China's Shanghai Index: A Bounce Next is Critical for Bulls

Further to my post of November 17th, a bounce next (at the 40 MA...3433) and sustained rally to new highs, thereafter, is critical for China's Shanghai Index.

Otherwise,  a break and hold below the 40 MA will signal that the bearish scenario (that I outlined in the above post) is imminent, in my opinion...all three indicators on the Daily chart below of SSEC  now display "SELL" signals.

Political Unity...An Oxymoron

Some things never change...I wonder if they ever will? Case in point, my post of November 7th, 2012...still seems relevant today, except the U.S. National Debt has now reached $18.6 Trillion and there are even deeper differences, not only between Democrats and Republicans, but also within these parties (on issues such as the refugee crisis, as one example).

I repeat:

"The war between its own political parties is a greater threat to America 

than any threat from its enemies."

I've stopped hoping and am simply waiting to see action now...but am not holding my breath on this...perhaps the next generation will figure things out if ours isn't smart enough to do so...some legacy, eh?

Third Major Leg Down Ahead For Shanghai Index?

You can see my original post of July 8th and four subsequent updates covering China's Shanghai Index here for background information.

In my last update of September 8th, I noted that a bearish moving average Death Cross had formed on the Daily chart and price closed at 3170.45. Since that date, price moved sideways for over a month before it, finally, rallied to where it closed today (Tuesday) at 3604.80.

I have the following observations on the 2-year Daily chart below:

• both gaps down in August have now been filled
• a bearish Head & Shoulders has formed on the MACD Histogram, hinting of weakness ahead
• price is approaching a triple confluence major resistance level around 3750 (comprised of the 200 MA, major downtrend line, and a 40% Fibonacci retracement level)
• a re-test of a 200 MA is not uncommon after a Death Cross has formed and price usually drops  afterwards, often to new lows

I wouldn't be surprised to see some major selling come in sometime soon on this index to, possibly, take price down to around 2500, or lower (what would be Wave 5 for Elliott Wave enthusiasts).

S&P 500 Index: Naughty or Nice?

The Momentum indicator has crossed below the zero level on the following Monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), hinting of further weakness ahead.

Major support sits around the 1700 level (confluence of the  50 MA and the 40% Fibonacci retracement level -- taken from the October 2011 lows).

Price on the following Monthly ratio chart of the SPX:VIX rallied at the end of today (Friday) to close just above the 100 level -- which is a major bull/bear line-in-the-sand level -- and, about which, I've written in numerous posts here.

The Momentum indicator is still well below the zero level, also hinting of further weakness ahead for the SPX.

Price on the following Daily chart of the World Market Index did eventually drop to re-test the 1600 level, which was mentioned as a possibility in my above-referenced posts. It, subsequently, bounced and has now fallen back and closed below what was near-term major price support (now major resistance) at 1700 and the 200 MA.

Unless we see price rally and the RSI climb back (and stay) above the 50 level, we could very well see this Index plunge back to 1600, or lower. As of now, all three indicators on this chart contain "SELL" signals...and, in fact, the RSI has now broken its recent uptrend, which, also, suggests further weakness to follow.

Unless we see major buying step in soon for the SPX and the World Market Index, equity markets may very well be in for a lump of coal for Xmas -- and, my 2015 Market Forecast may prove to be fairly accurate -- as of today, there are only six weeks until then.

These three charts should provide clues as to any strengthening or continued weakness in the coming days/weeks.

"World Population Aging: Clocks Illustrate Growth in Population Under Age 5 and Over Age 65"

Wonder no more as to why global economic conditions are slowing down...this article, courtesy of
Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau, offers an excellent explanation [which re-enforces what I've previously said about Baby Boomers (downsizing) here and here]...

"World Population Aging: Clocks Illustrate Growth in Population Under Age 5 and Over Age 65"

I think the U.S. Fed's mandate to tie a 2% inflation target to their timing of a rise in interest rates is outdated and too high and needs to be seriously re-visited, in view of these facts.

Death Cross Formation on Japan's Nikkei Index

Notwithstanding the bearish moving average Death Cross that has now formed on the Japanese Nikkei Index, all three indicators are hinting of higher prices, as shown on the 5-year Daily chart below.

At the moment, major resistance sits at 19000, while minor support is at 17000, with major support at 16000. I'd watch the RSI, in particular, to see whether it can rise (and stay) above the 50.00 level. If so, we may see price spike to 19000 before consolidating -- then, either, attempt to penetrate above (and reverse) the moving average cross-over and rally to, potentially, new highs, or drop to new lows around the 16000 level. Otherwise, a hold below 50.00 on the RSI may see price plunge as low as 16000 (or lower), first.

Fed "Double-Talk"

Just to add to confusion regarding what future direction the FOMC may take regarding whether or not to raise interest rates in 2015, we see this tweet last night...

I would just remind readers that Janet Yellen's comments last night are HER comments and are NOT the official Fed Policy Statement that was released at their last meeting on September 17th. In their Release, they stated that...

"Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term."           

AND...

"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to  maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term."

AND...

"The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

In my opinion, regardless of what Janet Yellen or any other FOMC member (or media pundit) may say in between their last Fed meeting and the next one, the only one that could be considered the official FOMC policy at the moment, is the one stated in their last meeting.

