the rest of the world markets (especially since the Mueller investigation is now closed, as AG Barr emphatically stated in his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee this past week)...that the slow melt-up continues, punctuated, periodically, by episodes of consolidation and minor pullbacks...watch for a strong U.S. dollar to support this. And, I doubt very much if the Fed cuts rates any time soon, as President Trump has suggested...not with the strong economy firing on all cylinders.
Inasmuch as other countries, such as Canada, have numerous trade messes with multiple countries that they're trying to sort out, without much luck, so far, and with their economies slowing, I don't see a growing world-wide slow-down abating anytime soon.
For example, German manufacturing PMI contraction continues to deepen for the fourth straight month, as noted below.
Major resistance for the U.S. dollar sits at 100.00 and major support at 90.00, as shown below.
So, basically, I've nothing significant to add to what I posted on March 26 and April 3, except to suggest keeping an eye on the market gauges mentioned therein.
Inasmuch as other countries, such as Canada, have numerous trade messes with multiple countries that they're trying to sort out, without much luck, so far, and with their economies slowing, I don't see a growing world-wide slow-down abating anytime soon.
For example, German manufacturing PMI contraction continues to deepen for the fourth straight month, as noted below.
Major resistance for the U.S. dollar sits at 100.00 and major support at 90.00, as shown below.
So, basically, I've nothing significant to add to what I posted on March 26 and April 3, except to suggest keeping an eye on the market gauges mentioned therein.
Friday, April 19, 2019
A Joe Biden Stock Market
* See UPDATES below...
Former Vice-President Joe Biden may run for President in the 2020 election. He stated recently that his platform would be the Obama/Biden policies of yesteryear.
Were he to be elected, and if the old Obama policies were resurrected, we could very well see the S&P 500 Index return to pre-Trump levels around the 2200 level, or lower, as shown on the monthly chart below.
In the two years since President Trump took office, the SPX has gained around the same number of points as it did in the last four years of Obama's presidency. Those gains are in jeopardy, as uncertainty will weigh on markets in anticipation of a possible return to a more socialist agenda under Biden, or an even more far-left leaning Democrat.
Think about it...the Democrats' Green New Deal (et al) is only an election away...
* UPDATES September 21, 2019...
The fallout begins after reports surface of a so-called "whistleblower" (whether or not this person is a bonafide whistleblower is unclear at this moment) who is alleging inappropriate telephone discussions by President Trump with a foreign leader (possibly Ukraine)...and, it's beginning to look like this may, instead, boomerang back onto Democrats and, ultimately, former Vice President Joe Biden, who is running for President in the Democrat 2020 primaries...
And...it looks to me like if any administration was meddling in Ukraine's affairs, it was Obama's...
And...from the horse's (Ukraine's) mouth...sounds to me like there's "no there there" regarding the allegations against Trump...
👀 Meanwhile, Putin's enjoying thechaos tempest-in-a-teacup, yet again...seeded by Democrats, yet again...with ties to the Ukraine, yet again...
P.S.
P.S.
More updates on Joe Biden can be read in my posts here.
Former Vice-President Joe Biden may run for President in the 2020 election. He stated recently that his platform would be the Obama/Biden policies of yesteryear.
Were he to be elected, and if the old Obama policies were resurrected, we could very well see the S&P 500 Index return to pre-Trump levels around the 2200 level, or lower, as shown on the monthly chart below.
In the two years since President Trump took office, the SPX has gained around the same number of points as it did in the last four years of Obama's presidency. Those gains are in jeopardy, as uncertainty will weigh on markets in anticipation of a possible return to a more socialist agenda under Biden, or an even more far-left leaning Democrat.
Think about it...the Democrats' Green New Deal (et al) is only an election away...
* UPDATES September 21, 2019...
The fallout begins after reports surface of a so-called "whistleblower" (whether or not this person is a bonafide whistleblower is unclear at this moment) who is alleging inappropriate telephone discussions by President Trump with a foreign leader (possibly Ukraine)...and, it's beginning to look like this may, instead, boomerang back onto Democrats and, ultimately, former Vice President Joe Biden, who is running for President in the Democrat 2020 primaries...
Source: thegreggjarrett.com
Source: thehill.com
Source: nationalreview.com
Source: foxnews.com
Click here to watch video
Source: zerohedge.com
Click here to view video
Source: newyorker.com
Source: dailywire.com
Click here to watch video
And...it looks to me like if any administration was meddling in Ukraine's affairs, it was Obama's...
Source: thehill.com
On September 22, Fox TV's Mark Levin interviews author and former law enforcement officer and Secret Service Federal agent, Dan Bongino about the origins of the Trump-Russia collusion investigation.
