FedEx Volatility: Three Strikes And You're Out!

* See UPDATE below...

Following Thursday's after-hours dire world-wide recession warning by FedEx CEO, its stock (FDX) has plunged this morning.

FDX has a history of volatile parabolic spikes and plunges. In fact, it had difficulty, twice, in holding any gains above 120.00 since it broke above in September 2013, as shown on the following monthly chart. Price is heading back to that level for a third time, as I write this post.

A drop and hold below 120.00 could see it hit its next major support level of 80.00, or lower.

If this is a harbinger of things to come, it will confirm that world markets are in for a very rough ride (as I first reported on July 26 and later updates).

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

* UPDATE Sept. 19...

It seems to me that markets have 'levitated on myths' since Day One, especially since March 2009, in the weeks, months and years following the 2008/09 financial crisis.

Fed Chairman Powell can't fix the global supply chain crisis, so his rate-raising actions won't curb inflation entirely, but will contribute to the giant economic mess that countries around the world now find themselves trying to overcome.

People, especially those on fixed and low incomes (and even middle incomes), are in for a lot of pain...thanks to the artificial market and economic environment that global central bankers have created over many years.

In other words, visualize the proportionality of 'cause and effect' and you get the picture.

Cause...Effect?

Source: ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge excerpt

ZeroHedge excerpt

Abraham Maslow (Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs) would be rolling in his grave if he saw the state of things now. 

Most people (99%) around the world are still struggling in the bottom two levels of the Hierarchy.

So much for so-called 'personal progress' over the centuries! 🤔

Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Pierre Poilievre: A Force Majeure

Pierre Poilievre was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada last night in a first-ballot landslide victory.

Judging from his barn-burner speech, and with a very strong mandate, he will be a formidable opposition leader to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau!

One to watch over the coming months!

Link to video

Source: ZeroHedge

R.I.P. Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II...April 21, 1926 - September 8, 2022

Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II passed away at Balmoral Castle, Scotland today, surrounded by her family.

I'll miss her annual Christmas messages...so sad.

My thoughts and prayers are with her family, friends, and the people of the United Kingdom.

Source: ZeroHedge

(N.B. The title of King Charles III has been confirmed)

Will The PHO ETF Sink Or Swim?

The following monthly chart of the Invesco Water Resources ETF (PHO) shows that price has been under stress since January 2022.

This followed a lengthy and unprecedented amount of bullish momentum and rate-of-change activity in the months from November 2020 until this year.

It pushed the price up from a low of 41.21 to a high of 61.07 before dropping to a low of 43.22 by this past June...nearly wiping out all of its gains since then.

If global water resources remain under pressure and continue to dry up, as described in the Zero Hedge article below, we may see PHO retest the 40.00 level, or drop lower.

Keep an eye on a potential increase of bearish momentum and rate-of-change to arise on this timeframe for clues of further weakness ahead for PHO.

Alternatively, look for the reverse scenario occurring to signal a possible retest of the prior monthly swing high, or push higher.

Invesco.com excerpt

Source: ZeroHedge

Natural Gas Futures Index Is Approaching Escape Velocity

The Natural Gas Futures Index (NG) has had difficulty holding above 5.500 since May 2000, as shown on the following monthly chart.

However, momentum (shown in histogram format for clarity) has been building steadily since October 2020, which eventually propelled the price above major resistance at 3.500 in June 2021, and finally above 5.500 in March 2022.

Momentum has not yet reached its historical extreme overbought level yet, so we may see a retest of NG's all-time high of 15.780 (set in December 2005) sometime in the near future, perhaps by the end of this year.

Watch for such an extreme spike to form on the MOM indicator to signal a potential reversal point in this latest rally...should NG continue upward, unhindered by any near-term resistance.

SPX: Will That Be CASH or CRASH?

* See UPDATES below...

I added the following update today in my post of July 26 pertaining to the MSCI World Index:

To that, I'd note that it's still a bear market for the SPX (currently below its 50 MA) on a weekly timeframe (until it makes a higher swing low and higher swing high), as shown on the following chart.

A drop and hold below the 50 MA on the following weekly chart of the SPX:VIX ratio could signal that we'll see another leg down on the SPX.

For further clues on such a possibility, keep an eye on the following daily chart of the SPX:VIX ratio.

If price drops and holds below its 200 MA, if the RSI drops and holds below 50.00, and if the MACD and PMO form and hold bearish crossovers, we'll see the SPX drop, possibly to a new weekly swing low, especially if a bearish Death Cross reforms and holds on the SPX:VIX ratio weekly timeframe.

* UPDATE Aug. 22...

Noteworthy today...as at 1:11pm ET:

• the SPX has gapped down on the open and plunged to well below last week's low, as shown on the weekly chart,
• the SPX:VIX ratio has dropped below both 50 and 200 MAs, as shown on the weekly chart,
• and the SPX:VIX ratio has dropped below its 200 MA, but is still above the 50 MA, the RSI has dropped below 50.00, and bearish crossovers have formed on the MACD and PMO, as shown on the daily chart.

We'll see if the SPX continues to weaken, along with the SPX:VIX ratio, as traders await Fed Chairman Powell's remarks on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for any hints of upcoming interest rate hikes, either more hawkish or dovish than anticipated.

However, I seem to recall that Chair Powell has not, typically, telegraphed the Fed's intentions on future rates in his previous Jackson Hole speeches...so, I wouldn't expect him to veer off course in this one.

P.S. The SPX closed at 4137.99, after making a low of 4129.86 today.

Source: Federal Reserve

* UPDATE Aug. 26...

Fed Chairman Powell spooked U.S. markets with his unmistakable hawkish outlook for interest rates and the pain ahead for Americans and companies...

Source: ZeroHedge

The SPX and other Major Indices plunged on the news...and closed at/near their lows of the day.

This may be the catalyst that begins the next leg down on the weekly timeframe, as outlined above.

 SPX Daily

* UPDATE Sept. 3...

With approximately half of all U.S. companies anticipating that they will have to lay off workers over the next 12 months, and many Americans becoming homeless, President Biden should get busy and concentrate on fixing his broken economy (of his own making), instead of demonizing half of the country, as he did in his reprehensible speech on Thursday.

Source: ZeroHedge

Joe Biden Speech Sept. 1, 2022

The stocks markets have erased all of their gains made since Biden took office on January 2021.

So, he's even ruined that segment of America with his out-of-control and debt-ridden spending packages.

The National Debt owed per taxpayer is nearly $245,000 and rising by the nano-second!

It seems that Joe's fond of red!

N.B. Until the President drastically changes course (a good start would be to unleash the oil and gas industry and drop his overly-restrictive regulations), trade with caution!

Where Did Your Infrastructure $ Go? 🤔

As if spending $1.2 Trillion on Joe Biden's so-called Infrastructure bill wasn't enough pain inflicted on taxpayers last November, they will have to cough up another $500,000 to pay for the construction of a wall around his Delaware private beach house.

Meanwhile, he refuses to finish constructing the wall along the southern border to secure the safety of all Americans.

And, Democrat House speaker Nancy Pelosi has shelved a bill to provide extra badly-needed funding for police forces around the country...so that Democrats could double the size of the IRS and begin their Green New Deal agenda, while taxing Americans another $739 Billion.

Democrats could care less about your safety and security...or your quest to survive on an adequate income!

Selfish and hypocritical, no? 🤔

Source: Fox News

Source: The Washington Times

Source: Fox News

Source: Fox News