Currency "War" ;-)

What Is The Fed REALLY Saying?

Is the Fed really saying that their present economic monetary policy dictates that they treat current economic conditions like they had to in March of 2009 (re: their decision today to leave Fed Funds Rate unchanged at zero to 1/4 percent)?

If so, then what does that say about the health of U.S. banks? Does that mean they're at the same stress levels as they were in 2009?

If so, then one could rationally conclude that the S&P 500 Index should not be trading 1,323 points higher than it was at the March 2009 lows, as shown on the Monthly chart of the SPX below.

The message I'm seeing on the following Monthly ratio chart of SPX:VIX indicates that the current fear level of market participants equals that experienced back in April of 2011, when the SPX was trading at 1364 before it tumbled to 1074 and, eventually, rallied steadily  to reach all-time highs earlier this year.

CONCLUSIONS:

Both, today's message from the Fed and information on the SPX:VIX ratio chart, are telling me that the current valuation of the SPX (at 1990) is far above where it should be. My comments (and subsequent UPDATES) noted in this previous post regarding the SPX:VIX ratio still apply and are worth monitoring over the coming days and weeks.

* Tweeted by BNN's Andrew McCreath September 18th:

Will Markets Take On More Risk?

The following 1-Year Daily comparison chart has the Dow 30 plotted on as the baseline. You can see that the SPX, NDX & RUT have, for the most part, outperformed the Dow this year.

We'll see if market participants are willing to keep buying into riskier assets in the NDX and RUT (since they're currently outpacing the SPX), or whether money will start flowing back into the larger-cap stocks.

My own feeling is that if (big) money starts fleeing the NDX and RUT (risk), we could, finally, see the SPX and Dow (and other world markets) follow...especially, emerging markets, Japan and China. So, I'd watch for any signs of fresh, large-scale dumping of "risk" on this comparison chart.

With the VIX currently elevated and sitting just above major support (the zone between 20.00 and 25.00), we could, very well, see some large-scale risk-dumping occur (with continued wild, volatile price swings) before markets settle down (when the VIX falls back below 20.00).

Will Japan & China Lead Markets Back Up?

How strong is Japanese influence on U.S. markets?

Will the Shanghai Index regain strength on Monday?

Without U.S. markets opening until Tuesday, we may see an attempt by Japan's Nikkei Index and China's Shanghai Index to bounce somewhat. It may not become clear until Tuesday's close as to the potential strength of any sustainable rally in these Indices, along with the S&P 500 Index. Furthermore, there are quite a lot of economic reports being released on Monday for Japan and China, which may influence Tuesday's trading.

I'd keep a close eye on these three Indices, along with the USD:JPY forex pair, which have all traded lock-step (as shown on the following 1-Year Daily comparison chart), as to which direction the next (sustainable) breakout will occur.

Higher Prices in Store for Crude Oil?

* See UPDATE below...

The last three-day candle pattern on WTIC Crude Oil could very end up being a "Three White Soldiers" pattern, which is, technically, bullish [Definition (courtesy of StockCharts.com): "Three White Soldiers: A bullish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive white bodies, each with a higher close. Each should open within the previous body and the close should be near the high of the day."]

"Three White Soldiers" candle pattern

If that's the case, we may see Oil continue to the next major resistance level around $54.00-55.00 (confluence of the 200 MA on the Daily chart and the Mid-Bollinger Band & upper Channel on the Weekly chart) before, either consolidating, or reversing; otherwise, a reversal here could send it down to around $45.00 or $42.50, or lower.

WTIC Crude Oil 9 Months Daily Chart

WTIC Crude Oil 5 Years Daily Chart

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

* UPDATE September 1, 2015:

Well, just like the action in the game, Pac-Man, WTIC Crude Oil just ate the third "White Soldier" and made inroads on the second one in today's wild 8.24% plunge, after it was rejected at the falling 50 MA.

$45.00 is now resistance and $42.50 is the next support level...a drop below that could send price to new lows for this year.

WTIC Crude Oil 9 Months Daily Chart

What's Still "UP" on the Year?

After the market pullback that we've seen, of late, I thought I'd simply post the following Year-to-Date percentage-gained/lost graphs of a variety of world markets, to illustrate (at a glance) which ones are still "up" on the year (as of their close on Wednesday, August 26th)...presented without individual comment.

They can be monitored to see if they strengthen or weaken over the coming days/weeks, as a possible gauge of general sentiment for the remainder of the markets, particularly, those markets that have lost the most ground this year.

U.S. Major Indices

U.S. 9 Major Sectors

Germany, France + PIIGS Countries

Emerging Markets ETF + BRIC Countries + BRIC ETF

Canada, Japan, UK, Australia + World Market Index

Commodities, Homebuilders ETF, U.S. $ + U.S. Bonds

Currencies

Will GOLD and PLATINUM Make a Comeback?

As I'm writing this post (10:00 pm ET August 26th), PLATINUM is currently rallying (+16.60).

My WAG is, if it can hold above 970.30, we could see a substantial rally on it, and take GOLD along for the ride.

PLATINUM/GOLD Daily Comparison Chart