Click here to view the video
And...from the horse's (Ukraine's) mouth...sounds to me like there's "no there there" regarding the allegations against Trump...
Source: reuters.com
Source: zerohedge.com
* UPDATE September 25...
President Trump has declassified and released a transcript of his phone conversation with the Ukrainian President...
And this analysis from WSJ editorial page columnist Kimberley Strassel...
* UPDATE September 26...
The whistleblower's complaint has been declassified and all 9 pages can be read at this link.
And...a former CIA analyst rips it to shreds...
The Federalist co-founder Sean Davis reports that the "complaint from so-called 'Whistleblower' is riddled with gossip, blatant falsehoods"...
I watched Acting Director of National Intelligence Joe Maguire testify before the House Intelligence Committee today on the whistleblower matter...and actually felt nauseated during the event.
I watched Democrat Adam Schiff, Chairman of that committee, and his Democrat colleagues shred American rights, freedom, liberty, rule of law and plain human decency during the proceedings...it was a parody of American democracy and amounted to a cruel and gross abuse of power, as was also on display by Democrats during the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings in the Senate.
I had hoped that kind of behaviour wouldn't be repeated, but I see that it hasn't stopped...nor do I suspect that it will until the 2020 presidential election is over. In fact, I think it will only get worse, as Democrats continue their harassment of the President with "impeachment inquiries" by various House Committees, without the legal authority of a majority vote to do so by members of the full House of Representatives...Speaker Nancy Pelosi has yet to bring it to the floor for a vote.
Thank God I'm not an American, nor do I live in the USA...heaven help Hillary's "basket of deplorables" who do (Trump administration officials and the 63 million supporters who voted for him). How they are being (mis)treated is on full public display in Congress, as well as on the streets of America.
It looks like Senator Chuck Schumer's January 3, 2017 warning to Trump (before he was even sworn in as President on January 20) was, indeed, prescient...the warning then...
And, the warning's relevance, now...
Market reaction since the 2018 midterm elections has been volatile and non-directional, as noted within the pink box on the following monthly chart of the SPX.
Price has been unable to gain much traction since it broke above the first all-time high of 2872.87, that was made in January 2018.
A drop and hold below that level could see price retest the December 2018 low of 2346.58, or decline lower.
The information that was released today in this article from The Hill's John Solomon, with respect to Hunter Biden, is extensive...
and raises two important questions at the end...
Byron York writes that "Now, there is much more to be learned, and issues to be resolved as Democrats go forward with their drive to bring Trump down. Here are eight keys to the future fight"...
In their rush to impeach President Trump, Democrats may have sabotaged Joe Biden's bid for 2020 president...no doubt, he's now under the microscope...
In any event, it seems like a few serious investigative journalists are more efficient and timely in uncovering and disseminating facts than Congress.
* UPDATE September 27...
This Fox News TV headline caught my attention this morning...it looks like Democrats' Green New Deal policies may not be so attractive for donors...combine that with what I've outlined above, and we may see their threat actualized, or, even, snowball...
And, to close out the week in markets...
* UPDATE September 29...
For an in-depth look at Joe and Hunter Biden, this video interview -- conducted today by Fox News TV host Mark Levin of author Peter Schweizer -- is illuminating and worth watching.
In any event, it looks like any President of the Unites States has a duty to investigate any information related to corruption/criminal activities, as outlined in this cover letter from former President Bill Clinton regarding a 1999 Treaty between the US and Ukraine (signed at Kiev in 1998 and ratified by the US Senate in 2000)...and, so it appears that President Trump was carrying out that duty during the course of his phone call with the Ukrainian President.
* UPDATE October 4...
This ZeroHedge tweet just popped up today..."interesting" inasmuch as Ukraine, Burisma and a CIA whistleblower are in the news this week...
N.B.
* UPDATE September 25...
President Trump has declassified and released a transcript of his phone conversation with the Ukrainian President...
Click this link to read the full transcript
And this analysis from WSJ editorial page columnist Kimberley Strassel...
Click here to read Kim's entire Twitter thread
* UPDATE September 26...
And...a former CIA analyst rips it to shreds...
Source: dailywire.com
The Federalist co-founder Sean Davis reports that the "complaint from so-called 'Whistleblower' is riddled with gossip, blatant falsehoods"...
Source: thefederalist.com
I watched Acting Director of National Intelligence Joe Maguire testify before the House Intelligence Committee today on the whistleblower matter...and actually felt nauseated during the event.
I watched Democrat Adam Schiff, Chairman of that committee, and his Democrat colleagues shred American rights, freedom, liberty, rule of law and plain human decency during the proceedings...it was a parody of American democracy and amounted to a cruel and gross abuse of power, as was also on display by Democrats during the Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings in the Senate.
Source: thefederalist.com
I had hoped that kind of behaviour wouldn't be repeated, but I see that it hasn't stopped...nor do I suspect that it will until the 2020 presidential election is over. In fact, I think it will only get worse, as Democrats continue their harassment of the President with "impeachment inquiries" by various House Committees, without the legal authority of a majority vote to do so by members of the full House of Representatives...Speaker Nancy Pelosi has yet to bring it to the floor for a vote.
Thank God I'm not an American, nor do I live in the USA...heaven help Hillary's "basket of deplorables" who do (Trump administration officials and the 63 million supporters who voted for him). How they are being (mis)treated is on full public display in Congress, as well as on the streets of America.
Click here to watch the hearing
It looks like Senator Chuck Schumer's January 3, 2017 warning to Trump (before he was even sworn in as President on January 20) was, indeed, prescient...the warning then...
Click here to watch video clip
Source: washingtonexaminer.com
And, the warning's relevance, now...
Source: thefederalist.com
Market reaction since the 2018 midterm elections has been volatile and non-directional, as noted within the pink box on the following monthly chart of the SPX.
Price has been unable to gain much traction since it broke above the first all-time high of 2872.87, that was made in January 2018.
A drop and hold below that level could see price retest the December 2018 low of 2346.58, or decline lower.
The information that was released today in this article from The Hill's John Solomon, with respect to Hunter Biden, is extensive...
"Hundreds of pages of never-released memos and documents -- many from inside the American team helping Burisma to stave off its legal troubles -- conflict with Biden's narrative.
And they raise the troubling prospect that U.S. officials may have painted a false picture in Ukraine that helped ease Burisma's legal troubles and stop prosecutors' plans to interview Hunter Biden during the 2016 U.S. presidential election."
and raises two important questions at the end...
Source: thehill.com
Byron York writes that "Now, there is much more to be learned, and issues to be resolved as Democrats go forward with their drive to bring Trump down. Here are eight keys to the future fight"...
Source: washingtonexaminer.com
In their rush to impeach President Trump, Democrats may have sabotaged Joe Biden's bid for 2020 president...no doubt, he's now under the microscope...
Source: wsj.com
In any event, it seems like a few serious investigative journalists are more efficient and timely in uncovering and disseminating facts than Congress.
* UPDATE September 27...
This Fox News TV headline caught my attention this morning...it looks like Democrats' Green New Deal policies may not be so attractive for donors...combine that with what I've outlined above, and we may see their threat actualized, or, even, snowball...
"DEMOCRATIC DONORS THREATEN TO BACK PRESIDENT TRUMP"
And, to close out the week in markets...
* UPDATE September 29...
For an in-depth look at Joe and Hunter Biden, this video interview -- conducted today by Fox News TV host Mark Levin of author Peter Schweizer -- is illuminating and worth watching.
Click here to view the video
In any event, it looks like any President of the Unites States has a duty to investigate any information related to corruption/criminal activities, as outlined in this cover letter from former President Bill Clinton regarding a 1999 Treaty between the US and Ukraine (signed at Kiev in 1998 and ratified by the US Senate in 2000)...and, so it appears that President Trump was carrying out that duty during the course of his phone call with the Ukrainian President.
N.B. It appears to me that whether or not Joe Biden, or anyone else, would be swept up in an investigation by the Department of Justice and/or the Ukraine into any corruption/criminal activities would be incidental to the overall matter. Remember, Donald Trump was not President at the time of alleged corruption in the Ukraine prior to the November 2016 election...nor was he during the time that Hunter Biden was, allegedly, involved with Ukraine. Instead, Barack Obama was President and Joe Biden was his Vice President. These issues pre-date Joe Biden's decision to run as a Democrat 2020 presidential candidate...and, therefore, to use that argument in an attempt to impeach President Trump would be irrelevant and without merit, in my view.
* UPDATE October 4...
This ZeroHedge tweet just popped up today..."interesting" inasmuch as Ukraine, Burisma and a CIA whistleblower are in the news this week...
Source: huffpost.com
N.B.
- Further relevant information can be found at my subsequent posts here.
- No doubt, there will be many more news reports forthcoming in the days/weeks ahead...too numerous for me to continue to post. Suffice it to say, Messrs. Biden are under the microscope...whether all of this affects Joe's 2020 presidential election chances remains to be seen.
👀 Meanwhile, Putin's enjoying the
P.S.
P.S.
More updates on Joe Biden can be read in my posts here.
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